Portugal Portugal Portugal Portugal

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The number and the extent of large forest fires in Portugal are increasing. According to scientists a new era of forest fires has begun, and it started somewhere around 1987.

Climate change is expected to change the optimal zones for grape varieties. Grapes are expected to ripen earlier in warmer climates, but unbalanced ripening may lead to lower wine quality.

The global area of dryland is increasing rapidly. This was shown from data over the period 1948–2005, and seems to proceed towards the end of this century.

If current management of oak forests is maintained, climate change may result in 20% decrease in cork production in 2100. Adapted management strategies include reducing debarking intensity

Precipitation in Portugal is projected to decrease throughout this century, and more clustered into extreme events, accentuating the vulnerability

European wine farms show considerable potential to improve their economic performance, and thereby ease their situation in a global change scenario.

In Portugal, during 1865-2010 1,621 disastrous floods and 281 disastrous landslides were recorded that led to casualties or injuries, and

For the period 1927–2011, Portuguese data on landings of species with affinity for temperate waters generally presented a decreasing trend, whereas

Since 1980 an area equivalent to 3/5 of the forested surface in Portugal has burned. The burnt areas in July and August account for 71% of the total burnt area in Portugal.

Severe hurricane-force (> 32.6 m/s) storms can cause floods in west-European coastal regions and inflict large-scale damage on infrastructure and agriculture.

The combined effect of changes in recharge, crop water demand and sea level rise on groundwater levels and flow into coastal wetlands was studied for three Mediterranean areas ...

Natural disasters by landslides and floods are frequent events on Madeira Island ...

Wine production is projected to increase by about 10% by the end of the 21st century, while the occurrence of high production years is expected to increase from 25% to over 60% ...

Wine production along the Douro Valley is projected to increase for 2071–2100 compared with 1961–1990 because of the combined effects of temperature and precipitation ...

A commercial opportunity for fisheries may arise from climate warming, since most of the new species were commercial species ...

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I recommend

National plans/strategies for Portugal

  • Sixth National Communication of Portugal under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2014). Download.

Reports/papers that focus on important Portuguese topics

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Reports/papers that present a sound overview for Europe

  • Eisenreich (2005). Climate change and the European water dimension. A report to the European water directors.
  • European Environment Agency (2005). Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe. Download.
  • European Environment Agency, JRC and WHO (2008). Impact of Europe’s changing climate – 2008 indicator-based assessment. Download.

Reports/papers that focus on specific topics, relevant for all of Europe

  • Agriculture: Rounsevell et al. (2005). Future scenarios of European agricultural land use II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Download.
  • Agriculture: Fischer et al. (2005). Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Download.
  • Biodiversity: Thuiller et al. (2005). Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Download.
  • Coastal erosion: Salman et al. (2004). Living with coastal erosion in Europe: sediment and space for sustainability. Download.
  • Droughts: Blenkinsop and Fowler (2007). Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Download.
  • Droughts: European Environment Agency (2009). Water resources across Europe – confronting water scarcity and drought. Download.
  • Forestry: Seppälä et al. (2009). Adaptation of forests and people to climate change. A global assessment report. Download.
  • Health: Kosatsky (2005). The 2003 European heat waves. Download.
  • Health: WHO (2008). Protecting health in Europe from climate change. Download.
  • Insurance and Business: Mills et al. (2005). Availability and affordability of insurance under climate change. A growing challenge for the U.S. Download.
  • Security and Crisis management: German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007). World in transition: Climate change as a security risk. Summary for policy-makers. Download.
  • Storms: Gardiner et al. (2010). Destructive storms in European forests: Past and forthcoming impacts. Download.
  • Storms: Pinto et al. (2007). Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Download.
  • Tourism: Deutsche Bank Research (2008). Climate change and tourism: Where will the journey lead? Download.

Weblogs in English and Portuguese

EU funded Research Projects

Agriculture

Aquifers

Biodiversity

Climate change scenarios

Coastal areas

Droughts and water scarcity

Floods

Forest fires

Fresh water resources

Mitigation / adaptation options and costs

Security and Crisis management

Urban areas

Tourism Portugal

Tourism in numbers - Europe

Europe is the most important tourist region in the world. According to UNWTO, in 2006 nearly 55% of all international tourist arrivals (461 million) were on the “old continent”.Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region are the favourite holiday destinations in Europe. According to UNWTO, in 2006 about 165 million tourists visited these regions (3).

At present, the predominant summer tourist flows in Europe are from north to south, to the coastal zone. However, coastal and mountain tourism are the segments that are most vulnerable to climate change, and the Mediterranean region is the world's most popular holiday region: it attracts some 120 million visitors from northern Europe each year, the largest international flow of tourists on the globe, and their spending is in excess of EUR 100 billion (1).

Tourism in numbers - Portugal

Like Spain, Portugal also has a relatively high proportion of foreign visitors, almost 60%, in terms of overnight stays. It also has an above-average reliance on tourism (14% of GDP). Portugal's most important holiday region, by a wide margin, is the Algarve in the south of the country, with its focus on “sea and sand” holidays (3).

Vulnerabilities – In general

There are four broad categories of climate change impacts that will affect tourism destinations, their competitiveness and sustainability (2):

  • Direct climatic impacts
  • Indirect environmental change impacts. Changes in water availability, biodiversity loss, reduced landscape aesthetic, altered agricultural production (e.g., wine tourism), increased natural hazards, coastal erosion and inundation, damage to infrastructure and the increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases will all impact tourism to varying degrees.
  • Impacts of mitigation policies on tourist mobility.Policies that seek to reduce GHG emissions will lead to an increase in transport costs and may foster environmental attitudes that lead tourists to change their travel patterns.
  • Indirect societal change impacts. Climate change is thought to pose a risk to future economic growth and to the political stability of some nations. Climate change is considered a national and international security risk that will steadily intensify, particularly under greater warming scenarios. Tourists, particularly international tourists, are averse to political instability and social unrest.

Vulnerabilities - Portugal

The Algarve could be negatively affected by climate change. In the Mediterranean states, increasing average temperatures, together with the increasing probability of heatwaves, could result in temperatures exceeding comfortable levels more frequently in the future. It is estimated that, by2030, the region will have a noticeable increase in the number of days with temperatures above 40°C. Other problems are shortages of water, that restrict the operation of tourist facilities (swimming pools, golf courses), and increasing risk of forest fires in many areas. The return of malaria to the southern Mediterranean region also cannot be ruled out (3).

Adaptation strategies – In general

Climate change is slowly entering into decision-making of a range of tourism stakeholders (e.g., investors, insurance companies, tourism enterprises, governments, and tourists); studies that have examined the climate change risk appraisal of local tourism officials and operators have consistently found relatively low levels of concern and little evidence of long-term strategic planning in anticipation of future changes in climate (2).


There is also some evidence that local tourism operators may be overestimating their adaptive capacity (e.g., capacity to make snow under the warmest scenarios). The incorporation of adaptation to climate change into the collective minds of private and public sector tourism decision-makers (‘mainstreaming’) remains several steps away (2).

The capacity of the tourism sector to adapt to climate change is thought to be relatively high due to its dynamic nature and therefore there will be important opportunities for tourism to reduce the vulnerability of communities to climate change (2).

Adaptation strategies - Portugal

In Portugal, the aim should be to direct tourist flows firstly towards the off-peak season, and secondly to the northern part of the country, in which tourism is still relatively undeveloped (3).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Portugal.

  1. EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
  2. UNWTO, UNEP and WHO (2008)
  3. Deutsche Bank Research (2008)
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