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Changes in wind speeds in Northern Europe until 2100

Changes in wind speeds in Northern Europe until 2100
17 May 2013

Mean and extreme wind speeds in Northern Europe have been projected for the future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100.

Mean wind speeds: During the windiest time of the year, the monthly mean wind speeds will start to increase in the Baltic Sea already in 2046–2065. In Finland, increases are largest (5–7%) in November and January by 2081–2100. In November–February 2081–2100, a positive shift of 5–10% is projected to materialize in the Baltic Sea.

Extreme wind speeds: The extreme wind speeds (10-year return level estimates) will increase on average by 2–4% in the southern and eastern parts of Northern Europe, whereas a decrease of 2–6% dominates over the Norwegian Sea. These results agree with results on the future projections of 20-year return level estimates of gust winds that showed that the increase in winds is dominant in a zone stretching from northern parts of France over the Baltic Sea towards northeast (Nikulin et al. (2011)).

 

Source: Gregow et al., 2011. International Journal of Climatology 32: 1834–1846.

Photo: Christian Holmér (www.flickr.com)

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