Coastal erosion and coastal floods

The adaptation challenge of US coastal cities

In US coastal cities, many more people and their homes will be at risk of coastal flooding in the coming decades than is often thought. Land subsidence is often neglected in urban planning.

Storm surges in the near future: good news for some, bad news for others

Storm surges contribute to extreme sea levels and, therefore, to the risk of coastal flooding. In Europe, storm surge is projected to decrease in the Mediterranean and increase along the North Sea.

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Subsidence coastal cities contributes more to relative sea level rise than previously thought

In several coastal cities, land subsidence is much faster than the IPCC reported in its latest assessment, data for 48 coastal cities, representing 20% of the global urban population, shows.

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Coastal flood risk increases much faster than previously thought

The global land area that is below mean sea level increases much faster in the earlier stages of sea level rise than previously thought. This is bad news for poor coastal communities in particular.

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When sea level rise accelerates, so will the erosion of rock coast cliffs

Over 50% of global coastlines are rock coasts. Retreat rates of rock coast cliffs will likely accelerate this century, by at least 3–7 times present-day rates at a UK coast, scientists show.

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What high-end sea level rise should we plan for? 1.55 m by 2100, scientists conclude

Experts studied all the available information on sea level rise projections and concluded that 1.55 m sea level rise by 2100 is the plausible high-end estimate we should use for adaptation planning.

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Vast majority of people exposed to flooding are too poor to protect themselves

Without adequate flood protection, nearly one in four of the world’s population has at least 1% chance of getting wet feet, or worse, every year. Most of them live in low-income countries.

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Human interventions in rivers outpace threats from climate change

The impacts of dam building and land-use change on sediment fluxes in rivers outpace the growing threats from climate change, with dramatic consequences for densely populated river deltas.

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Multi-century sea level rise may lead to unprecedented threats to coastal cities

Even the 2 °C limit of the Paris Agreement would lead to a median 4.7 m of global mean sea level rise on the long run and threaten land now home to roughly 10% of the global population.

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Frequency of extreme sea levels will increase dramatically in many parts of the world’s coasts

Even if global warming does not exceed the 2 °C limit of the Paris Agreement, the present-day once-a-century extreme sea level will become an annual event along many coastlines by 2100

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How will different rates of sea-level rise determine the future of the Wadden Sea?

The future of the tidal flats of the Wadden Sea, a valuable nature reserve in the Northwest of Europe, depends on the rate of sea-level rise. This rate may increase so fast that the flats will drown.

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Sandy coastlines worldwide under threat of erosion

Almost half of the world’s sandy beaches could be gone by the end of the century. A substantial proportion of the threatened sandy shorelines are in densely populated areas.

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19% of the world’s population lives on sinking land

Land subsidence is a major contributor to flood risk, threatening 15 of the 20 major coastal cities ranked with the highest flood risk worldwide.

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Sea-level rise determines the future of our deltas

Global delta land area will decrease if relative sea-level rise exceeds about 5.5 mm per year. 5% of total global delta area may be gone in 2100 under a high-end scenario of climate change.

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How much will Europe’s sandy beaches erode when sea level rises?

As a result of sea level rise, the shorelines of sandy beaches in Europe may ‘potentially’ retreat by tens to a few hundred metres between now and 2100, scientists conclude.

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For Europe’s high value coastal conurbations extra flood protection pays off

The consequences for Europe of doing nothing to the increase of extreme sea levels are hundreds of billions of Euros damage per year by 2100. Extra cost-effective protection reduces this risk by 95%.

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Ten per cent of global mean sea level rise is water lost from land

It's not just ice melt from mountain glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica, and ocean warming that leads to sea level rise. A large contribution is water that fresh water reserves on land have lost.

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Global sea level rise is accelerating by an extra mm per decade

Between 1991 and 2019 sea level rise has accelerated. The rate of sea level rise is now 1 mm per decade faster than 10 years ago.

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Global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding strongly underestimated

The elevation of densely populated coastal zones appears to be much lower than has been assumed so far. The global impacts of sea-level rise will likely be far greater than studies so far have shown.

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Good news: Global vulnerability to climate-related hazards is decreasing, so far.

Even though the number of hazards and the number of people exposed to them has increased, hazard vulnerability has dropped strongly. Clearly, investing in protection and resilience pays off.

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So far, intertidal flats in the Wadden Sea can easily keep up with sea-level rise

In the period 1998 to 2016, the intertidal flats in the German Wadden Sea have accreted with rates ranging from 4 to 22 mm/year, strongly exceeding the observed recent mean sea-level rise.

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Extreme coastal water levels much higher due to combination of storm
 surge and waves

The probability of facing a 1 in 100‐year event is more than doubled in 30% of the global coastlines when accounting for the dependence between storm surges and waves.

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Sea level rise in 2100 could exceed 2 m, experts conclude

The experts find it plausible that sea level rise could exceed 2 m by 2100 under the business as usual scenario, more than twice the upper value put forward by the IPCC in 2014.

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Currently, melting glaciers contribute almost 30 per cent to observed sea level rise

Total ice volume of the world’s glaciers equals 0.4 metres of potential sea level rise. Glacier ice loss over the period 1961 to 2016 contributed about 27 millimetres to global mean sea level rise.

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Are the world’s sandy shorelines eroding? Not according to the latest data!

In 1985, it was estimated that 70% of the world’s sandy shorelines were eroding. A new assessment, based on 33 years of satellite images, paints quite a different picture.

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Extreme sea levels, not socioeconomic changes, are the main driver of Europe’s future coastal flood risk

If we do not upgrade our flood protection standards, Europe’s coastal flood risk may increase up to 75 - 770 times the current risk. Mainly because extreme sea levels are changing.

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Storm-surge barrier is not enough to protect Venice, experts say

More needs to be done to protect the lagoon and the city in addition to the MOSE barrier, experts state. One option: raising the city by injecting fluid cement or water in the city’s subsoil.

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The future of our coastal wetlands may not be that dramatic

Global-scale projections suggest that between 20% and 90% of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost by 2100. Too dramatic, scientists argue in a recent publication in Nature.

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Tenfold reduction of global flood risk: it pays of to raise the dikes when sea level rises

What will be the impact of global warming on coastal flood risk if we do succeed in restricting warming at 2°C, following the Paris Agreement? Still high, unless we keep on raising the dikes.

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Different ways to reach the Paris Agreement goals, different impacts for coastal management

The goals of the Paris Agreement can be reached along various trajectories of global warming, each leading to different rates of sea level rise and different impacts for coastal management.

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The number of people dying from storm surge floods is decreasing

Efforts to reduce coastal flood risk have been successful: since 1900 the occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single coastal flood events has decreased over time.

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Rate of sea level rise is accelerating, as predicted

The rate of global mean sea level rise is accelerating: from 1.1 mm/year in the period 1901-1990 to more than 3 mm/year in the last decade. For a large part due to thermal expansion of the oceans.

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Sea level rise and storm surges, a complicated relationship

Future coastal flood risk depends on the combined effect of sea level rise and storm surges, along with the effects of tides, waves and land subsidence. How this turns out is a complicated story.

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Ambitious climate policies are needed to avoid fast sea level rise

If we do not succeed in mitigating global warming, sea level may rise up to 2 m in 2100. Ambitious climate policies are needed to avoid the most severe impacts from rising sea levels around the globe.

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When sea level rise accelerates, inland migration may not be that easy

Recently, scientists showed that sea level might rise much faster than projected by the IPCC in its latest assessment report. What if they are correct, and large-scale inland migration takes place?

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What if the past is the key to the future? We may start losing coastal deltas 50 years from now

Sea level rise slow down 7500 years ago started delta formation globally. What if the past is a key to the future? Will accelerating sea level rise this century be a tipping point of delta collapse?

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Deltas at the Greenland coast are growing due to a warmer climate

Since the 1980s, the deltas at the Greenland coast have been extending into the sea due to increased freshwater runoff from the ice sheet and more sediment transport to the coast.

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Historic palaces of Venice provide a clue for sea level rise since 1350

Sea level rise reconstructed step by step. Submerged steps of water stairs of palaces on the Grand Canal provide an exceptionally long series of data on sea level rise.

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Just a few cm of sea-level rise may double the frequency of coastal flooding

Only 5-10 cm of sea-level rise may more than double the frequency of coastal flooding in the Tropics as early as 2030. Some of the largest cities in the world may face a dire future.

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Current once-in-a-hundred-years flood levels along US coastline may occur every few years by 2050

Along the US east coast sea level rise may lead to strong amplification of high frequency flood events. Along the west coast, on the other hand, amplification is strongest for lower frequency flooding

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Latest estimate of current rate of global sea level rise: 3.5 mm per year

The rate of global mean sea level rise has increased over the last two decades, mainly due to increased land ice loss from Greenland. Over the period 2004-2015 sea level rose about 3.5 mm per year.

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Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe’s coasts

Future extreme sea levels along Europe’s coasts are mainly driven by relative sea level rise. Averaged over Europe, changes in tides, storm surges and wave set up contribute less than 20%.

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How to decide on adaptation when the future is highly uncertain?

Presented by Marjolijn Haasnoot of the Netherlands’ research institute Deltares and Delft University of Technology at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference in Glasgow in June 2017.

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The Dutch are drilling in the North Sea to reconstruct sea level rise

How did the land under the North Sea submerge 4,000 years ago? Dutch researchers are drilling in the North Sea to unravel this story and reconstruct sea level rise.

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High-end sea level rise estimates when Antarctic ice shelves break up

A new high-end projection for global sea level rise, based on a recent study on the impact of Antarctic ice mass loss, shows sea level rise in 2100 may be much higher than the recent IPCC estimate.

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Climate change impacts on dune erosion along the Dutch coast

The Dutch coast is eroding. A recent study shows that the volume of eroded dune sand increases linearly with sea level rise by little over 20 % per meter sea level rise.

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Launched: coastal hazard assessment app

For developing countries the assessment of coastal hazards is often hampered by lack of data. Dutch researchers of Deltares developed an app to use global open assess data for these assessments.

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How high will the seas rise?

Previous sea level rise projections may have underestimated the contribution of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Recent studies lead to upward adjustment of estimated sea level rise in 2100.

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Protecting Poland against future coastal floods is not that expensive

Impacts of future sea level rise and storm surges on the Polish coastal zone may be much less than previous studies indicated. And so are adaptation costs to strengthen coastal flood defences.

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Lower wind speed and waves along the Irish coast this century

According to the latest research, wind extremes and storminess over the North Atlantic Ocean will decrease this century. As a result, future waves along the Irish coast will be somewhat lower as well.

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Storm surge levels increase along Northern Europe’s coastline

Future trends in storm surge level changes along the European coastline show an increase for Northern Europe and small or no changes for Southern Europe.

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Cretan beaches (Greece) highly vulnerable to sea level rise

High sea level rise may be catastrophic for the beaches of Crete. Strong erosion may require costly adaptation measures to ensure their long-term sustainability.

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Sand Motor: Mother Nature helps the Dutch to protect their coast

The sea takes sand from the Dutch coast that is replenished by depositing sand on the beaches and in the offshore. The Dutch have found a more natural way to protect their coast: the Sand Motor.

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Preparing for a risky future

A new report from the World Bank warns that the world is ill-prepared for an increase in the number of disasters in large cities.

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Waves overtopping breakwaters increase Catalan ports’ vulnerability to sea level rise

One of the greatest impacts of sea level rise on seaports is related to wave overtopping. Sea level rise increases overtopping and potentially endangers boats and other assets.

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Adaptation to sea level rise: where to protect and when to start?

Presented by Sally Brown (University of Southampton, UK) and Daniel Lincke (Global Climate Forum, Germany) at the Adaptation Futures Conference in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, May 2016

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More water stored on land slowed down sea level rise in last decade

Over the last years, climate-driven changes such as large-scale floods have increased the volume of water on land. This increase slowed down sea level rise.

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Future flood losses in major coastal cities

We shouldn’t just look at the consequences of a flood to conclude which deltas are most vulnerable. We should include flood probability, and thus flood protection infrastructure, as well.

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Salt marshes will survive sea level rise

Sea level rise over the next decades is not an immediate, catastrophic threat to many marshes: marshes will survive in place under relatively fast rates of sea level rise

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Benefits of protecting London from the sea

Options have been investigated for the future of protecting London from flooding from the sea. Economic analyses have shown that improving the existing flood defences

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Delfland Sand Engine, from reactive to proactive coastal protection

Along the Holland coast an experiment is being carried out with a concentrated mega-nourishment with 20 million m3 of sand (the so-called Delfland Sand Engine).

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North Sea storm surge changes in the 21st century

Extreme storm surge heights likely will show a small increase toward the coasts of the German Bight with stronger changes along the North Frisian Islands ...

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