The Estonian coast

Estonia has a long (3,800 km) coastline due to numerous peninsulas, bays and islands (over 1,500). It has large untouched bogs (ca 15% of territory), a large number of lakes (ca 1,450) and rivers, and a very flat relief (almost two thirds of the territory lies less than 50 m above sea level). The highest point is Suur Munamägi, 317 m above sea level). It has limestone cliffs all along the Nordic coastline of the mainland and largest islands (1).

Sea level rise in Estonia

Global sea level rise has been 1-2 mm/yr during the 20th century. The postglacial land uplift rate varies in the coastal areas of Estonia between 0,5 and 3,5 mm/yr (5). Thus, while in Finland clear decreasing sea level trends are still evident (6), the present-day global sea level rise is roughly compensated by uplift in Estonia (4).

Maximum relative sea level rise by 2100 is estimated to vary from 0.9 m in southwest Estonia to 0.7 m on the northwestern coast due to different velocities of land uplift in the studied areas (3).

Global sea level rise

Observations

For the latest results: see Europe Coastal floods

Projections

For the latest results: see Europe Coastal floods

Extreme water levels - Global trends

More recent studies provide additional evidence that trends in extreme coastal high water across the globe reflect the increases in mean sea level (16), suggesting that mean sea level rise rather than changes in storminess are largely contributing to this increase (although data are sparse in many regions and this lowers the confidence in this assessment). It is therefore considered likely that sea level rise has led to a change in extreme coastal high water levels. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water levels via mean sea level contributions. While changes in storminess may contribute to changes in sea level extremes, the limited geographical coverage of studies to date and the uncertainties associated with storminess changes overall mean that a general assessment of the effects of storminess changes on storm surge is not possible at this time.

On the basis of studies of observed trends in extreme coastal high water levels it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in the future.

Short-term water level fluctuations on the Baltic Sea

Combining total land uplift and change in sea level records, a summarized sea level rise during the period 1924-2003 between 7,5 and 15,3 cm was obtained. According to the estimates of the global mean sea level rise, about 7-8 cm could be explained by that global component. Up to 6 cm should be explained regionally or locally. Mean sea level in Estonia has a significant positive correlation with storminess and atmospheric circulation indices (7). If the frequency and intensity of westerly storms continue to increase, we may anticipate a further rise in sea level of up to ten cm along the windward locations of the heavily serrated Estonian coast (4).

Vulnerabilities – The storm Gudrun

In Pärnu (Estonia) the storm resulted in the highest storm surge ever recorded. It was the worst natural disasters for Estonia in terms of property damage due to storm wind and flooding. The maximum coastline recession reached about 1 km in Pärnu, flooding densely populated urban areas (11).

Vulnerabilities – Coastal flood risk

The main hazards and economic losses in Estonia will result from the rise of sea level which will cause flooding in coastal areas, the erosion of sandy beaches and the destruction of harbor constructions. Also a number of valuable natural ecosystems will be in danger. These include both marine and terrestrial systems containing rare plant communities and suitable breeding places for birds (1).

Economic impacts of sea level rise for Europe

The direct and indirect costs of sea level rise for Europe have been modelled for a range of sea level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s (17). The results show:

1. First, sea-level rise has negative economic effects but these effects are not particularly dramatic. In absolute terms, optimal coastal defence can be extremely costly. However, on an annual basis, and compared to national GDP, these costs are quite small. On a relative basis, the highest value is represented by the 0.2% of GDP in Estonia in 2085.
2. Second, the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indeed affects landlocked countries as well. Because of international trade, countries that have relatively small direct impacts of sea-level rise, and even landlocked countries such as Austria, gain in competitiveness.
3. Third, adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level. This may well imply that some European countries will need to adopt a coastal zone management policy that is more integrated and more forward looking than is currently the case.

Adaptation strategies - The costs of adaptation

Both the risk of sea-level rise and the costs of adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union have been estimated for 2100 compared with 2000 (18). Model calculations have been made based on the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios. In these projections both flooding due to sea-level rise near the coast and the backwater effect of sea level rise on the rivers have been included. Salinity intrusion into coastal aquifers has not been included, only salt water intrusion into the rivers. Changes in storm frequency and intensity have not been considered; the present storm surge characteristics are simply displaced upwards with the rising sea level following 20th century observations. The assessment is based on national estimates of GDP.

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Estonia.

1. Ministry of the Environment of Estonia (2009)
2. Orviku et al. (2003)
3. Kont et al. (2003)
4. Kont et al. (2007)
5. Vallner et al. (1988), in: Kont et al. (2007)
6. Johansson et al. (2004)
7. Suursaar et al. (2006a)
8. Suursaar and Kullas (2006)
9. Jylhä et al. (2004); Räisänen et al. (2003), in: Suursaar et al. (2006a)
10. Meier et al. (2004), in: Suursaar and Kullas (2006)
11. Suursaar et al. (2006b)
12. Kont et al. (2008)
13. Bindoff et al. (2007), in: IPCC (2012)
14. Church and White (2011), in: IPCC (2012)
15. Velicogna (2009); Rignot et al. (2011); Sørensen et al. (2011), all in: IPCC (2012)
16. Marcos et al. (2009); Haigh et al. (2010); Menendez and Woodworth (2010), all in: IPCC (2012)
17. Bosello et al. (2012)
18. Hinkel et al. (2010)
19. Cazenave et al. (2014)
20. IPCC (2014)
21. Watson et al. (2015)
22. Yi et al. (2015)
23. Church et al. (2013), in: Watson et al. (2015)
24. Shepherd et al. (2012), in: Watson et al. (2015)
25. Church et al. (2013), in: Watson et al. (2015)