Tourism in numbers - Europe
Europe is the most important tourist region in the world. According to UNWTO, in 2006 nearly 55% of all international tourist arrivals (461 million) were on the “old continent”.Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region are the favourite holiday destinations in Europe. According to UNWTO, in 2006 about 165 million tourists visited these regions (5).
At present, the predominant summer tourist flows in Europe are from north to south, to the coastal zone. However, coastal and mountain tourism are the segments that are most vulnerable to climate change, and the Mediterranean region is the world's most popular holiday region: it attracts some 120 million visitors from northern Europe each year, the largest international flow of tourists on the globe, and their spending is in excess of EUR 100 billion (3).
Tourism in numbers - Turkey
Overall, Turkey is the fourth most visited holiday country in the Mediterranean region. Tourism’s contribution to GDP is 11%. Although it has numerous cultural and historic attractions, beach holidays on Turkey's Mediterranean (the Aegean and the Turkish Riviera) and Black Sea coasts are predominant (5).
In Turkey, tourism has been an important and growing sector since the 1980s, with the coast being the major focus of activity. The number of tourist arrivals has increased from 5.4 to 19.6 million/year between 1990 and 2004: about 21 million tourists visited in 2005, contributing US$15 billion in revenue (14% of total foreign exchange earnings) and making Turkey the 16th most important tourist destination worldwide. The Association for Turkish Tourism Investors have targets of 38 million visitors/year and US$36.4 billion in revenue by the year 2013 (1).
Vulnerabilities – In general
There are four broad categories of climate change impacts that will affect tourism destinations, their competitiveness and sustainability (4):
- Direct climatic impacts
- Indirect environmental change impacts. Changes in water availability, biodiversity loss, reduced landscape aesthetic, altered agricultural production (e.g., wine tourism), increased natural hazards, coastal erosion and inundation, damage to infrastructure and the increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases will all impact tourism to varying degrees.
- Impacts of mitigation policies on tourist mobility. Policies that seek to reduce GHG emissions will lead to an increase in transport costs and may foster environmental attitudes that lead tourists to change their travel patterns.
- Indirect societal change impacts. Climate change is thought to pose a risk to future economic growth and to the political stability of some nations. Climate change is considered a national and international security risk that will steadily intensify, particularly under greater warming scenarios. Tourists, particularly international tourists, are averse to political instability and social unrest.
Vulnerabilities - Turkey
As a result of increasing temperatures, Turkey could be negatively affected by climate change (5).
In the Mediterranean states, increasing average temperatures, together with the increasing probability of heatwaves, could result in temperatures exceeding comfortable levels more frequently in the future. It is estimated that, by 2030, the region will have a noticeable increase in the number of days with temperatures above 40°C. Other problems are shortages of water, that restrict the operation of tourist facilities (swimming pools, golf courses), and increasing risk of forest fires in many areas. The return of malaria to the southern Mediterranean region also cannot be ruled out (5).
Adaptation strategies – In general
Climate change is slowly entering into decision-making of a range of tourism stakeholders (e.g., investors, insurance companies, tourism enterprises, governments, and tourists); studies that have examined the climate change risk appraisal of local tourism officials and operators have consistently found relatively low levels of concern and little evidence of long-term strategic planning in anticipation of future changes in climate (4).
There is also some evidence that local tourism operators may be overestimating their adaptive capacity (e.g., capacity to make snow under the warmest scenarios). The incorporation of adaptation to climate change into the collective minds of private and public sector tourism decision-makers (‘mainstreaming’) remains several steps away (4).
The capacity of the tourism sector to adapt to climate change is thought to be relatively high due to its dynamic nature and therefore there will be important opportunities for tourism to reduce the vulnerability of communities to climate change (4).
Adaptation strategies - Turkey
In the Mediterranean region, the likely reduction of tourism during the hotter summer months may be compensated for by promoting changes in the temporal pattern of seaside tourism, for example by encouraging visitors during the cooler months (2). Climate change may even be beneficial for the Mediterranean tourist industry if it levels-out demand, reducing the summer peak, while increasing occupancy in the shoulder seasons. In the absence of such adjustments, the Mediterranean tourist industry will be among the main losers (3).
The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Turkey.
- DPT (2006), in: Karaca and Nicholls (2008)
- Amelung and Viner (2006)
- EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
- UNWTO, UNEP and WHO (2008)
- Deutsche Bank Research (2008)