Italy Italy Italy Italy

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Anthropogenic climate change will likely alter ecosystems in the Mediterranean this century in a way that is without precedent during the past 10,000 years.

Annual number of landslides in central Italy will increase by 30% and 45% for 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively. This is due to an increase of rainfall intensity in the hours prior to landslides.

In contrast to global climate model projections the intensity of summer rainfall may increase. This is important for fresh water supply and, for instance, with respect to flash floods.

For the Alps, the main trigger of debris flows is high intensity, short duration rainfall. Under future climate change, it is likely that increases in extreme rainfall will alter debris flow frequency

The global area of dryland is increasing rapidly. This was shown from data over the period 1948–2005, and seems to proceed towards the end of this century.

In Italy, landslides are a serious threat to the population: in the period 1954–2013 1279 persons were killed and 1731 were injured by landslides. Rainfall is the primary trigger

Global warming affects precipitation volumes in the Alps, the contribution of rain and snow to these volumes, and the timing of snowmelt. An overall decrease in snow cover

There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature

Climate-change driven increase in rainfall erosivity could have strong adverse effects for the Mediterranean, such as an exacerbated soil degradation

According to a recent study, the chance of extremely hot summers would have increased dramatically since the 2003 European heat wave.

European wine farms show considerable potential to improve their economic performance, and thereby ease their situation in a global change scenario.

The northern Adriatic Sea has been influenced by significant warming of air temperature, changes in precipitation pattern, and a varying Po river runoff

The Mediterranean Sea is warming in both shallow and deep waters. This warming is part of global climate trends and not a regional phenomenon.

In the Alps, the overall frequency of debris flows may decrease in absolute terms, but the magnitude of events may increase.

Strong reduction of snow cover in the Alps is expected to have major impacts on winter tourism. Many ski-regions have mean elevations below 2,000 m

Model results present no statistical evidence of changes of storm surge statistics in the future climate scenario. This shows that likely the main hazard to Venice is posed by future sea level rise.

One of the areas most negatively affected by climate change is the Po-valley in Northern Italy, which is both heavily urbanized and also one of the largest industrialized regions in Europe.

So far, forest fires do not constitute a significant hazard in the central and northern parts of the Alps, while on the southern side they are more common

Substantial reductions in potential groundwater recharge are projected for the 21st century in southern Europe and increases in northern Europe ...

The extremes of possible climate-change-driven habitat range size reductions are commonly based on two assumptions ...

Will tidal flooding events in Venice increase in frequency and intensity during the 21st century? This has been debated recently ...

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I recommend

National plans/strategies for Italy

  • Sixth National Communication of Italy under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2014). Download.

Reports/papers that focus on important Italian topics

  • Insurance: The effect of potentially catastrophic events on insurance demand in Italy (2014). Download.
  • Agriculture, forest fires: Giannakopoulos et al. (2009). Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2°C global warming. Download.
  • Climate Change: observations, projections and impacts. Downloads.
  • Coastal flood risk (Venice): Ravera (2000).The Lagoon of Venice: the result of both natural factors and human influence. Download.
  • Desertification, agriculture, landslides a.o.: Carraro and Sgobbi (2008). Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in Italy. An economic assessment. Download.
  • Fresh water resources: Collins (2009). Water scarcity and drought in the Mediterranean. Download.
  • River flood risk: Mambretti et al. (2008). Flood-risk assessment and hazard mitigation measures: case studies and lessons learnt in Italy. Download.

Reports/papers that present a sound overview for Europe

  • Eisenreich (2005). Climate change and the European water dimension. A report to the European water directors.
  • European Environment Agency (2005). Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe. Download.
  • European Environment Agency, JRC and WHO (2008). Impact of Europe’s changing climate – 2008 indicator-based assessment. Download.

Reports/papers that focus on specific topics, relevant for all of Europe

  • Agriculture: Rounsevell et al. (2005). Future scenarios of European agricultural land use II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Download.
  • Agriculture: Fischer et al. (2005). Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Download.
  • Biodiversity: Thuiller et al. (2005). Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Download.
  • Coastal erosion: Salman et al. (2004). Living with coastal erosion in Europe: sediment and space for sustainability. Download.
  • Droughts: Blenkinsop and Fowler (2007). Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Download.
  • Droughts: European Environment Agency (2009). Water resources across Europe – confronting water scarcity and drought. Download.
  • Forestry: Seppälä et al. (2009). Adaptation of forests and people to climate change. A global assessment report. Download.
  • Health: Kosatsky (2005). The 2003 European heat waves. Download.
  • Health: WHO (2008). Protecting health in Europe from climate change. Download.
  • Insurance and Business: Mills et al. (2005). Availability and affordability of insurance under climate change. A growing challenge for the U.S. Download.
  • Security and Crisis management: German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007). World in transition: Climate change as a security risk. Summary for policy-makers. Download.
  • Storms: Gardiner et al. (2010). Destructive storms in European forests: Past and forthcoming impacts. Download.
  • Storms: Pinto et al. (2007). Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Download.
  • Tourism: Deutsche Bank Research (2008). Climate change and tourism: Where will the journey lead? Download.

Weblogs in English and Italian

Weblogs in Italian

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EU funded Research Projects

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Avalanches and landslides

Biodiversity

Climate change scenarios

Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities

Coastal areas

Cultural-historical heritage

Droughts and water scarcity

Energy

Flash Floods

Floods

Forest fires

Forestry

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Insurance and Business

Land use

Mitigation / adaptation integrated policy

Mitigation / adaptation options and costs

Security and Crisis management

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Viniculture Italy

Vulnerabilities - Italy

Wine production in Italy will be affected (1,2,3):

  • increases in heat accumulation will reduce the total area available for wine grape production and will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties;
  • while frost constraints will be reduced, the increase in the frequency of extreme hot days in the growing season are projected to reduce wine grape production in many areas of the South of Italy and in many areas where premium wine production takes place.

Adaptation strategies

For Tuscany (central Italy) the effect of two important adaptation measures was assessed to counterbalance the effect of warmer temperatures and lower precipitation under climate change on grape yield and quality: (a) relocating the grape production area uphill, where there is less climate impact on wine quality, and (b) using an ‘‘exotic’’ grape variety (e.g. a southern Italian variety), which is drought resistant, to replace the current grape variety. It was concluded that it is generally recommendable to use a combination of these adaptation measures starting with relocating, because the benefit of a new variety is not yet certain (4). 

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Italy.

  1. Bartolini et al. (2008), in: Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea of Italy (2009)
  2. Bindi et al. (1996), in: Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea of Italy (2009)
  3. Orlandini et al. (2009), in: Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea of Italy (2009)
  4. Zhu et al. (2016)
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