Since the beginning of the millennium, more introductions of vector diseases have been registered, the latest one being the African virus (Chikungunya) transmitted by the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). This invasive species was registered in Serbia in 2009 (5). Most of Serbia will become significantly more suitable for the establishment of the Asian tiger mosquito in the second half of this century (20).
There might be a link between West Nile virus (WNV) infection and neurological disorders in Vojvodina, first registered in 2007. In addition to West Nile fever, the population of Vojvodina and south Serbia might be exposed to the risks of malaria, Rift Valley fever, Chikungunya fever, dengue fever, leishmaniasis and other vector–borne diseases (5).
The warmer and, in some parts of the country, more humid climate might also initiate epidemics of alimentary (intestine) infections transmitted through food and water, such as diarrhoea and dysentery. The escalation of these diseases may be additionally accelerated by changed practices of storing food and drinking water (5).
Air quality is expected to become poorer in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Whereas human-induced emissions in most of Europe are decreasing, they are increasing in Turkey and the Middle East, which affect ozone and particulate air pollution, leading to excess morbidity and mortality. In the northern parts of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East increasing dryness will likely be associated with fire activity and consequent pollution emissions. Furthermore, this region has many large cities, including several megacities in which air quality is seriously degraded (18,19).
Extended heat waves will have serious health implications (18).
There is agreement that the risk of a potential spread of malaria in Europe is very low under current socio-economic conditions, but some Eastern European countries might be at risk. In Eastern European countries, where per-capita health expenditure is relatively low, health services are less efficient in detecting and treating malaria cases, and the environmental measures to control mosquito distribution are poorly implemented. This could eventually contribute to the uncontrolled spread of the disease in these countries (1).
Climate change to date is not necessarily the cause of the marked increased incidence of a variety of tick-borne diseases in many parts of Europe over the past two decades, however. This increase may also be due to the impact of biotic factors, such as increases in deer abundance and changing habitat structure, and of socio-political changes following the end of communist rule (2).
Lyme borreliosis is the most important vector-borne disease in temperate zones of the northern hemisphere in terms of number of cases. In Europe, at least 85,000 cases are reported every year and prevalence is greater eastwards (6,7). The disease is prevalent in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Montenegro. Countries with annual incidences of over 20 per 100,000 include Lithuania, Estonia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic (6).
Leishmaniasis is a protozoan parasitic infection caused by Leishmania infantum that is transmitted to human beings through the bite of an infected female sandfly. Sandfly distribution in Europe is south of latitude 45⁰N and less than 800 m above sea level, although it has recently expanded as high as 49⁰N. Currently, sandfly vectors have a substantially wider range than that of L infantum, and imported cases of infected dogs are common in central and northern Europe. Once conditions make transmission suitable in northern latitudes, these imported cases could act as plentiful source of infections, permitting the development of new endemic foci. Conversely, if climatic conditions become too hot and dry for vector survival, the disease may disappear in southern latitudes. Thus, complex climatic and environmental changes (such as land use) will continue to shift the dispersal of leishmaniasis in Europe (3).
Adaptation strategies - Serbia
Recommended adaptation strategies for Serbia are (5):
- Risk reduction. Risks may be reduced by a.o.ensuring the availability of medications, vaccines equipment and diagnostic tests, and by improving the heat wave early warning system;
- Policy and institutional framework. Climate change should be included in sector strategy and planning, and in spatial and urban planningto reduce risks of heat islands, air pollution andheat waves. A protection plan for especially vulnerable citizens should be adopted;
- Monitoring and research. Systems for climate monitoring and early warning of climate extreme events, and bio–monitoring systems should be improved. The monitoring of vectors, transmitted and infective diseases, and a national network should be established;
- Capacity building and public awareness. Professional capacity, the capacity of health protection institutions, the research capacity, and the capacity of institutions responsible for prevention and control programmes should be strengthened.
Adaptation strategies - General - Heatwaves
The outcomes from the two European heat waves of 2003 and 2006 have been summarized by the IPCC (8) and are summarized below. They include public health approaches to reducing exposure, assessing heat mortality, communication and education, and adapting the urban infrastructure.
1. Public health approaches to reducing exposure
A common public health approach to reducing exposure is the Heat Warning System (HWS) or Heat Action Response System. The four components of the latter include an alert protocol, community response plan, communication plan, and evaluation plan (9). The HWS is represented by the multiple dimensions of the EuroHeat plan, such as a lead agency to coordinate the alert, an alert system, an information outreach plan, long-term infrastructural planning, and preparedness actions for the health care system (10).
The European Network of Meteorological Services has created Meteoalarm as a way to coordinate warnings and to differentiate them across regions (11). There are a range of approaches used to trigger alerts and a range of response measures implemented once an alert has been triggered. In some cases, departments of emergency management lead the endeavor, while in others public health-related agencies are most responsible (12).
2. Assessing heat mortality
Assessing excess mortality is the most widely used means of assessing the health impact of heat-related extreme events.
3. Communication and education
One particularly difficult aspect of heat preparedness is communicating risk. In many locations populations are unaware of their risk and heat wave warning systems go largely unheeded (13). Some evidence has even shown that top-down educational messages do not result in appropriate resultant actions (14).
More generally, research shows that communication about heat preparedness centered on engaging with communities results in increased awareness compared with top-down messages (15).
4. Adapting the urban infrastructure
Several types of infrastructural measures can be taken to prevent negative outcomes of heat-related extreme events. Models suggest that significant reductions in heat-related illness would result from land use modifications that increase albedo, proportion of vegetative cover, thermal conductivity, and emissivity in urban areas (16). Reducing energy consumption in buildings can improve resilience, since localized systems are less dependent on vulnerable energy infrastructure. In addition, by better insulating residential dwellings, people would suffer less effect from heat hazards. Financial incentives have been tested in some countries as a means to increase energy efficiency by supporting those who are insulating their homes. Urban greening can also reduce temperatures, protecting local populations and reducing energy demands (17).
The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Serbia.
- WHO (2005), in: Behrens et al. (2010)
- Randalph (2004)
- Semenza and Menne (2009)
- Hajat et al. (2003)
- The Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning of the Republic of Serbia (2010)
- Lindgren et al. (2006), in: Tamer et al. (2008)
- EUCALB (2008), in: Tamer et al. (2008)
- IPCC (2012)
- Health Canada (2010), in: IPCC (2012)
- WHO (2007), in: IPCC (2012)
- Bartzokas et al. (2010), in: IPCC (2012)
- McCormick (2010b), in: IPCC (2012)
- Luber and McGeehin (2008), in: IPCC (2012)
- Semenza et al. (2008)), in: IPCC (2012)
- Smoyer-Tomic and Rainham (2001), in: IPCC (2012)
- Yip et al. (2008); Silva et al. (2010), both in: IPCC (2012)
- Akbari et al. (2001), in: IPCC (2012)
- Lelieveld et al. (2012)
- Lelieveld et al. (2013)
- Petrić et al. (2017)