The future of Venice
Will tidal flooding events in Venice increase in frequency and intensity during the 21st century? This has been debated recently. It was concluded from research that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered in the 21st century; the impact of sea level rise would be compensated by a 30% decrease of the frequency of extreme storm surge events by the end of the 21st century and a decrease of extreme tides under sea level rise. Others, however, oppose these conclusions by stating that projected sea level rise has been underestimated; they conclude that the projected reduction in the frequency of storm surges will be likely overwhelmed by sea level rise, resulting in an increase in the number and intensity of flooding in Venice.
Troccoli et al. (2012). Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change. Climatic Change 113.
Jordà et al. (2012). Comment on “Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change” by Troccoli et al. Climatic Change 113.
Photo: Jay Galvin (www.flickr.com)