Previously in ClimateChangePost
There is a clear, negative effect of wildfires in Southern Europe on regional economy, an analysis of data over the period 2010-2018 shows. The impact on employment seems to be small, though.
For 2050, economic impacts in terms of GDP losses may be up to 3.8 per cent under a low-end, and up to 7.3 per cent under a high-end scenario of climate change.
The number of days with adverse fire weather conditions has increased over the last 30 years over the Iberian Peninsula and eastern Balkans. A decrease was observed for Greece, Cyprus, and Turkey.
Annual discharge of many European rivers has changed, but not necessarily due to climate change. In Spain, for instance, increases in irrigated areas and afforestation have played a major role.
Large wildfires across Portugal and Spain can be classified into four types of large wildfires, depending on different combinations of heat, drought and wind that promote these fires.
From north to south along the Spanish coastline, flood cases are more severe and damaging. The number of flood cases increases in the opposite direction. Halfway, near Málaga, flood risk is highest.
When the Mediterranean Sea warms up, hurricanes in the area are likely to become more vigorous. Their winds will be stronger, and they will lead to more intense precipitation, increasing flood risk.
Trends in burnt area in Portugal and Spain illustrate the complicated relationship between population and fire incidence. Rural abandonment means fewer fires but more fuel for extreme events.
Burned area over Mediterranean Europe may increase by 40-54% under 1.5°C global warming. Higher levels of global warming increase drought conditions that in turn lead to larger burned areas.
Europe’s summer season starts earlier, by 4 days per decade. As a result, mega heat waves may occur unusually early in the year when compared to the historical record. This was the case in 2017.
Unexpectedly, mushroom productivity the Mediterranean may increase towards 2100. The fruiting season may last longer due to more precipitation at the beginning and warmer weather at the end.
In Spain and Portugal the number of heat waves, their duration and intensity will increase in the course of this century. At the same time, less cold spells will occur, and they will become less cold.
Anthropogenic climate change will likely alter ecosystems in the Mediterranean this century in a way that is without precedent during the past 10,000 years.
Trends of increasing numbers of flash floods in, for instance, Spain agree with the IPCC hypothesis about the increase in both torrential events and people’s vulnerability and exposure to floods.
In the future, Spain could face extreme-behavior wildland fires beyond firefighting capacity, scientists warn.
One of the greatest impacts of sea level rise on seaports is related to wave overtopping. Sea level rise increases overtopping and potentially endangers boats and other assets.
Air pollution is a serious health concern in many parts of the world. Projections of air quality changes over Europe under climate change are highly uncertain, however.
Premium-quality wine areas in Europe are at risk due to climate change.
For the second half this century an intense increase in accumulated heat in central and southern Spain is projected, which would negatively impact wine quality in these regions.
The global area of dryland is increasing rapidly. This was shown from data over the period 1948–2005, and seems to proceed towards the end of this century.
The semiarid Guadiana Basin in the southwestern central plateau of Spain (mostly within the Extremadura region) is expected to be one of the basins most negatively affected
The combined effects of projected climate change and groundwater pumping has been assessed for a catchment in the Upper Guadiana basin (central Spain)
Climate change is considered a large threat to especially montane species. These species often inhabit narrow elevational ranges
The vulnerability of the Pyrenean ski resorts to projected changes in the snowpack under various future climate scenarios has been analyzed. A shorter ski-season length
Does climate change affect the erosion of vineyard soils in the Mediterranean? Recent results for a Spanish study area show that year-to-year variability is too high
Changes in coastal wave patterns due to the effect of climate change can affect harbour agitation (oscillations within the port due to wind waves).
Temperature and rainfall intensity increase has advanced flowering for a number of winter cereals in Spain.
The impact of climate change on natural groundwater recharge has been assessed for southeast Spain. Groundwater recharge will decrease
There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature
European wine farms show considerable potential to improve their economic performance, and thereby ease their situation in a global change scenario.
Desalination is being presented increasingly as a techno-social fix, against the pressures of urbanization, climate change and population on freshwater resources. There is also a downside
The headwaters of the main Spanish rivers are located in mountainous territories where late-autumn and winter precipitation falls in the form of snow leading to the formation of a sustained snowpack.
An analysis of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods was conducted at a national scale in Spain for the periods 1942–2009, 1949–2009 and 1959–2009.
In the past, the number of fires in North-East Spain decreased, indicating that past improvements in management actions have more than counterbalanced the climatic trend.
Between 1959 and 2005 the occurrence of warm events in the winter (December to March) in the Ebro basin has increased. This explains the change in snow accumulation
The Mediterranean Sea is warming in both shallow and deep waters. This warming is part of global climate trends and not a regional phenomenon.
An assessment was made of the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six alpine grasslands, two subalpine (and alpine) scrublands and four subalpine forests
The Llobregat River basin in the eastern part of Catalonia (northeast of Spain) has all the specific characteristics to develop severe flash floods
Over the past 30 years, wild land fires have became more extreme, with fire behaviour more and more often exceeding fire fighting capabilities
At the 2050 horizon, temperatures are expected to rise by 3°C and precipitation to decrease by 10–25% during spring and summer. As a result, water resources could drop by 25–35% in the Ebro valley.
Severe hurricane-force (> 32.6 m/s) storms can cause floods in west-European coastal regions and inflict large-scale damage on infrastructure and agriculture.
The combined effect of changes in recharge, crop water demand and sea level rise on groundwater levels and flow into coastal wetlands was studied for three Mediterranean areas ...
The export of agricultural products from the hot and dry Region of Murcia is a ‘virtual’ export of water from a water-scarce region ...
During the period 1958–2005 the thermal conditions for the development and maturation of grapes in north-western Spain have improved ...
Mediterranean regions are subject to violent flash floods that could be intensified in the future due to forest fire and/or climate change ...
A future reduction in ski season length and a drop in the number of skiers have been projected for Andorra, especially at the lowest elevation ski resorts ...
Substantial reductions in potential groundwater recharge are projected for the 21st century in southern Europe and increases in northern Europe ...
A more than 3-fold increase of the area under risk of flooding at the end of the 21st century is projected for the western Basque coast ...
Sandy beaches on the Basque coast are expected to suffer shoreline retreats of between 25% and 40% of the average beach width in the 21st century ...
urrently fuel-humidity limited regions in NE Spain could suffer a drastic shift of fire regime with an up to 8 fold increase of annual burned area in 2100 ...
According to calculations, in the absence of any climate-induced sea level rise, current (moderate) subsidence rates would lead to flooding of about 26 % ...
The role of climate and human-driven fuel changes on the fire regime change over the last 130 years in the Valencia province of Spain ...