Europe and climate change - Climatechangepost.com

Services European forests provide to society …

Climate change outpaces the abilities of tree species to migrate north. Forest ecosystem services, including recreation and providing food, medicine and wood for construction, will decline.

Clear footprint of global warming on …

The summer of 2022 was Europe’s hottest since 2003. A study for Switzerland shows that 60% of the people that died from heat that summer would not have died in the absence of global warming.

Facing the Climate Emergency

A book that changes the way you look at the daily rollercoaster of alarming news of the impacts of climate change, and makes you want to act yourself.

70 years from now, nearly half …

By 2100, over 3 billion people worldwide may live in urban areas with high humid heat stress, more than three times the current situation. Planting trees may not be effective in mitigating this.

More routes for trans-Arctic shipping will …

Trans-Arctic shipping will be relatively risky until about 2045, because of fast ice formation and sea ice ridging. But new routes across the Arctic will open in due course, perhaps as early as 2070.

The best way to combat increasing …

Water storage areas that reduce river flood peaks are economically the most attractive option to adapt the river system to the changing climate, scientists conclude.

How climate change is affecting global …

Migration in response to climate change is not an option for an increasing number of poor people. They lack the financial means to move and are the ‘trapped population’.

Economic damage of wildfires in Southern …

There is a clear, negative effect of wildfires in Southern Europe on regional economy, an analysis of data over the period 2010-2018 shows. The impact on employment seems to be small, though.

Flood hazard of ice-dammed lakes at …

At melting glaciers, lakes are being formed where meltwater gets trapped behind debris or ice dams. Floods caused by outbursts of ice-dammed lakes have become less extreme over the past 120 years.

What is driving future fluvial flood …

Mainly exposure and to a lesser extent climate change are increasing flood risk by hundreds of percent this century. Measures reducing vulnerability can counterbalance this risk by only 15%.

New: The Geography of Future Water …

The ‘Geography of Future Water Challenges’, a new book on the many water challenges around the globe, to be launched at the UN Water Conference, is now available online.

Unprecedented fire activity in the Arctic …

The summer of 2020 was the warmest in four decades. According to satellite data, burned area was sevenfold larger in 2020 than the 1982–2020 average. The link to climate change is clear.

Mixing signals of different catchments blurs …

Increased extreme precipitation in recent decades has increased river floods globally. Previous studies failed to detect this because mixing catchments with different flood types blurred the results.

Longer growing seasons will not offset …

The combination of global changes in crop yields, cropping frequency and cropland area determines the impact of climate change on global agricultural production, and all of them will decrease.

At least half of all glaciers …

Even if global temperatures rise by no more than 1.5°C, around 104,000 glaciers will disappear by 2100. At least half of those will vanish by 2050.

Subsidence coastal cities contributes more to …

In several coastal cities, land subsidence is much faster than the IPCC reported in its latest assessment, data for 48 coastal cities, representing 20% of the global urban population, shows.

What is causing increased disaster losses, …

Past economic losses by extreme weather events are not due to climate change. But ‘the times they are a changing‘. Today, many events do show a climate change fingerprint in loss and damage.

Coastal flood risk increases much faster …

The global land area that is below mean sea level increases much faster in the earlier stages of sea level rise than previously thought. This is bad news for poor coastal communities in particular.

Dryer summers and heavier rainfall: a …

Over the last 100 years, the severity of droughts has increased in Europe. Not due to less precipitation, but to higher temperatures that lead to more evaporation by plants and from the soil.

More lightning in the north, less …

Weather regimes with thunderstorms and lightning shift to the north, increasing lightning frequency at higher latitudes in the summer. More thunderstorms are also expected over the Alps.

The costs of damage of permafrost …

The thawing of the permafrost in the Arctic is causing damage to the infrastructure and buildings of the Arctic states. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs.

ClimateChangePost will join National Disasters Expo …

On 7-8 December 2022, I will join the National Disasters Expo in Singapore, the world’s leading event for the management and mitigation of natural disasters.

When sea level rise accelerates, so …

Over 50% of global coastlines are rock coasts. Retreat rates of rock coast cliffs will likely accelerate this century, by at least 3–7 times present-day rates at a UK coast, scientists show.

What high-end sea level rise should …

Experts studied all the available information on sea level rise projections and concluded that 1.55 m sea level rise by 2100 is the plausible high-end estimate we should use for adaptation planning.

Health at the mercy of fossil …

Each year the Lancet, one of the world’s leading medical journals, publishes a report on the global status on health and climate change. Health is still at the mercy of fossil fuels, they conclude.

Rewetting our peatlands not only serves …

Drained peatlands make up only 3% of the agricultural land in the European Union but emit 25% of the total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. The advantages of rewetting them are manifold.

Vast majority of people exposed to …

Without adequate flood protection, nearly one in four of the world’s population has at least 1% chance of getting wet feet, or worse, every year. Most of them live in low-income countries.

Human interventions in rivers outpace threats …

The impacts of dam building and land-use change on sediment fluxes in rivers outpace the growing threats from climate change, with dramatic consequences for densely populated river deltas.

Insect biodiversity is changing because of …

Where land is used for high-intensity agriculture, the joint impact of agriculture and climate warming has reduced insect abundance and species richness by 49% and 27%, global observations show.

A flaw in classic approach to …

The 2021 floods in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands were more than just ‘heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water’, experts conclude. We must adapt a ‘landscape perspective’ to flooding.

Each summer will last about half …

By 2100, compared with 2014, average summer in the Northern Hemisphere will last 20% longer under a moderate, and 50% longer under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Latest projections of future temperatures over …

Warming will be largest both in northern and southern Europe. In northern Europe, in particular the coldest winters will be less cold. In southern Europe, the hottest summers will be much hotter.

More heat stress for cattle, less …

Climate change will increase heat stress for cattle. By the end of the century, heat stress could reduce global milk and meat production by between 3.7% and 9.8% of production value in 2005.

Tourism and energy of southern European …

For 2050, economic impacts in terms of GDP losses may be up to 3.8 per cent under a low-end, and up to 7.3 per cent under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Climate extremes have already changed over …

Half of European territory is now experiencing unusually warm temperatures in the summer compared to 50 years ago. Winter precipitation has increased in the North, drought intensity in the South.

Heat exposure outdoor workers already leads …

Estimates so far have underestimated global labor loss due to humid heat exposure for outdoor workers. This loss amounts to a global productivity loss of 2.1 trillion USD, 1.7% of global GDP.

Multi-century sea level rise may lead …

Even the 2 °C limit of the Paris Agreement would lead to a median 4.7 m of global mean sea level rise on the long run and threaten land now home to roughly 10% of the global population.

Frequency of extreme sea levels will …

Even if global warming does not exceed the 2 °C limit of the Paris Agreement, the present-day once-a-century extreme sea level will become an annual event along many coastlines by 2100

Future increase of heat stress productivity …

The average productivity loss in Europe in a high-end climate change scenario is likely to be less than 1% by 2100, and could be much less as societies adapt.

Trees can cool European cities up …

The cooling effect of trees is high in cities in Central and Eastern Europe, and on the British Isles, and much less in Southern Europe, where limited soil moisture availability limits transpiration.

Wildfire smoke particles can be deadly, …

Fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometre is a serious health threat because it can enter the lungs. Particles from wildfire smoke are more lethal than other - urban – particles.

Wine quality and global warming: When …

So far, substantial warming in two of the world’s top red wine regions has increased average wine quality, but a tipping point in the effect of climate change on wine quality may be nearby.

Loss of sea ice in the …

Ship navigation routes are opening across the Arctic. Summer sea ice extent has been declining for half a century. Opportunities for the economy, maybe not so much for local communities.

Intense rainstorms are moving more slowly, …

Slowly moving rainstorms causing flash floods like those in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands in the summer of 2021, may become up to 14 times more frequent in Europe by 2100.

Adaptation may strongly limit Europe’s economic …

Annual damage of droughts in Europe is now €9 billion per year. Without adaptation, a 3,5 times increase at 2°C global warming is projected in 2100. With adaptation, the impact is much less.

Sandy coastlines worldwide under threat of …

Almost half of the world’s sandy beaches could be gone by the end of the century. A substantial proportion of the threatened sandy shorelines are in densely populated areas.

Is Europe’s infrastructure resilient enough for …

Climate change impact on extreme precipitation in Europe calls into question the resilience of the existing infrastructure under more frequent and intense rainstorms in the future.

19% of the world’s population lives …

Land subsidence is a major contributor to flood risk, threatening 15 of the 20 major coastal cities ranked with the highest flood risk worldwide.

Fingerprint of climate change in recent …

Scientists conclude that climate change has increased the likelihood and intensity of flash flooding in Western Europe and will continue to do so in a warming climate.

Weather conditions for wildfires have changed …

The number of days with adverse fire weather conditions has increased over the last 30 years over the Iberian Peninsula and eastern Balkans. A decrease was observed for Greece, Cyprus, and Turkey.

A European perspective on recent floods …

Catastrophic flood events may seem highly unlikely but are less unique when you look beyond national borders. In a European perspective, extreme flood events do happen every now and then.

Sea-level rise determines the future of …

Global delta land area will decrease if relative sea-level rise exceeds about 5.5 mm per year. 5% of total global delta area may be gone in 2100 under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Drought and heatwave crop losses in …

The frequency of extreme weather events in Europe has increased over time. As a result, drought and heatwave crop production losses increased from 2.2% in 1964-1990 to 7.3% in 1991-2015.

In a changing climate, the 100-year …

In a changing climate, concepts like the ‘100-year flood event’ are misleading. Return periods of floods are changing. Whether they increase or decrease, depends on climate zones.

Extreme drought threatens the lives of …

Afghanistan faces the lowest level of rainfall in years. Since 2018, drought has displaced a quarter of a million people, and the numbers are rising.

Climate change already increases the number …

Small- to medium-sized rockfalls now occur up to 300 m higher in the Alps than 70 years ago. The number of rockfalls has increased since the 2000s, data since 1945 show.

The benefits and price tag of …

Greening 35% of European urban surfaces would cool these surfaces by between 2.5°C and 6°C, reduce urban runoff by about 17.5%, and save up to 55.8 Mtons carbon dioxide emissions per year.

Heat-related mortality is on the rise …

The increase in the number of people in Europe dying from high temperatures will start to exceed the reduction of the number of people dying from cold spells in the second half of this century.

More and more people die from …

Globally, in the last two decades, the decrease of the annual number of cold-related deaths exceeded the increased of heat-related deaths, leading to a net reduction in the overall death ratio.

Climate change is already increasing health …

It is likely that climate change has already increased the health risks of heat stress, air quality and a number of diseases, globally, a recent literature survey and expert judgment has shown.

The ‘invisible risk’ of heatwaves in …

Heatwaves affect far more sectors than just public health. In the United Kingdom, these risks are ‘invisible’ to policy and research, scientists conclude.

River flood risk of Europe’s road …

The current expected annual direct damage from large river floods to road infrastructure in Europe is about € 230 million per year. Risk hotspots are parts of Germany, France, Italy, and Scandinavia.

What may happen to forestry and …

Global forest area is likely to increase this century, but shrink back towards its present level by 2200. Forest productivity and timber supply will continue to increase through 2200, however.

Update 'Navigating rivers and deltas towards …

An update of the ‘River Basin Delta Tool’ is now online. The tool, first launched on the Climate Adaptation Summit 2021, shows effects of interventions on rivers and deltas and how to bend the trend.

The future of landslides in the …

A study on landslides in the French Central Pyrenees shows that these hazards may occur up to 4 times as often by the end of the century, under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Extreme European heatwaves of 2019 now …

Without climate change, the heatwave of July 2019 in France and the Netherlands, with temperatures over 40 °C, would have been more than 10 times less likely, scientists conclude.

The future of food from the …

The sea can contribute much more to sustainable food production than is currently the case: 12-25 per cent of the increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050.

Escalating summer heat exposure will increase …

By 2100, many European workers will very likely be affected by heat stress. In Southern Europe, 15-60 per cent of the working hours may be lost under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Investment into research must double to …

World’s largest agricultural research partnership seeks to increase funding to $2 billion annually to support global innovation in the pandemic recovery.

Scandinavian winters are getting shorter at …

Northern Europe is warming much faster than the global mean. By mid-century, summers will last about a month longer here, and winters will become one to two months shorter, model projections show.

The number of rivers that may …

The probability of multiple rivers flooding at the same time in Europe is changing. This often disregarded aspect is highly relevant for the capacities of disaster recovery and insurance companies.

Climate change already affects airplane take-offs, …

Higher air temperature means lower air pressure and a longer distance to take off. At Greek airports this distance has increased over the last decades by a few metres per year.

Climate change affects all economies, through …

Climate change negatively affects the global economy, both directly in world regions and transnationally through foreign trade channels. Germany is relatively well off.

Developed countries require larger climate anomalies …

Climate anomalies, in terms of extreme weather events, may lead to disasters. A country’s vulnerability and exposure determines how large these anomalies have to be for a disaster to unfold.

USA and EU responsible for 69 …

The consequences of economic development of high-income countries are passed on to low-income countries. The climate debts the first ones owe to the latter ones have been quantified.

Ocean acidification affects our health in …

The oceans acidify and this affects our health in many ways. Changes include the quantity and quality of seafood, pollutants accumulating in human tissue, and natural toxins released in the air.

How much will Europe’s sandy beaches …

As a result of sea level rise, the shorelines of sandy beaches in Europe may ‘potentially’ retreat by tens to a few hundred metres between now and 2100, scientists conclude.

For Europe’s high value coastal conurbations …

The consequences for Europe of doing nothing to the increase of extreme sea levels are hundreds of billions of Euros damage per year by 2100. Extra cost-effective protection reduces this risk by 95%.

Compound flooding in northwestern Europe: river …

Compound floods, simultaneous high water levels at the coast and in nearby rivers, have been relatively strong and frequent at times in parts of northwestern Europe. It’s not clear why.

Multiyear droughts on the rise in …

For a number of rivers, discharge regime is shifting from snowmelt to rainfall-dominated. The number of European regions affected by multiyear drought is expected to increase as a result.

Risk of food production failures in …

Global breadbaskets are the main regions for food production. The probability of multiple breadbasket failures at the same time has increased substantially for wheat, maize, and soybean.

Climate change is not always the …

Annual discharge of many European rivers has changed, but not necessarily due to climate change. In Spain, for instance, increases in irrigated areas and afforestation have played a major role.

Ten per cent of global mean …

It's not just ice melt from mountain glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica, and ocean warming that leads to sea level rise. A large contribution is water that fresh water reserves on land have lost.

Global sea level rise is accelerating …

Between 1991 and 2019 sea level rise has accelerated. The rate of sea level rise is now 1 mm per decade faster than 10 years ago.

Health adaptation to climate change: a …

Global health adaptation to climate change is moving in a positive direction, but at a relatively slow pace. Countries are spending more on health adaptation, though.

Climate-driven shocks to agriculture spur emigration …

In poor countries, over the period 1960 to 2010, climate-driven reduction in agricultural productivity of 1% from its decennial trend has induced an increase in the emigration rate of about 4.5%.

Urbanization increases heat stress urban dwellers, …

The extra warming in 2050 due to urban expansion will be as significant as, or even stronger than, that caused by global warming, increasing extreme heat risk for billions of urban dwellers.

Experts call for different approach to …

According to a group of experts from all continents it is a political mistake to keep on increasing fire suppression expenditure, while disregarding mitigation and adaptation.

Primary production plants and trees increases …

For future global primary production, the positive impacts of higher CO2 concentrations and higher temperature at high latitudes dominate over the negative impacts of more extreme droughts.

Phytoplankton blooms on lakes are increasing …

A widespread global increase in intense lake phytoplankton blooms since the 1980s suggests that lake warming may counteract management efforts to reduce blooms by reducing nutrient loads.

Europe’s heat waves of 2018 highly …

Recent publications show that Europe’s summer of 2018 was exceptionally warm, with all-time temperature records set across the continent, including Scandinavia, central Europe, and the British Isles.

The loss of glaciers creates opportunities …

When glaciers shrink or disappear, the emerging ice-free basins provide opportunities for building dams to store water and generate electricity through hydropower.

The ‘perfect storm’ of climate change …

Simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries will affect tropical countries the most. They are most dependent on these food sectors but have the lowest capacity to adapt.

Thawing Arctic permafrost may have unexpected …

When permafrost thaws deeper into the soil, soil moisture can change rapidly. The wide range of effects includes less stable infrastructure, changing flood risk, and higher wildfire risk.

Peatlands, a growing net source of …

Drainage of peatlands has transformed large areas from former sinks into net sources of greenhouse gasses. Most of these peatlands need to be rehabilitated to stop global warming at +2 °C.

Annual maximum river flow is changing …

River discharge observations across Europe for the period 1960-2010 show that annual maximum peak flow has increased in northwestern Europe, and decreased in southern and eastern Europe.

Global vulnerability to sea-level rise and …

The elevation of densely populated coastal zones appears to be much lower than has been assumed so far. The global impacts of sea-level rise will likely be far greater than studies so far have shown.

Heat stress risk in Southern Europe …

The time per year that the inhabitants of Athens are exposed to conditions of extreme heat stress has increased since 1960. Extreme heat stress now occurs both earlier and later in the year.

Businesses on their journey to sustainability: …

How can businesses transform to a circular economy, reduce their carbon footprints, and adapt to climate change? A summary of valuable experiences of the speakers at this summit on sustainability.

Climate change doesn’t have to result …

Negative effects of climate change on wheat yields can be avoided by using earlier flowering cultivars. Advanced grain filling reduces the risk of exposure to enhanced drought and heat stresses.

Good news: Global vulnerability to climate-related …

Even though the number of hazards and the number of people exposed to them has increased, hazard vulnerability has dropped strongly. Clearly, investing in protection and resilience pays off.

The pace of smashing extreme temperature …

By the end of this century, far more temperature records will be set under a high-end than under a low-end scenario of climate change, and far more of these records will be ‘smashing’.

So far, intertidal flats in the …

In the period 1998 to 2016, the intertidal flats in the German Wadden Sea have accreted with rates ranging from 4 to 22 mm/year, strongly exceeding the observed recent mean sea-level rise.

Observed loss of carbon in thawing …

Measurements of thawing permafrost in Alaska showed a loss of soil carbon in the upper 55 cm of 5.4% per year, indicating much faster release of carbon dioxide and methane than previously thought.

Does climate change already affect armed …

According to experienced climate and conflict experts, the role of climate in conflicts to date is small compared to other drivers of conflict. Climate change will amplify conflict risk, however.

Temperature and precipitation changes seem to …

A high occurrence of positive temperature anomalies in the lead-up of slope failures in the Italian Alps supports the hypothesis that climate warming is destabilizing slopes at high-elevation sites.

Across Europe, cold extremes are warming …

Where hot extremes have increased by 0.33 °C per decade from 1950 to 2018, the trend for cold extremes is 0.49 °C per decade. A 50% difference!

The Hottest August London Premiere

Screening on the 6th September in London: This film discusses concerns of New York citizens about the future with the hot August weather as a starting point.

Damage and fatalities extreme weather events …

Weather disasters have increased in number and intensity in recent decades. Damage caused by extreme weather events has been on the rise. In terms of casualties the 2003 and 2010 heat waves stand out.

Marine heat waves in the Mediterranean …

Unprecedented mass mortality events, reported in previous summers and resulting from prolonged periods of high sea surface temperatures, seem to become the new standard already by 2050.

Climate change will affect biodiversity, regardless …

Biodiversity of plants and animals on earth will change. At 2 °C global warming, terrestrial ecosystems could lose on average 14% of their current local species, and 22% at 4 °C.

Heat will be a much larger …

Both heat stress and ozone increase mortality, and both are affected by climate change. While the total health burden of ozone will decrease by 2050, heat-related mortality will strongly increase.

Global warming will increase damage of …

River flood risk to European railways, €581 million per year in recent decades, could increase substantially: by up to 310% under a 3 °C warming scenario, according to recent estimates.

Global warming may increase destructive potential …

When the Mediterranean Sea warms up, hurricanes in the area are likely to become more vigorous. Their winds will be stronger, and they will lead to more intense precipitation, increasing flood risk.

Key role of human factors in …

Trends in burnt area in Portugal and Spain illustrate the complicated relationship between population and fire incidence. Rural abandonment means fewer fires but more fuel for extreme events.

Climate extremes have a strong impact …

Almost half of the variability in global maize and spring wheat yields can be explained by climate variability and climate extremes during the growing season.

Extreme coastal water levels much higher …

The probability of facing a 1 in 100‐year event is more than doubled in 30% of the global coastlines when accounting for the dependence between storm surges and waves.

Projections indicate: Ocean biomass declines 5 …

Global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change from the year 1970 to 2100, on average with 5% for every 1 °C of global warming. Declines are largest at the tropics.

Man-made climate change has increased droughts …

Human activities affect the worldwide risk of droughts since the beginning of the twentieth century, according to an analysis of observations, climate reconstructions and tree ring data.

Sea level rise in 2100 could …

The experts find it plausible that sea level rise could exceed 2 m by 2100 under the business as usual scenario, more than twice the upper value put forward by the IPCC in 2014.

Marine heat waves threaten global biodiversity …

The global ocean has warmed substantially over the past century. But that’s not all. Discrete periods of extreme regional warming, called ‘marine heat waves’, have increased in frequency.

Droughts in the soil increase much …

Meteorological droughts will occur more often and last longer. The increase of frequency and duration of droughts in the soil root zone will be much less, a global study shows.

Currently, melting glaciers contribute almost 30 …

Total ice volume of the world’s glaciers equals 0.4 metres of potential sea level rise. Glacier ice loss over the period 1961 to 2016 contributed about 27 millimetres to global mean sea level rise.

Climate change doesn’t have to increase …

Global food insecurity doesn’t have to increase as a result of climate change. Crop yield losses can be small up to the 2050s, provided the right adaptation measures are implemented.

European capitals ranked by exposure to …

In 2050, very severe heat waves are most likely in Valletta (Malta), Madrid, Rome and Sofia. By then, the probability of an extreme heat wave to occur is relatively low only in Amsterdam.

Are the world’s sandy shorelines eroding? …

In 1985, it was estimated that 70% of the world’s sandy shorelines were eroding. A new assessment, based on 33 years of satellite images, paints quite a different picture.

It may take several decades for …

Rewetting peat soils increases both the accumulation of CO2 and the emission of CH4, a much stronger but short-lived greenhouse gas. It takes time for CO2 storage to dominate over the CH4 effect.

When will wildfires show the fingerprint …

Wildfires will occur more frequent and will become more severe as a result of global warming. How do we detect the impact of global warming, knowing that many other factors play a role as well?

Strong impact of warming permafrost on …

By mid-century, little over 100 billion USD of buildings, structures and infrastructure in Russia’s permafrost regions will be negatively affected by permafrost changes, a recent assessment shows.

Alpine rivers may run dry in …

With global warming more precipitation in the mountains will fall as rain. Snow storage in the winter will decrease, reducing low river flow and fresh water availability in the summer.

New: The geography of future water …

Last year, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency published an assessment of the world’s water challenges. A web-based storyboard of this assessment is now available online.

Floods in China will affect the …

In the next two decades, river flood risk will increase particularly in China. Losses in China affect other countries as well, through supply chains and trade. The EU is well adjusted for this.

When the soil dries out, Europe’s …

Evaporation cools the earth surface and hence soil moisture is a constraint on heat wave temperatures. Depletion of soil moisture may strongly amplify future heat waves, like the one of 2010.

Will drought events become more frequent …

Current drought trends will grow stronger this century. Drought hotspots in future decades are the Mediterranean, northern and northeastern Scandinavia, southern England, and western Europe.

From 1.5°C to 2°C global warming …

Most future projections of river flooding focus on vulnerability or exposure, and in direct economic damage. A recent study also presents estimates on numbers of casualties and welfare loss.

Reduced heat exposure and mortality by …

The number of people in Europe exposed to temperatures above the historical record in any summer would increase to 11% of the population in a 1.5 °C warmer world and to 20% in a 2 °C warmer world.

Advertisement – Conference ICE Coastal Management …

Institution of Civil Engineers’ ninth Coastal Management conference will be held in La Rochelle (France) on 24 - 26 September 2019

Extreme sea levels, not socioeconomic changes, …

If we do not upgrade our flood protection standards, Europe’s coastal flood risk may increase up to 75 - 770 times the current risk. Mainly because extreme sea levels are changing.

For ice-free summers in the Arctic …

The likelihood of any September to be completely ice-free by the end of this century at 2 °C global warming is 35%, a recent study shows. If warming is limited to 1.5 °C, this is only a few percent.

The future of our coastal wetlands …

Global-scale projections suggest that between 20% and 90% of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost by 2100. Too dramatic, scientists argue in a recent publication in Nature.

Winter snow depths in Europe are …

Mean and maximum winter snow depths are decreasing over Europe except for the coldest regions. Over the period 1951-2017 this decrease was little over 10% per decade.

New perspectives on the global distribution …

Due to transnational impacts, countries are far more vulnerable than direct impacts suggest. Exposure to climate change impacts in a globalised world turns out bad for The Netherlands.

Is 1.5°C better or worse than …

Scientists are unable to distinguish agricultural impacts occurring with 1.5°C warming from those with 2°C warming. The uncertainties in the impacts of climate, CO2 and trade are simply too large.

Do green roofs mitigate stormwater runoff …

Green roofs can be a good option to reduce stormwater runoff to the urban drainage networks. They may not be that effective for long-lasting, extreme rainfall events, however.

After 2100, decomposition of peatlands will …

Good news: until 2100, more carbon will be stored in peatlands globally. Bad news: this will not persist in time. After 2100, carbon loss from peatlands will strengthen climate change.

Without global warming, current crop yields …

Technological improvements have increased crop yields. Climate change, however, has slowed down the increasing yield trends compared to the yields we would have had without global warming.

What are the climate change impacts …

All over Europe, climate change will increase extreme weather impacts on the roads. This increase will accelerate towards the end of this century. As a result, maintenance needs to be adapted.

Expansion of biofuel crops may be …

+1.5° to +2°C global warming, the Paris targets, will impact crop yields and food prices. The impact of a mitigation policy where croplands are being used for bioenergy crops may be stronger, however.

Sustainable water consumption for irrigation can …

Food security and environmental goals can be achieved in tandem. A major increase of global food production is possible by expanding irrigation sustainably into currently cultivated areas.

Heat-related mortality: warmer regions benefit the …

If we succeed in limiting global warming to well below 2 °C, we may prevent large increases in heat-related mortality across the globe.

Global implications of 1.5 °C and …

If we succeed in stabilizing global warming at 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C, the frequency of the current 1-in-100 year flow shifts to once in 70-90 years or once in 50 years, respectively, in most of the world.

Barriers and opportunities in adapting our …

Proactive adaptation is an opportunity to effectively adapt our cultural heritage to climate change risks. One of the barriers, however, is how to deal with the uncertainties of things to come.

If global warming exceeds 1.5°C, the …

We can learn from the past to see what lies ahead. Vegetation changes since the last ice age show that vegetation composition and structure is at substantial risk of major changes in the near future.

Global warming will increase wheat, rice …

Crop yield losses to insect pests will increase globally with rising temperatures. Compared with the past, these losses increase by tens of percent for wheat, rice and maize crop at 2°C global warming

Main challenge for Mediterranean region: to …

Integrated strategies are needed to increase food production, focusing on both higher irrigation efficiency and higher crop yields of rain-fed cropland, whilst preserving valuable water resources.

On a global scale, landslide hazard …

Landslides are responsible for ca. 14% of all casualties from natural hazards, on a global scale. Human activities may be more detrimental to future landslide incidence than climate change.

Tenfold reduction of global flood risk: …

What will be the impact of global warming on coastal flood risk if we do succeed in restricting warming at 2°C, following the Paris Agreement? Still high, unless we keep on raising the dikes.

Ranking the world on climate security: …

A country’s national security may be negatively affected by climate change. This impact was expressed quantitatively. It turns out that climate security is highest in Europe, with Finland as number 1.

Wind power output increases in northern …

Expected changes in wind energy potential show a north-south division in Europe. In the next 30 years, wind power output will increase by 4%-8% in the North, and decrease up to 6%-12% in the South.

What will our summers look like …

The 10% most extreme summer maximum temperatures in a 2°C warmer world cannot be reached when global warming is restricted at 1.5°C. This corresponds to the most extreme and severe heat waves.

The early onset of Europe’s mega …

Europe’s summer season starts earlier, by 4 days per decade. As a result, mega heat waves may occur unusually early in the year when compared to the historical record. This was the case in 2017.

Warmest night in The Netherlands so …

On Friday 27 July 2018, night temperature in the Netherlands did not drop below 23.6 °C. The hottest night ever measured. An update of climate change and hot cities.

Even if we reach the Paris …

At 1.5 to 2°C global warming, long-term droughts will happen 5 to 10 times more frequent in large parts of the world. This will affect two thirds of the world population.

“North Sea Power Hub” plan to …

What sounds like a project from the future, the upcoming North Sea Wind Power Hub is an ambitious plan that has the goal of building a wind farm on an island right in the middle of the North Sea.

Heat waves: the number one natural …

In the midst of summer in Europe, we present an update of an overview posted on the ClimateChangePost in 2016. We included the results of scientific studies published in the last two years.

Dry, hot and windy weather over …

Current weather conditions over northern Europe are typically the conditions for wildfires to occur. Our longread articles of 2016 on Europe’s wildfire risk are as current as they were two years ago.

Changing drought conditions are linked to …

Drought conditions in the northern Mediterranean are changing, leading to fire weather conditions that have not been explored before. As a result, the frequency of extreme wildfires is increasing.

Changing late spring frost impacts will …

Grapes are vulnerable for frost events at bud break. Frost risk will decrease in western regions and increase in central Europe. This will reshape the distribution of grapevine varieties in Europe.

Reduction European power generation under 1.5°C, …

Climate change will negatively affect power generation in European countries regardless of the level of global warming. The impacts will be stronger for southern than for northern Europe.

Increasing heat stress will strongly reduce …

Increasing heat levels as a result of climate change will substantially reduce labour productivity. Tropical and sub-tropical areas will be particularly affected.

Paris Agreement may have a strong …

An increase from 1.5 °C to 2 °C global warming already doubles the frequency of extreme heat waves over most of the globe and strongly increases the number of people affected.

Europe’s road and rail transport more …

The number of heavy precipitation events that can trigger landslides in central Europe will increase this century, up to 14 additional events per year in 2100

New: The geography of future water …

The geography of future water challenges shows the global water-related challenges of tomorrow, illustrated by a large number of well-designed maps and infographics. Free download.

Mitigating global warming can reduce strong …

On a global basis, moderate climate mitigation can reduce the probability that a summer in 2070 exceeds the historical record temperature of the past 100 years from 80% to 41%.

Different ways to reach the Paris …

The goals of the Paris Agreement can be reached along various trajectories of global warming, each leading to different rates of sea level rise and different impacts for coastal management.

Future heat waves, droughts and floods …

More frequent and hotter heat waves in cities in southern and central Europe, more droughts in the south and more river flooding in the cities of north-western Europe, a recent assessment shows.

Press release: The geography of future …

The geography of future water challenges, a global hotspot analysis of water and climate challenges carried out by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, will be presented on 19 April 2018

More people exposed to heat waves: …

More people will be exposed to heat-related extremes, due to both global warming and population growth. The impact of climate change dominates over population growth, a recent study has shown.

Shift in boreal forest tree species …

A new strategy is urgently needed for boreal forests focused on the replacement of needle-leaved tree species by broad-leaved species. This would reduce fire risk and cool the boreal zone.

Future affordability and coverage climate-risk insurance …

Rising climate-related risks such as from floods and windstorms threaten affordability and coverage availability for society at large. Continuous efforts are needed to address underlying risks.

Annual damage to Europe’s critical infrastructure …

Infrastructure that ensures Europeans’ health, wealth and security will be affected by climate change. Annual damage may increase 10-fold this century, especially due to droughts and heat waves.

In the near future twice as …

In Central Europe heat waves will probably occur twice as often in the coming decades compared with previous decades. For the end of this century 2-4 heat waves are expected per summer.

Lower future river flood peaks in …

Both in Southern and in Northern Europe river flood peaks will decrease. In the South as a result of a decrease in total annual precipitation, in the North due to less snowmelt.

The number of people dying from …

Efforts to reduce coastal flood risk have been successful: since 1900 the occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single coastal flood events has decreased over time.

The combination of hot and humid …

Exposure to extreme hot and humid conditions will rapidly increase throughout the 21st century. Especially in the tropics and mid-latitudes, containing half of the world’s future population.

Rate of sea level rise is …

The rate of global mean sea level rise is accelerating: from 1.1 mm/year in the period 1901-1990 to more than 3 mm/year in the last decade. For a large part due to thermal expansion of the oceans.

Europe will use more energy for …

In Europe, areas with less heating will outweigh areas that need more cooling. Energy demand will increase, however, due to the variation across Europe of future population growth and decline.

More often, flights will be bumpy …

Clear-air turbulence accounts for 24% of weather-related accidents. The volume of this turbulence may double in 50 years over North America, the North Pacific, and Europe under climate change.

Sea level rise and storm surges, …

Future coastal flood risk depends on the combined effect of sea level rise and storm surges, along with the effects of tides, waves and land subsidence. How this turns out is a complicated story.

No evidence so far of more …

Compelling evidence that the number of major river floods is increasing at a global scale is lacking. Generalizations about climate-driven changes in floods based upon previous studies are ungrounded.

Climate change is amplifying Europe’s contrast …

State-of-the-art climate models suggest anthropogenic climate change is amplifying Europe’s north-south contrast of available fresh water resources. Water scarcity will increase in Mediterranean.

A future on fire

Large and uncontrolled wildfires seem to have become the ‘new normal’ as some politicians call it. Climate change is one of the drivers, science has shown, but it’s not the only one.

Ambitious climate policies are needed to …

If we do not succeed in mitigating global warming, sea level may rise up to 2 m in 2100. Ambitious climate policies are needed to avoid the most severe impacts from rising sea levels around the globe.

Europe’s wine production will move north …

Wine grape production in Scotland under high-end climate change remains implausible on a commercial scale at the end of this century. It simply rains too much.

Cultivated peat soils lead to land …

Peat soils are responsible for a significant portion of the anthropogenic CO2 and N2O emissions. Besides, drained organic soils subside due to compaction, shrinkage, erosion and oxidation.

Technology may counterbalance negative impacts of …

Climate change will negatively affect cereal yields in Western Europe, a study for France has shown. Still, yields are projected to increase, thank to technological improvements in agriculture.

When sea level rise accelerates, inland …

Recently, scientists showed that sea level might rise much faster than projected by the IPCC in its latest assessment report. What if they are correct, and large-scale inland migration takes place?

What if the past is the …

Sea level rise slow down 7500 years ago started delta formation globally. What if the past is a key to the future? Will accelerating sea level rise this century be a tipping point of delta collapse?

European heat waves like in the …

If Europe’s climate hadn’t changed since the 1950s, the number of hot days with maximum temperature over 35 °C would have been 25-50% less.

Warmer water due to climate change …

Lake warming due to climate change makes algae-poor lakes get poorer and algae-rich lakes get richer. Tailor-made management is needed to prevent negative consequences for ecology and society.

Ground settlement due to melting permafrost …

Under 2°C global warming the permafrost extent of the Northern Hemisphere will decrease by about 25%. Ground will settle owing to permafrost thaw, 4-15 cm on average, but up to several metres locally.

In 2013 Dutch scientists already saw …

More hurricanes to hit Western Europe. Ireland and the UK are hit by Ophelia, the worst cyclone to hit this part of Europe in 50 years. A scenario already projected by Dutch scientists in 2013.

Deadliest wildfires in California ever: lessons …

“Large wildfires, out of control according to the media, rage across California. Again!” No, this is not the start of a recent article; it’s the start of an article we’ve published last year.

The smaller the Mediterranean islands, the …

Plant species on Mediterranean islands can migrate into more favourable ecological niches when climate changes. Many islands may be too small, however, and certain species may not survive.

Mackerel migrating to the north: the …

After 2007 mackerel became more abundant in northern Atlantic waters. This triggered a conflict over fishing quotas between the European Union (EU), Norway, Iceland, and the Faroe Islands.

How to protect office-workers from future …

In an urban office building without active cooling, the number of lost working hours may quadruple between now and 2100. Effective adaptation measures may reduce this up to 90%.

Changing climate shifts timing of European …

The seasonal timing of river floods across Europe has been changing since 1960. Floods now occur earlier in northeastern and western Europe, and later around the North Sea and Mediterranean coast.

Heat waves and their effect on …

On average 28,000 people die every year in 27 European countries due to heat waves. 0.61% of all mortality in the examined 27 countries is excess mortality caused by heat waves.

Just a few cm of sea-level …

Only 5-10 cm of sea-level rise may more than double the frequency of coastal flooding in the Tropics as early as 2030. Some of the largest cities in the world may face a dire future.

Plants start to flower much earlier …

Plants respond to global warming by advancing their onset of flowering in spring. This advancement is faster in the north of Europe and in the mountains than in the south.

Global warming will increase cost of …

Heat-related illness and the economic cost of avoiding it is a serious issue that should be kept in mind when discussing the benefits and economic cost of climate change mitigation.

Drought risk increases substantially in large …

Even under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets of the Paris agreement, drought risk increases significantly in the Mediterranean, central Europe, the Amazon, and southern Africa.

The warmer Europe gets, the more …

In a warmer world, hydrological impacts of climate change are more intense. Heavy rainfall and highest river flows further increase, lowest flows decrease. In addition, these changes affect wider area

Latest estimate of current rate of …

The rate of global mean sea level rise has increased over the last two decades, mainly due to increased land ice loss from Greenland. Over the period 2004-2015 sea level rose about 3.5 mm per year.

Europe’s infrastructure more often damaged by …

Heavy precipitation events are likely to become more frequent and intense, and will affect wider areas. Damage to Europe’s infrastructure will occur more often.

50 times more weather-related deaths in …

The number of deaths as a result of weather-related disasters is expected to increase by roughly 50 times between now and 2100, if we do not take appropriate measures. Heat waves are the most lethal.

Climate change and marine fisheries: European …

Countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change on marine fisheries are primarily small island states in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean, and countries along the Western and Eastern coasts

What drives future changes in the …

Climate change stimulates global forest carbon due to the fertilization effect of CO2. Not necessarily due to global warming itself: that has negative effects, such as more wildfires and droughts.

No slowdown, no acceleration. Global warming …

There is no statistical evidence for a ‘slowdown period’ with a significantly reduced rate of warming in the period 1998-2014 or an acceleration of global warming in recent years.

Extreme sea levels on the rise …

Future extreme sea levels along Europe’s coasts are mainly driven by relative sea level rise. Averaged over Europe, changes in tides, storm surges and wave set up contribute less than 20%.

Cross-border impacts of climate change: a …

Presented by Richard Taylor of the Stockholm Environment Institute at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference in Glasgow in June 2017.

Abandoned farmlands lead to more forest …

June 18 2017. Large forest fires strike Portugal, northeast of Lisbon. Many people have been killed. This article has been published before on the ClimateChangePost.

High-end sea level rise estimates when …

A new high-end projection for global sea level rise, based on a recent study on the impact of Antarctic ice mass loss, shows sea level rise in 2100 may be much higher than the recent IPCC estimate.

Cities are vulnerable hotspots of climate …

The impact of climate change will be felt especially in the cities during hot summers, due to the urban heat island effect. Several measures can be taken though to ‘beat the heat’.

Exposure of global metal mining industry …

Copper, lead, zinc, and nickel are vital metals for modern infrastructure. The sites where they are mined are exposed to the consequences of climate change. Most exposed are copper resources.

Climate change, water and security in …

Even when droughts lead to conflict, they are not the major driver. Their impact depends on the geopolitical setting and adaptive capacity of societies, as Syria’s civil war outbreak illustrates.

Business supply chain networks are vulnerable …

In our globalized world an extreme event in one part of the world can have a major impact on business continuity on the other side of the planet.

Is our cultural heritage threatened by …

More research is needed on sustainable adaptation planning to preserve cultural heritage under climate change, according to the first global literature review of cultural heritage and climate change.

Species on the move: Impacts on …

Climate change leads to a redistribution of species on land and in the oceans. This affects our well-being because our capacity to respond to species shifting across borders is limited.

Seasonality high and low flows of …

Climate change doesn’t seem to shift the timing of high- and low-flow periods of large rivers between now and the end of the century. Current stream flow seasonality, however, seems to be amplified.

Strong increase global river flood risk …

Even under the most optimistic scenario of global warming, global river flood risk more than doubles, stressing the need for timely and effective adaptation to control river flood risk.

Vulnerabilities of Europe’s economy to global …

Vienna, 26th April 2017 – Press Release. New report on the impacts of increasing water scarcity and drought globally on the European Union’s (EU) economy.

Extreme weather impacts on critical infrastructure

A conference on the impact of extreme weather on critical infrastructure was organized at Deltares (the Netherlands) on March 23 2017. Final results were presented of the European INTACT project.

Changing wildfire regimes in Mediterranean Europe: …

Higher temperatures and more droughts not necessarily increase the number and intensity of wildfires. The combination of climate and human effects makes predictions of future fires highly challenging.

Vulnerability European cities to extreme events …

Already in the next decades highly populated urban areas in Central Europe will experience significantly more hot days, tropical nights, and extreme precipitation events.

How high will the seas rise?

Previous sea level rise projections may have underestimated the contribution of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Recent studies lead to upward adjustment of estimated sea level rise in 2100.

Stronger weather fronts over Europe induce …

Extreme weather events are frequently associated with the passage of large-scale fronts. The number of extremely strong fronts is increasing, and so are precipitation extremes.

Climate impacts on European agriculture are …

Climate impacts in Europe are not necessarily all negative. They could be beneficial for many crops and areas of production.

Green versus engineering: climate-proofing urban storm …

More vegetation may be effective as an integral component of storm water adaptation measures to mitigate climate change-induced flooding. The extent varies from one urban area to another, however.

A dollar of flood damage hits …

Poor and vulnerable people are insufficiently protected against floods. Investments in flood risk management are based on inadequate cost-benefit analyses with a too narrow focus on financial losses.

Climate change impacts on biodiversity, an …

In November 2016 Science published an overview of climate change impacts on biodiversity: "The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people". This article presents a summary.

Migratory birds under threat

Organisms do not respond to climate change at the same pace. This has led to a mismatch between European migratory bird species and their insect food peak, and a decline in their population sizes.

Trucks, could they cease to be …

Pollutant emissions spew from all corners of the planet and transport within the commercial and industrial sector especially bears no small degree of guilt.

Archaeological sites under climate change: what …

Climate change will unavoidably affect the archaeological heritage, through temperature increases, changes in humidity cycles, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events.

We have made Europe’s warmest year …

So far, 2014 is Europe’s hottest year on record. Research shows that anthropogenic climate change has made Europe’s warm year of 2014 at least 500 times more likely.

Storm surge levels increase along Northern …

Future trends in storm surge level changes along the European coastline show an increase for Northern Europe and small or no changes for Southern Europe.

Hottest summers of the past will …

Very hot summers will become the ‘new normal’ much faster than most people expect. A recent study describes a grim picture for the world’s population regarding high summer temperatures.

Free download: New book on Disaster …

Novel ways to enhance society’s resilience to natural disasters such as floods, heat waves or wildfires, in a newly published book of the EU-funded research project ENHANCE.

70% of Europe’s flood casualties are …

Trends of increasing numbers of flash floods in, for instance, Spain agree with the IPCC hypothesis about the increase in both torrential events and people’s vulnerability and exposure to floods.

Flood peaks of Europe’s rivers will …

Whether a river’s catchment in winter is dominated by rainfall or snow determines the impact of climate change on its peak flows. The impact depends on how the ratio between rainfall and snow changes.

Arctic sea ice decline reduces sailing …

One of the benefits of climate change is the use of Arctic sea for trans-Arctic shipping routes. Less ice in summer creates a shortcut between Pacific and Atlantic ports.

Farmers in Eastern Europe will suffer …

There is no such thing as a European response to climate change. Regions with the same increase in temperature and precipitation will have different impacts of climate change.

Little impact climate change on water-borne …

Green water under a blue sky. Water in the canals of Delft (the Netherlands) turned green this summer, due to warm water and high nutrients input.

Adaptation for the sake of peace …

Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in combination make societies more resilient to climate-fragility risks. Yet, a link between them has been more or less absent over the last years

Climate change and refugee flows

Adverse environmental impacts associated with climate change can trigger displacement of an increased number of people. If people do migrate, this will mostly be internally within individual countries

Relationship climate change and violence is …

Climate change may act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. But there is no evidence of a strong relationship between warming and armed conflict.

Europe’s security risks under climate change

Europe is surrounded by some of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Migratory pressure at the European Union's borders and political instability and conflicts could increase in the future.

Malaria will not spread across Europe …

The changing climate may turn large parts of Europe into a suitable home for malarial mosquitoes. But a large-scale malaria epidemic is highly unlikely. The health infrastructure is too good for that.

More tick-borne diseases, but not necessarily …

Disease-transmitting ticks are expanding over Europe, consistent with observed warming trends. There is no evidence, however, of any associated changes in the distribution of tick-borne diseases.

Urban adaptation to climate change in …

Based on a presentation by Birgit Georgi (European Environment Agency) at the 4th Nordic Conference on Climate Change Adaptation in Bergen, Norway, August 2016.

What do climate service users need …

Presented by Erik Kolstad (Uni Research Climate & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research) at the 4th Nordic Conference on Climate Change Adaptation in Bergen, Norway, August 2016.

Lucky Norway. Hydropower and the benefits …

Based on a presentation by Per Sanderud and a discussion with Hege Hisdal and Christina Beisland of NVE at the 4th Nordic Conference on Climate Change Adaptation in Bergen, Norway, August 2016.

Longread - Dying from cold in …

More heat-related deaths in summer may not balance less cold-related deaths in winter. In fact, higher winter temperature volatility and an ageing population may increase the number of winter deaths.

Wildfire risk is increasing, how to …

Current wildfire risk calls for more than well-equipped fire fighting units. Investments are needed in plane and satellite monitoring of forests, early warning, and more resilience to fires.

Hydropower and cooling water under climate …

The world relies on the available surface water resources for electricity generation. How will global warming affect the potential for hydropower and cooling water?

Wildfires increase in Europe from north …

Wildfire risk in northern Europe is much less than in the south. In northern Europe, wildfires are rare: the percentage of forestland burnt annually is less than 0.05%, compared with 0.55% for Spain.

What is driving future water scarcity: …

The frequency of droughts will increase in the next several decades. In addition, population will grow. Both impacts have been assessed. The conclusion: climate change plays the primary role.

Wildfires and climate change, a connection …

The impacts of climate change on natural hazards cast their shadows in the increasing numbers of wildfires. The causal connection is hard to deny.

Longread - Heat waves: the number …

The increase in intensity of heat waves in combination with high tropospheric ozone concentrations represents the greatest direct risk that climate change poses to people’s health in Europe.

Ozone and fine particulate matter: major …

50% of the deaths as a result of the European summer heat wave of 2003 may be associated with ozone exposure rather than the heat itself, research has shown.

Northern Europe’s agriculture will benefit from …

The prolongation and intensification of the thermal growing season offers several benefits for northern European forestry and agriculture. In southern Europe, negative impacts dominate.

How to adapt to higher river …

Increasing the level of flood protection may be cost-effective, but is not sustainable in the long term. A higher level of flood protection results in the loss of flood memory.

How hazards will change in Europe …

Looking at the combination of extreme events, entire Europe could face a progressive increase in overall climate exposure, with a prominent spatial gradient towards southwestern regions

Climate-related disaster risk increases, but not …

Increasing exposure to flooding is the main cause of the steeply rising trend in global river flood losses over the past decades.

Forest management can mitigate climate change …

Forest management can mitigate the effects of climate change. Climate and forest management interact and affect streamflow differentially.

First human influence on heat extremes …

The effect of climate change on extreme events extends back several decades. An example is the record- breaking hot summer of 1997/1998 in Australia.

Can we relate climate change to …

A new field of science called “extreme event attribution” allows for answering the question: did climate change play a role in this specific extreme event?

The Battle of Engineers against Climate …

The battle against climate change will be a race against the clock. Engineers will have to fight on two fronts: towards a sustainable energy system and against projected impacts.

Less or more severe storms on …

It is yet unclear how climate change may affect the number of severe storms on the Atlantic Ocean and in the European coastal zone.

Climate change impact on Europe’s air …

Air pollution is a serious health concern in many parts of the world. Projections of air quality changes over Europe under climate change are highly uncertain, however.

Water scarcity increases worldwide due to …

Under a moderate scenario of climate change, by 2050 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity solely due to climate change.

Europe’s extreme heat wave of 2010: …

The heat wave in 2010 was likely the hottest summer in the last 500 years in eastern Europe. It was both due to natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

Hotter summers versus warmer winters: health …

An interesting ‘trade-off’ is the effect of global warming on the number of heat-related and cold-related deaths. What will be the net effect of hotter summers and warmer winters?

More water stored on land slowed …

Over the last years, climate-driven changes such as large-scale floods have increased the volume of water on land. This increase slowed down sea level rise.

What do we really know about …

Climate change will have an impact on river flood risk, but to what extent? One thing is clear: the impact is highly uncertain.

Future floods and hydrological droughts in …

The impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts have been assessed for Europe for 1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events.

Global warming will reduce global yields …

Maize and soybean are among the most important food crops worldwide. Global warming reduces growing season length and yields for both crops.

Spring advancement in Europe due to …

The earlier green-up of vegetation in Europe amplifies spring warming, especially the frequency and intensity of spring heat waves, according to a recent study.

How to turn flash floods into …

At many places climate change both increases droughts and heavy rainfall. Too little and too much water are part of the same problem. They may be part of the same solution too

The world’s poorest cities can’t cope …

Urban centers worldwide are racing to bolster themselves and their residents against rising sea levels

Salt marshes will survive sea level …

Sea level rise over the next decades is not an immediate, catastrophic threat to many marshes: marshes will survive in place under relatively fast rates of sea level rise

Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change

The global area of dryland is increasing rapidly. This was shown from data over the period 1948–2005, and seems to proceed towards the end of this century.

Future changes of wind energy potential …

Wind energy potential more likely than not will increase over Northern and Central Europe. For Southern Europe, a likely decrease of mean annual wind energy potential is projected.

Rapid and highly variable warming of …

Lake summer surface water temperatures are warming significantly, with a mean trend of 0.34°C per decade, across 235 globally distributed lakes.

Forest fires and adaptation options in …

Estimates of potential increase in annual burned areas in Europe under a high-end scenario of climate change show an increase of about 200% by 2090

Desertification in Mediterranean will extend northwards …

The larger Mediterranean Basin will have warmer and dryer climate conditions at the end of this century. Desertification in the Mediterranean region

Forest management cannot keep pace with …

The results of a European-wide study show that forest management cannot keep pace with the projected change in species suitability under climate change.

River flood risk in Europe under …

Estimates based on a combination of climate and flooding models indicate that river floods affect some 216,000 people every year in Europe. The estimated annual damage for Europe is 5.3 B€.

Tourism demand changes in Europe due …

Climatic conditions might become more favorable for tourism in the north of Europe and less so in the south. Climate model projections for 2100

Flood risk insurance in the European …

Flood insurance differs widely in scope and form across Europe. There seems to be little appetite for harmonization of flood insurance arrangements across the EU

Widespread forest mortality under climate warming

Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history.

Explaining extreme events of 2014 from …

Recently, the American Meteorological Society published a large number of studies on extreme events in 2014, focused on the question whether these can be (partly) attributed to climate change.

Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge …

Bumblebee species seem to fail to move to the north of Europe and North America in response to global warming whereas they lose habitats at the southern range

How cities can beat the heat

What measures may be effective in reducing the urban heat island effect and cool down cities during heat waves? A comparison of recent insights from scientific studies

Effects of climate change and seed …

Allergenic diseases caused by pollen may appear earlier in the year and may also increase. An example of the latter is the invasion of common ragweed (a native in North America) into Europe since the

Global mountain topography and the fate …

Climate change is considered a large threat to especially montane species. These species often inhabit narrow elevational ranges

Europe’s flood regions

Five large-scale homogeneous regions in Europe have been identified in terms of flood regimes, based on the longest available flow series from across Europe

Range minimum - maximum temperatures changes …

Many impact studies assume that climate change results in changing daily minimum and maximum temperatures by the same amount and in the same direction. However, on local scales

Changes of future western European heat …

Extreme heat waves have an impact on western European electricity supply due to the increased electricity demand for cooling and the power limitation of thermoelectric plants

Severe Autumn storms in future Western …

In a warmer future climate, Western Europe will see larger impacts from severe Autumn storms. Not only their frequency will increase, but also their intensity and the area they affect.

Sea level rise projections for northern …

How much sea level rise is to be expected at the upper limit of current IPCC scenarios? This question has been dealt with for northern Europe

Climate change and the permafrost carbon …

In high-latitude regions of the Earth, temperatures have risen 0.6 °C per decade, twice as fast as the global average. The resulting thaw of frozen ground

Global mean sea-level rise: latest results

According to satellite altimetry-based data anthropogenic global warming has resulted in global mean sea-level rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/year over the period 1994-2011

Global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature …

Specific individual extreme weather events cannot be attributed to climate change. It has been shown, however, that the overall probability of climate change having an effect on extreme events can be

Changing global patterns of urban exposure …

With respect to high-frequency flood zones, including exposure to both coastal and river floods, in 2000 about 30% of the global urban land was located in these zones; by 2030, this will reach 40%.

Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of …

There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature

Mitigating urban heat island effects in …

For Canadian cities, four major categories of mitigation strategies and measures have been identified: Greening measures: all measures that can increase

Human and climate impacts on the …

Human influence can account for almost 100% of the changes in future hydrological drought in areas such as Asia, Middle East and North-Africa (Mediterranean).

Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

Climate change threatens one in six species (16%) globally if we follow our current, business-as-usual trajectory

Climate potential for beach-based tourism in …

The overall enhancement on summery tourist comfort in north-western European countries and the overall degradation in the Mediterranean could lead to

Climate change and foodborne transmission of …

The impact of climate change on foodborne parasites is complicated and provides no easy answers.

Changing geography of high-quality wine production …

European wine farms show considerable potential to improve their economic performance, and thereby ease their situation in a global change scenario.

Climate change impacts on European wind …

future changes in wind power potential are weak or non-significant over a large part of Europe: changes in wind power potential will remain within ±15% and ±20% by mid and late century respectively.

Global warming and 21st century drying

Projected climate changes suggest increased drying, driven primarily by increases in evapotranspiration. This will likely have significant ramifications for globally important regions

New high-resolution climate change projections for …

The latest high-resolution future climate simulations for Europe (from the EURO-CORDEX program) refer to a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. The first results address changes

Climate change impacts on groundwater and …

Future climate change will affect recharge rates and, in turn, the depth of groundwater levels and the amount of available groundwater.

Adaptation potential of European agriculture in …

The adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change has been assessed for a number of crops. It was shown that adaptation potential is high for maize

Threat to future global food security …

Global demand for food is expected to increase by at least 50% from 2010 to 2050 mainly as a result of population growth and a shift towards a more `westernized' diet

More frequent adverse weather conditions for …

With 25% of the global wheat area and 29% of global wheat production, Europe is the largest producer of wheat. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events

Loss of cultural world heritage to …

The impact of global warming on the cultural world heritage through sea level rise has been estimated for the next 2000 years.

Adapting rail and road networks to …

In the past decade, winter consequences and flood events accounted for 96% of the total rail and road networks costs in the Alps, 92% in mid-Europe and 91% across EUR29.

Costs estimates of weather extremes on …

Railways are the losers of climate change thanks to their expensive—and therefore vulnerable—infrastructure and their complex vehicle routing system and high safety standards.

Climate outsider finds missing global warming

A recent analysis indicates that the planet has warmed most where scientists are watching least. The recent slowdown in warming seems to be half as big as previously thought.

Crop yield under climate change and …

Global yield impacts of climate change and adaptation have been evaluated by analysing a data set of more than 1,700 published simulations for three crops: wheat, rice and maize.

Extreme weather and climate change impacts …

On the Rhine–Main–Danube corridor no decrease in the performance of inland waterway transport due to extreme weather events is expected till 2050.

Twenty-first century glacier mass changes

Current global glacier volume is projected to reduce by 29 - 41% over the period 2006–2100. Scandinavia may lose more than 75% of its current volume

Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security

Water scarcity and climate change are overall not found to have an important association with armed conflict, especially if compared to poverty and dysfunctional institutions.

Integrating climate change into peacebuilding

Opportunities for integrating climate change into peacebuilding refer to socio-economic recovery, politics and governance, security and rule of law, and human rights.

Climate change impacts on marine fisheries

Projected impacts indicate increased fish productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes

Streamflow and thermal habitats of freshwater …

Climate change will affect future flow and thermal regimes of rivers. This will directly affect freshwater habitats and ecosystem health.

Agricultural risk management policies under climate …

Risk management instruments in agriculture, such as crop insurance and disaster assistance programme, and especially how they are designed, will affect incentives to adapt.

Costs and benefits of adaptation to …

Assuming protection against a 100-year flood event, EU annual river flood damage is estimated to increase from €5.5 billion now to €98 billion in 2100.

Future reduction of snowfall in western …

Precipitation on future days, where average daily temperature is below freezing, decreases in large parts of Europe in a future warmer climate.

Future yield estimates under climate change

The yield decreasing effect of climate change in Europe is projected to be compensated and partially superseded by higher atmospheric CO2 concentration and technology development.

Irrigation water demand under climate change

For Europe, by the end of the century, irrigation water demand is projected to decrease for Eastern Europe under scenarios for moderate climate change.

Trends in European precipitation extremes over …

In Europe, 1-day and 5-day precipitation events that occurred on average once in 5, 10 and 20 years in the 1950s and 1960s generally became more common during the period 1951–2010.

Poleward shifts crop pests and pathogens

The average poleward shift in recorded incidences of crop pests and pathogens since 1960 is 2.2 ± 0.8 km/year for the Northern Hemisphere and 1.7 ± 1.7 km/year for the Southern Hemisphere.

Managing forests and fire in changing …

Fire policy that focuses on suppression only delays the inevitable, promising more dangerous and destructive future forest fires.

Vulnerability hotspots for wheat and maize

There are perhaps five wheat and three maize growing regions likely to be both exposed to worse droughts and a reduced capacity to adapt.

Urban heat island effect European cities

The urban heat island effect has been quantified for all cities in 38 European countries. It was shown that this effect varies over the seasons.

Global air pollution-related premature mortality

21st century climate change increases global all-cause premature mortalities associated with PM2.5 by approximately 100,000 deaths and respiratory disease mortality

Climate change impacts on thermal power …

The effects and the relevance of gradual climate change on the probability of power outages and blackouts are difficult to quantify. It has been stated that by 2040 capacity reductions of 13–19 %

Vulnerability of oil and gas sector

Climate change and extreme weather events represent a real physical threat to the oil and gas sector, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and areas exposed to extreme weather events.

Global flood risk under climate change

Flood frequency increases in West and Northwest Europe, including the UK, Ireland, the Low Countries and most of France. In contrast, flood frequency decreases in many regions of

Multi-hazard impact assessment for Europe

At the regional level, the impact of climate change was assessed for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change ...

Economic value loss of European forest …

The expected value of European forest land is expected to decrease owing to the decline of economically valuable species in the absence of effective countermeasures ...

Is climate change a driver of …

From the available scientific literature the impact of climate change on security is yet unclear ...

Adaptation to climate change impacts on …

Problems with efficient dewatering following heavy rainfall events are not uncommon already today, e.g. because of urbanization beyond the system capacity ...

Loss potentials for European windstorms under …

Windstorm losses are expected to reach unseen magnitudes, which for some countries (e.g. Germany) may exceed 200% of the strongest event in present day climate simulations ...

Ground water and climate change

Substantial reductions in potential groundwater recharge are projected for the 21st century in southern Europe and increases in northern Europe ...

Impacts and adaptation to climate change …

The economic impacts of climate change have been estimated for a global mean temperature rise of +2°C and +4°C for 27 European countries ...

The future of dry and wet …

Changes in dry and wet spell characteristics in Europe have been projected for 2021–2050 compared with 1961–1990 ...

Mega heat waves in Europe

During the 2001–2010 decade, 500-year-long records of highest air temperature were likely broken over 65% of Europe, including ...

Economic impacts of sea level rise …

The direct and indirect costs of sea level rise for Europe have been modelled for a range of sea level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s. The results show ...

Vulnerability of European electricity supply to …

Climate change will impact thermoelectric power production in Europe through a combination of increased water temperatures and ...

River flood risk in Europe

From an assessment of the implications of climate change for future flood damage and people exposed by floods in Europe it was concluded ...

Tourism: winners and loosers

Climate change may have a net positive effect on the overall European potential for tourism ...

Europe

Previously in ClimateChangePost