Europe’s transport infrastructure is not ready to face climate change, a recent comprehensive analysis shows. Climate extremes are already affecting all transport modes across large parts of the European Union (EU), with billions of euros of economic damage even for single events. Between 1980 and 2023, climate-related extreme events in the EU accounted for approximately €738 billion in economic losses, of which €119 billion in 2021 and 2022 alone. Of all recent events, floods are currently responsible for the greatest economic losses, particularly for railways and roads.

The transport infrastructure in France, Italy, and Germany experienced the highest exposure to climate extremes in recent years. Exposure was lowest in Estonia, Latvia, and Denmark.

Estimates

Experts assessed the current impacts and future exposure of the EU’s transport network to a range of extreme events: river floods, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. They looked at the impact of these events to airports, maritime and inland ports, roads, railways, and inland waterways.

They made future projections for mid-century (2040–2069) and the end of the century (2070–2099) compared to historical conditions (1980–2009). They used several climate models and a climate change scenario that approximates the trajectory of current climate policies.

Current exposure

Airports: Now exposed to all extremes

Heatwaves in the summer of 2023 triggered 55 separate wildfires across Sicily, leading to flight cancellations and damage to the local economy. Storms, windstorms, floods, heatwaves and wildfires are climate extremes that affect European airport infrastructure the most, and their impact is increasing. Impacts include runway cracking, flooding, and melting, causing flight delays, suspensions, and full airport closures.

Ports: Vulnerable to storms and flooding

River ports and seaports are affected especially by high winds and flooding. Impacts include damages to port infrastructure such as terminals, cranes and industrial facilities, damages to critical infrastructure in the surrounding area on which the port relies, and logistical losses incurred by port operators, carriers, and shippers.

Inland waterways: Droughts disturb supply chains

Droughts impact ship and port operations by reducing water levels, causing severe disruption to supply chains. In 2018, low water levels on the Rhine River resulted in an economic loss of €2.7 billion in Germany and the Netherlands.

Railways and roads: Vulnerable to heat and flooding

Asphalt rutting and rail track buckling because of extreme heat can impact roads and railways. Dried-out soils cause soil shrinkage and, consequently, damage to buildings and infrastructure. Floods can cause extensive road and rail infrastructure damage, and flash floods can trigger landslides, jeopardizing the foundations of roads and railway tracks. In France, Italy, and Germany, 72 flood events between 2010 and 2018 caused damages to railways and roads exceeding €6 billion. One event, the July 2021 flood event, caused between €700 million and €2 billion of damage to Germany’s road and railway infrastructure.

Future exposure

Sharp increase heatwaves

Heatwaves present the most severe increase in exposure, potentially up to 20 times locally by mid-century and up to 30 times by the end of the century. The Mediterranean region faces the highest increase. Already by mid-century, exposure will likely increase for more than 90 % of the transport network.

Followed by droughts, wildfires, and floods

Following heatwaves, the exposure increase is greatest for droughts, wildfires, and floods. By mid-century, up to 45 % of railways and roads and 40 % of inland waterways are projected to face drought conditions, increasing to over 70 % of the inland waterways network by the end of the century. By mid-century, railways and roads are projected to face up to 15 times as many wildfires compared to the historical period and up to 5 times as many floods. By the end of the century, these increases are up to 26 times and 8 times, respectively. The increases in exposure are largest for southern and eastern Europe.

By the end of the century,

• for half of the airports, railways and roads that are already exposed to extreme heatwaves this exposure could be at least 12 times as frequent. For ports this increase could be a factor of 14.
• airports, railways and roads are projected to face up to 26 times as many wildfires locally compared to the historical period.
• railways, roads, ports and airports that are already exposed to droughts are projected to experience up to 18–30 times as many droughts.
• railways and roads could experience up to 8 times as many river flood events locally, while airports, inland waterways, and ports could face up to 4–4.5 times as many.

The Mediterranean region is emerging as a hotspot for multiple hazards, especially wildfires, heatwaves and droughts.

Not ready

The authors of this study conclude that Europe’s transport system apparently is not ready for the increase in the number and severity of climate extremes. According to them, without effective mitigation and adaptation, ‘the reliability and safety of transport infrastructure will be increasingly compromised, with cascading effects on economies and societies’.

Source: Deidda et al., 2026. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 26: 3345–3394.