The future of dry and wet spells in Europe

Changes in dry and wet spell characteristics in Europe have been projected for 2021–2050 compared with 1961–1990.

From the results it can be concluded that significant changes in dry and wet event characteristics are expected with high confidence in the southernmost (mainly France, Italy, and Spain) and northernmost (mainly Iceland and Scandinavia) regions of Europe, respectively. Southern Europe is most probably facing an increased risk of longer, more frequent, severe, and widespread droughts, while northern Europe is facing increased risk of intensified wet events.

For precipitation, the most pronounced changes are found for the Iberian Peninsula in summer (−17.2%) and for Scandinavia in winter (+14.6%).

Source: Heinrich and Gobiet, 2012. International  Journal of Climatology 32: 1951–1970.

Photo: W. ten Brinke