We will fail to achieve the Paris climate agreement, IPCC experts say

May 8th, 2024 | Download as PDF
We will fail to achieve the Paris climate agreement, IPCC experts say

Data graph: Guardian, 8 May 2024

Most IPCC scientists no longer think the Paris climate agreement goals will be achieved. The Paris Agreement stipulates that we must not allow the planet to warm by more than 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels and should strive to keep warming below 1.5°C. At the time, scientists pointed out that the importance of the step from 1.5°C to 2°C should not be understated. Now, almost 80% of the IPCC experts who responded to a survey by the Guardian think global temperature rise will exceed 2°C. Only 6% think the internationally agreed target of not exceeding 1.5°C will be met.

For this survey, the Guardian approached every contactable lead author or review editor of IPCC reports since 2018. Almost half replied.

Recently, experts argued that for the time being the scenarios predicting somewhere between 2°C and 3°C of global warming by 2100 are the most probable. Others concluded that current climate policies lead the world to about 2.7°C global warming. According to the Guardian, their survey ‘shows few IPCC experts expect the world to deliver the huge action required to reduce that.’



  • Guardian, 8 May 2024. World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target.
  • Pielke et al., 2022. Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2°C and 3°C of warming by 2100. Environmental Research Letters 17, 024027.
  • https://climateactiontracker.org