Russia
Transport, Infrastructure and Building
Vulnerabilities
Transport
Among all the identified types of natural hazards, hydrometeorological hazards such as heavy snowfalls and rains, floods and ice phenomena, as well as dangerous exogenous slope processes including snow avalanches, debris flows, landslides, and rockfalls, have the largest contributions to transport accidents and disruptions in Russia. The most dangerous is the combination of heavy precipitation and strong winds. In the period 1992 to 2018, the majority of emergency situations due to natural hazards occurred from November to March (> 67 %) (18).
Read moreBenefits of climate change
Projections of Arctic marine access
Since the 1980s, the extent of older, thicker multiyear ice has decreased by ca 15% per decade, driven especially by reductions in March (declining from ca 75% to 45 %) and September (ca 60 % to ca 15 %) (13). A short period of ice-free conditions in summer has been projected as early as 2030 (17) and as late as 2100 (14).
Projections have been made of 21st-century Arctic marine access for the early (2011–2030), mid-(2046–2065), and late-21st century (2080–2099); assuming Polar Class 3 (PC3), Polar Class 6 (PC6), and open-water vessels (OW) with high, medium, and no ice-breaking capability, respectively (15). These projections are based on sea ice simulations for three climatic forcing scenarios (4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2; defined in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report); these scenarios are roughly correlative to the IPCC SRES scenarios B1, A1B, and A2, respectively (16). The projections are compared with the baseline period 1980–1999. Results suggest substantial areas of the Arctic will become newly accessible to Polar Class 3, Polar Class 6, and open-water vessels, rising from ca 54%, 36%, and 23%, respectively of the circumpolar International Maritime Organization Guidelines Boundary area in the late 20th century to ca 95%, 78%, and 49%, respectively by the late 21st century. Of the five Arctic Ocean coastal states, Russia experiences the greatest percentage access increases to its exclusive economic zone, followed by Greenland/Denmark, Norway, Canada and the U.S (15).
The impact on three potential shipping routes was assessed: Northwest Passage, Northern Sea Route, and Trans-Polar Route. Along the Northern Sea Route, July-October navigation season length averages ca 120, 113, and 103 days for PC3, PC6, and OW vessels, respectively by late-century, with shorter seasons but substantial increases along the Northwest Passage and Trans-Polar Route (15).
Trans-Arctic navigation is likely to remain a summertime phenomenon. The Arctic marine environment is likely to be fully or partially ice-covered 6–8 months each year for the first half of the century, and no climate model projects an ice-free Arctic in winter by 2100 (12).
Adaptation strategies in Russia
Buildings
Soviet-era panel-style buildings are an important consideration when planning for climate change in the region. Most block flats, which were designed to have a lifespan of about thirty years, already were in disrepair at the time the regimes fell (1). Bulgaria, for instance, recently indicated that 10% of its panel dwellings were in need of urgent repairs (1) while the Slovak Ministry of Construction estimated that it would cost over 10.3 billion Euros and take more than thirty years to complete the structural repairs necessary to ensure the safety of these buildings (2).
Although they are in need of basic renovation, there is growing evidence that panel buildings, both block flats used for housing and public buildings of similar construction, have the potential to be efficiently renovated and to incorporate energy-saving retrofits. The major aspects of retrofitting focus on energy-saving measures. These include thermal insulation, replacement windows, and modernization of central heating systems. In addition to these measures, green roofing is being tested as a further means for improving the quality of living spaces as well as a way to manage fluctuations in precipitation. Studies suggest that rooftop gardens:
- help to control interior temperature, by decreasing the heat entering and exiting a building through the roof, and thus reduce energy demand (3). Widespread introduction of gardens will add to urban greenspace and, in the process, help moderate heat island effects.
- can reduce the level of runoff and moderate the potential of flooding during heavy rainfall (3,4).
- assist in harvesting rainwater. The basic idea is that rainwater is filtered into storage tanks and then used for non-potable activities such as laundry, toilets, and watering plants (5).
Climate change will require changes in building codes and standards where they exist (11).
References
The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Russia.
- US National Intelligence Council (2009)
- Iliev and Yuksel (2004), in: Carmin and Zhang (2009)
- CiJ (2008), in: Carmin and Zhang (2009)
- Bass and Baskaran (2001), in: Carmin and Zhang (2009)
- Hadley and Carter (2006), in: Carmin and Zhang (2009)
- Carmin and Zhang (2009)
- Mirvis (1999), in: IPCC (2012)
- Auld (2008b); Larsen et al. (2008); Stewart et al. (2011), all in: IPCC (2012)
- Coleman (2002); Munich Re (2005); Auld (2008b); Larsen et al. (2008); Kwadijk et al. (2010); Mastrandrea et al. (2010), all in: IPCC (2012)
- Ruth and Coelho (2007); Haasnoot et al. (2009), both in: IPCC (2012)
- Bourrelier et al. (2000); Füssel (2007); Wilby (2007); Auld (2008b); Stevens (2008); Hallegatte (2009), all in: IPCC (2012)
- ACIA (2004a); Stroeve et al. (2012a), both in: Stephenson et al. (2013)
- Maslanik et al. (2011); Comiso (2012); Polyakov et al. (2012), all in: Stephenson et al. (2013)
- Boe et al. (2009), in: Stephenson et al. (2013)
- Stephenson et al. (2013)
- Van Vuuren et al. (2011); Vavrus et al. (2012), both in: Stephenson et al. (2013)
- Wang and Overland (2009), in: Stephenson et al. (2013)
- Petrova (2020)