Projected changes in hailstorms during the 21st century over the UK

Storms producing large damaging hailstones are rare in the UK, and almost always occur during the summer months. No trend in storms producing hailstones with diameters of 40mm or greater was identified between 1800 and 1999 over the UK, or in the number of damaging hailstorms (hailstones greater than 15mm diameter) between 1930 and 2000.

Due to climate change, a downward trend in the total number of damaging hailstorms during the 21st century was projected, from a single (regional) model simulation of future climate (the A1B medium emissions scenario). This downward trend showed statistically significant trends for hailstones with diameters between 21 and 50 mm. These results are subject to large uncertainties, however.

Source: Sanderson et al., 2015. International Journal of Climatology 35: 15–24.

Photo: Dirk Haun (www.flickr.com)