Germany
Security and Crisis management
A very detailed overview on security implications of climate change has been presented by O’Brien et al. (2008) in the report: Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Human Security. An extensive summary of this report is presented on the page for Norway. Most of the information below is from papers by the European Commission (2008) and the German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007).
Vulnerabilities - Emergency preparedness in Germany
There are lessons to be learned from the 2002 floods for a.o. emergency preparedness. Both in the Czech Republic and in Germany, hospitals were affected by the floods.
In Dresden, five hospitals, with a total of >5,000 beds, were evacuated when they were surrounded by water. At the flooded hospitals, many of the electrical services and computer server facilities were installed in underground ducts. It is questionable whether it is beneficial and cost-effective to install sensitive technical equipment underground when there is a risk of flooding. Emergency equipment should be placed at a relatively high level in the building (3).
In the Czech Republic, the floods caused power outages, making it difficult or impossible to inform and communicate with staff and patients in the affected hospitals. Communication equipment that works without electricity and reaches both staff and patients in all hospital wards must be installed. As a result of the floods, many computerized case record systems were non-functional. Secure patient reports should be backed-up on computer servers outside of the hospitals. This source must be capable of quickly supplying hard copies (3).
There is also much to be learned from the German Defense Forces’ air support capability for the large-scale evacuation of severely ill patients over long distances. In the future, the procedure for the long-distance transportation of a large number of severely ill or injured people should be clarified in national plans. The plans must be able to be implemented on short notice. Coordination and management of a large-scale evacuation must be clarified and practiced. Helicopters for short-distance transportation and planes for long-distance transportation are the best ways to evacuate patients from hospitals. Hospitals should have helipads above possible flood levels (3).
Vulnerabilities - According to the European Commission
Since the EU’s neighbours include some of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, e.g. North Africa and the Middle East, migratory pressure at the European Union's borders and political instability and conflicts could increase in the future. The European Commission published a paper that enumerates all the threats driven by climate change and related in one way or another to security issues (1):
Read moreVulnerabilities - According to the German Advisory Council on Global Change
Climate-induced conflict constellations
The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WGBU) made an assessment on global security risks of climate change (2). WBGU considers that climate-induced inter-state wars are unlikely to occur. However, climate change could well trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence. WBGU identifies four conflict constellations in which critical developments can be anticipated as a result of climate change and which may occur with similar characteristics in different regions of the world. “Conflict constellations” are defined as typical causal linkages at the interface of environment and society, whose dynamic can lead to social destabilization and, in the end, to violence.
- Climate-induced degradation of freshwater resources. 1.1 billion people are currently without access to safe drinking water. The situation could worsen for hundreds of millions of people
- Climate-induced decline in food production.More than 850 million people worldwide are currently undernourished. This situation is likely to worsen in future as a result of climate change, due to a drop in agricultural productivity, desertification, soil salinization and water scarcity.
- Climate-induced increase in storm and flood disasters.The risk of natural disasters occurring in many cities and industrial regions in coastal zones will be further amplified by deforestation along the upper reaches of rivers, land subsidence in large urban areas and the ever greater spatial concentration of populations and assets.
- Environmentally-induced migration.It can be assumed that the number of environmental migrants will substantially rise in future due to the impacts of climate change. Most environmental migration is initially likely to occur within national borders. Transboundary environmental migration will mainly take the form of south-south migration, but Europe and North America must also expect substantially increased migratory pressure from regions most at risk from climate change.
Six threats to international stability and security
In light of current knowledge about the social impacts of climate change, the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WGBU) identifies the following six key threats to international security and stability which will arise if climate change mitigation fails (2):
Read moreDefinition of water security according to the UNDP
Water security is about ensuring that every person has reliable access to enough safe water at an affordable price so as to lead a healthy, dignified and productive life, while maintaining the ecological systems that provide water and which also depend on water. If these conditions are not met, or if access to water is disrupted, people face acute human security risks transmitted through poor health and the disruption of livelihoods. Sufficient, safe, acceptable, physically accessible and affordable water for personal and domestic use are the five core attributes that represent the foundations for water security (4).
Adaptation strategies - According to the European Commission
According to the European Commission (1), the EU should focus on:
- Enhancing capacities at the EU level: build up knowledge and assess the EU's own capacities, followed by an improvement in the prevention of, and preparedness for early responses to, disasters and conflicts. Monitoring and early warning needs to include in particular situations of state fragility and political radicalisation, tensions over resources and energy supplies, environmental and socio-economic stresses, threats to critical infrastructures and economic assets, border disputes, impact on human rights and potential migratory movements.
- EU multilateral leadership to promote global climate security: the EU needs to continue and strengthen its leadership towards an ambitious post-2012 agreement in 2009, including both mitigation and adaptation action by all countries as a key contribution to addressing climate security.
- Cooperation with third countries: greater prioritisation and enhanced support for climate change mitigation and adaptation, good governance, natural resource management, technology transfer, trans-boundary environmental cooperation (inter alia water and land), institutional strengthening and capacity building for crisis management.
Adaptation strategies - According to the German Advisory Council on Global Change
According to the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WGBU) a number of initiatives are needed (2):
Read moreReferences
The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Germany.
- European Commission (2008)
- German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007)
- Näsman et al. (2007)
- UNDP (2009)