Security and crisis management

How climate change is affecting global migration patterns

Migration in response to climate change is not an option for an increasing number of poor people. They lack the financial means to move and are the ‘trapped population’.

Climate-driven shocks to agriculture spur emigration from poor countries

In poor countries, over the period 1960 to 2010, climate-driven reduction in agricultural productivity of 1% from its decennial trend has induced an increase in the emigration rate of about 4.5%.

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Does climate change already affect armed conflicts?

According to experienced climate and conflict experts, the role of climate in conflicts to date is small compared to other drivers of conflict. Climate change will amplify conflict risk, however.

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New perspectives on the global distribution of climate risk. The Netherlands stands out!

Due to transnational impacts, countries are far more vulnerable than direct impacts suggest. Exposure to climate change impacts in a globalised world turns out bad for The Netherlands.

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Ranking the world on climate security: European countries at the top

A country’s national security may be negatively affected by climate change. This impact was expressed quantitatively. It turns out that climate security is highest in Europe, with Finland as number 1.

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Cross-border impacts of climate change: a blind spot for the European Union

Presented by Richard Taylor of the Stockholm Environment Institute at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference in Glasgow in June 2017.

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Climate change, water and security in the Middle East

Even when droughts lead to conflict, they are not the major driver. Their impact depends on the geopolitical setting and adaptive capacity of societies, as Syria’s civil war outbreak illustrates.

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Vulnerabilities of Europe’s economy to global water scarcity and drought

Vienna, 26th April 2017 – Press Release. New report on the impacts of increasing water scarcity and drought globally on the European Union’s (EU) economy.

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Adaptation for the sake of peace and security

Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in combination make societies more resilient to climate-fragility risks. Yet, a link between them has been more or less absent over the last years

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Climate change and refugee flows

Adverse environmental impacts associated with climate change can trigger displacement of an increased number of people. If people do migrate, this will mostly be internally within individual countries

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Hazards rarely create disasters, the context does

Hazards themselves rarely create disasters; it is the context in which hazards occur that contributes to disastrous outcomes. This context is constantly changing as a result of many factors.

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Relationship climate change and violence is not that simple!

Climate change may act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. But there is no evidence of a strong relationship between warming and armed conflict.

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Europe’s security risks under climate change

Europe is surrounded by some of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Migratory pressure at the European Union's borders and political instability and conflicts could increase in the future.

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What are the world’s hotspots of climate change-enhanced conflict risk?

Presented by Karen Meijer (Deltares, The Netherlands) at the Adaptation Futures Conference in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, May 2016

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Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security

Water scarcity and climate change are overall not found to have an important association with armed conflict, especially if compared to poverty and dysfunctional institutions.

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Integrating climate change into peacebuilding

Opportunities for integrating climate change into peacebuilding refer to socio-economic recovery, politics and governance, security and rule of law, and human rights.

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Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?

From the available scientific literature the impact of climate change on security is yet unclear ...

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