Droughts and desertification

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

Current drought trends will grow stronger this century. Drought hotspots in future decades are the Mediterranean, northern and northeastern Scandinavia, southern England, and western Europe.

Even if we reach the Paris Agreement targets, droughts will still strongly increase

At 1.5 to 2°C global warming, long-term droughts will happen 5 to 10 times more frequent in large parts of the world. This will affect two thirds of the world population.

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Drought risk increases substantially in large parts of the world, even if we do reach the goals of the Paris agreement

Even under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets of the Paris agreement, drought risk increases significantly in the Mediterranean, central Europe, the Amazon, and southern Africa.

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Droughts are increasing in Central Europe, but precipitation stays the same

The number and intensity of droughts are increasing in parts of Central Europe, not due to a decrease in precipitation, but due to an increase in evaporation under higher temperatures.

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What is driving future water scarcity: climate change or population growth?

The frequency of droughts will increase in the next several decades. In addition, population will grow. Both impacts have been assessed. The conclusion: climate change plays the primary role.

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Future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

The impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts have been assessed for Europe for 1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events.

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Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change

The global area of dryland is increasing rapidly. This was shown from data over the period 1948–2005, and seems to proceed towards the end of this century.

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Desertification in Mediterranean will extend northwards to areas currently not at risk

The larger Mediterranean Basin will have warmer and dryer climate conditions at the end of this century. Desertification in the Mediterranean region

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Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought

Human influence can account for almost 100% of the changes in future hydrological drought in areas such as Asia, Middle East and North-Africa (Mediterranean).

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Projections of climate change impacts on floods and droughts in Germany

many German rivers may experience higher 50-year floods and more frequent occurrences of current 50-year droughts

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Global warming and 21st century drying

Projected climate changes suggest increased drying, driven primarily by increases in evapotranspiration. This will likely have significant ramifications for globally important regions

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Drought length, intensity and timing in Southern France

Temporal trends in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation southern France have resulted in drier and warmer conditions over the region but with a high spatial heterogeneity ...

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