Poland
Forestry and Peatlands
Vulnerabilities - Poland
Climate change impacts on the growth and natural mortality of Norway spruce Picea abies, European beech Fagus sylvatica, and oak Quercus sp. have been estimated for Central Europe for the IPCC SRES A1B scenario for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, compared with 1961–1990 (based on two global climate models and four regional climate models). Growth simulations indicated that climate change will substantially affect the growth of spruce and beech, but not of oak, in Central Europe. Growth of spruce and beech in their upper distribution ranges was projected to improve, while drought-induced production decline was projected at the species’ receding edges. The results indicate that oak production will either remain the same as in the reference period or will increase. Future production of beech seems uncertain and might decline, while spruce production is likely to increase (30).
Vulnerabilities - Overview
The increased vulnerability of forests (and people) with respect to climate change refers to several impacts (22,28):
Read moreVulnerabilities
The forest area in Poland increased from 20.8% in 1946 to 28.9% in 2007, but is still lower than the target of 33-34% (1).
Due to the current incomplete knowledge it is hard to reliably specify the impact of climate change on economic, natural and social aspects of forest management in Poland (1).
On the one hand forests may temporarily become more productive depending on air temperature or rainfall changes or reaction of trees to the higher concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. On the other hand significant changes in the amount and degree of disruptions in the forest growth, such as winds, fires, droughts, pests, diseases etc must be assumed. Therefore, it would be necessary to implement corrections in the forest protection strategy referring to the protection against biotic threats (particularly against secondary pests, diseases etc.) and abiotic threats (fires, winds, droughts, floods, extreme temperatures, season shifts etc.) (1).
Vulnerabilities – Temperate forests in Europe
Present situation
In parts of Europe with temperate forests, annual mean temperatures are below 17°C but above 6°C, and annual precipitation is at least 500 mm and there is a markedly cool winter period (2). Temperate forests are dominated by broad-leaf species with smaller amounts of evergreen broad-leaf and needle-leaf species (3). Common species include the oaks, eucalypts, acacias, beeches, pines, and birches.
Many of the major factors that influence these forests are due to human activities, including land-use and landscape fragmentation, pollution, soil nutrients and chemistry, fire suppression, alteration to herbivore populations, species loss, alien invasive species, and now climate change (4).
Forest productivity has been increasing in western Europe (5). This is thought to be from increasing CO2 in the atmosphere (6), anthropogenic nitrogen deposition (7), warming temperatures (8), and associated longer growing seasons (9).
Read moreBenefits
Globally, based on both satellite and ground-based data, climatic changes seemed to have a generally positive impact on forest productivity since the middle of the 20th century, when water was not limiting (29).
Timber production in Europe
Climate change will probably increase timber production and reduce prices for wood products in Europe. For 2000–2050 a change of timber production in Europe is expected of -4 to +5%. For 2050–2100 an increase is expected of +2 to +13% (21).
Vulnerabilities – Carpathian forests
Forests provide a number of important ecosystem services to society. They provide timber and protect against floods, mudflows, and other natural hazards by regulating water flows. Another important service is the accumulation of carbon. The more carbon is accumulated in the trees of a forest, the more this forest contributes to the mitigation of climate change. Global warming will change the composition of forests, and this will affect the provision of ecosystem services (32). This is not just due to the direct impact of higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. In particular bark beetle infestations will also likely increase due to more favourable thermal conditions and higher susceptibility of host trees due to stronger drought stress (33).
The Carpathian forests as an example
The Carpathian forests are an example of forests where significant changes are expected in the composition of tree species, leading to a reduction of forest carbon sink capacity (34). These forests are the second largest mountain range in Europe predominantly covered with forests. They span seven countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Ukraine). Because carbon sequestration is the most important climate regulating function in European temperate forests (35), the Carpathians play a key role in climate change mitigation for the region (31).
Read moreAdaptation strategies
An important element of the adoption strategy to climate change is to leave representative forest areas to spontaneous adaptation processes (referential forests) without the economic intervention and to shift the obtained knowledge to economic areas (1).
Forest ecosystems are a very significant element in water resources management. The National Water Management Strategy implementation plan, therefore, should include the following recommendations pertaining to actions in the forest sector (1):
- improving the coordination of the forest resources management policy with the water management policy in a way that allows maintaining and increasing water services rendered by forest ecosystems, in particular within enhancing the catchments retention;
- supporting the afforestation in places that play a key role in the processes of improving the catchments retention, developing outflow and enhancing the condition of water and water-depending ecosystems;
- protecting and restoring destroyed forests in upper parts of river catchments;
- developing complex and cohesive programmes of increasing the water retention in forest divisions affected by lack of water, integrating hydrological and ecological analysis, as well as presenting proposals of technical and non-technical solutions;
- supporting activities in respect of reducing the surface runoff and increasing the natural retention in forests;
- providing the permanent existence and restoration of peat bogs, boggy areas and seepage spring area, as well as natural (unregulated) flows;
- eliminating dehydration systems in forests;
- supporting the restoration of natural water conditions;
- reducing total logging and increasing sources of decomposing wood.
Adaptation strategies - Forest management measures in general
Near-nature forest management and a move away from monocultures toward mixed forest types, in terms of both species and age classes, are advocated. In addition, natural or imitated natural regeneration is indicated as a method of maintaining genetic diversity, and subsequently reducing vulnerability. For management against extreme disturbances, improvements in fire detection and suppression techniques are recommended, as well as methods for combating pests and diseases. It is reported that through stricter quarantine and sanitary management, the impact of insects and diseases can be minimized. The establishment of migration corridors between forest reserves may aid in the autonomous colonization and migration of species in response to climate change (26).
Adaptation strategies - Carpathian forests
Foresighted management strategies are needed to facilitate vegetation adaptation to climate change, with the goal of stabilizing carbon storage and maintaining economic value of future Carpathian forests. The authors of this study recommend that managers consider fostering highly productive tree species where they are expected to be adaptable in the future, and facilitating the adaptation of forest vegetation to novel environmental conditions where disturbances are expected to increase significantly. Active measures, like planting of oak, beech, and fir at higher locations, may facilitate the adjustment process (31).
Adaptive management
The terms adaptation and adaptive management are often incorrectly used interchangeably. The former involves making adjustments in response to or in anticipation of climate change whereas the latter describes a management system that may be considered, in itself, to be an adaptation tactic (23). Adaptive management is a systematic process for continually improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of operational programmes (24). It involves recognizing uncertainty and establishing methodologies to test hypotheses concerning those uncertainties; it uses management as a tool not only to change the system but to learn about the system (25).
Read moreReferences
The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Poland.
- Ministry of the Environment and the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Managementof the Republic of Poland (2010)
- Walter (1979), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Melillo et al. (1993), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Reich and Frelich (2002), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Carrer and Urbinati (2006), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Field et al. (2007b), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Hyvönen et al. (2007); Magnani et al. (2007), both in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Marshall et al. (2008), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Chmielewski and Rötzer (2001); Parmesan (2006), both in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Alcamo et al. (2007); Field et al. (2007b); Alo and Wang (2008), all in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Lucht et al. (2006); Scholze et al. (2006); Alo and Wang (2008), all in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Williams et al. (2000); Williams and Liebhold (2002); Logan and Powell (2001); Tran et al. (2007); Friedenberg et al. (2008), all in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Iverson and Prasad (2001); Ohlemüller et al. (2006); Fischlin et al. (2007); Golubyatnikov and Denisenko (2007), all in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Perry et al. (2008), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Liski et al. (2002), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Piao et al. (2008), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Morales et al. (2007), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Christensen et al. (2007); Fischlin et al. (2007); Meehl et al. (2007); Schneider et al. (2007), all in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Hanson and Weltzin (2000), in: Fischlin (ed.) (2009)
- Karjalainen et al. (2003); Nabuurs et al. (2002); Perez-Garcia et al. (2002); Sohngen et al. (2001), in: Osman-Elasha and Parrotta (2009)
- Innes (ed.) (2009)
- Ogden and Innes (2007), in: Innes (ed.) (2009)
- BCMOF (2006a), in: Innes (ed.) (2009)
- Holling (1978); Lee (1993, 2001), all in: Innes (ed.) (2009)
- Roberts (ed.) (2009)
- Keskitalo (2008), in: Roberts (ed.) (2009)
- Kirilenko and Sedjo (2007)
- Boisvenue et al. (2006)
- Hlásny et al. (2011)
- Kruhlov et al. (2018)
- Hlásny et al. (2016, 2017); Keeton et al. (2013), both in: Kruhlov et al. (2018)
- Kautz et al. (2017); Netherer et al. (2015), both in: Kruhlov et al. (2018)
- Bonan (2008), in: Kruhlov et al. (2018)
- Naudts et al. (2016); Schwaab et al. (2015); Thom et al. (2017b), all in: Kruhlov et al. (2018)
- Prots and Kagalo (2012), in: Kruhlov et al. (2018)
- Thom et al. (2017a), in: Kruhlov et al. (2018)
- Alder and Hostetler (2013), in: Kruhlov et al. (2018)
- Shvidenko et al. (2017), in: Kruhlov et al. (2018)
- Hanewinkel et al. (2013); Hickler et al. (2012); Thom et al. (2017a), all in: Kruhlov et al. (2018)