Hungary Hungary Hungary Hungary

Previously in ClimateChangePost

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In the Carpathian Region, heat wave events have become more frequent, longer, more severe and intense over the period 1961 - 2010, in particular in summer

The summer of 2012 was very hot and dry in South-East Europe. From model simulations and observations it was concluded that the magnitude and frequency of heat waves have increased

On the Rhine–Main–Danube corridor no decrease in the performance of inland waterway transport due to extreme weather events is expected till 2050.

In 2010, Hungary became one of the top 5 exporters of maize in the world. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rain fed, and water licences are massively underexploited.

The impact of hydrological changes on navigation conditions has been studied for the Rhine-Main-Danube corridor, one of the most important waterways in Europe ...

In response to climate change soil erosion hazard is expected to increase, drought hazard is expected to become a serious problem in ...

The impacts of the simulated climate change on the air quality are rather weak for the mid-century 2041−2050 ...

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I recommend

National plans/strategies for Hungary

  • Sixth National Communication of Hungary  to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2014). Download.
  • Climate change and Hungary: mitigating the hazards and preparing for the impacts. Download.

Reports/papers that focus on important Hungarian topics

  • Lake Balaton: Somlyódy and Honti (2005). The case of Lake Balaton: how can we exercise precaution.
  • Tourism: Rátz and Vizi (2004). The impacts of global climate change on water resources and tourism: the responses of Lake Balaton and Lake Tisza. Download.

Reports/papers that present a sound overview for Europe

  • Eisenreich (2005). Climate change and the European water dimension. A report to the European water directors.
  • European Environment Agency (2005). Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe. Download.
  • European Environment Agency, JRC and WHO (2008). Impact of Europe’s changing climate – 2008 indicator-based assessment. Download.

Reports/papers that focus on specific topics, relevant for all of Europe

  • Agriculture: Rounsevell et al. (2005). Future scenarios of European agricultural land use II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Download.
  • Agriculture: Fischer et al. (2005). Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Download.
  • Biodiversity: Thuiller et al. (2005). Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Download.
  • Coastal erosion: Salman et al. (2004). Living with coastal erosion in Europe: sediment and space for sustainability. Download.
  • Droughts: Blenkinsop and Fowler (2007). Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Download.
  • Droughts: European Environment Agency (2009). Water resources across Europe – confronting water scarcity and drought. Download.
  • Forestry: Seppälä et al. (2009). Adaptation of forests and people to climate change. A global assessment report. Download.
  • Health: Kosatsky (2005). The 2003 European heat waves. Download.
  • Health: WHO (2008). Protecting health in Europe from climate change. Download.
  • Insurance and Business: Mills et al. (2005). Availability and affordability of insurance under climate change. A growing challenge for the U.S. Download.
  • Security and Crisis management: German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007). World in transition: Climate change as a security risk. Summary for policy-makers. Download.
  • Storms: Gardiner et al. (2010). Destructive storms in European forests: Past and forthcoming impacts. Download.
  • Storms: Pinto et al. (2007). Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Download.
  • Tourism: Deutsche Bank Research (2008). Climate change and tourism: Where will the journey lead? Download.

Weblogs in English and Hungarian

Weblogs in Hungarian

  • ...

EU funded Research Projects

Agriculture

Aquifers

Climate change scenarios

Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities

Droughts and water scarcity

Floods

Fresh water resources

Mitigation / adaptation options and costs

Transport, Infrastructure and Building

Urban areas

Insurance and Business Hungary

Vulnerabilities Hungary

Agricultural types of damages belonging to the category of elementary damage are as follows (8):

  • Drought damage 42.35%;
  • Hail damage (caused by hail storms) 20.52%;
  • Water damages (caused by flooding of surface waters, by inland excess waters – precipitation water accumulating in the large shallow depressions of flat land not infiltrating into the soil- and by the rise of the groundwater table) 18.44%;
  • Storm damage 2.65%.

Compensation of drought-damage is not undertaken by any insurance company, namely there is no risk-coverage due to the high frequency of events (out of 10 years 6-7 year are drought ridden) and to the large areas involved. It is to be noted that the Hungarian Great Plain and the southern part of Trans-Danubia will fall into semi-arid zone (the zone to where Sicily and Southern Spain falls presently), according to the scenarios provided by the climate models for the time period of 2030-2050. These facts put a warning question mark to the successfulness of future agricultural activities in Hungary. Activities of national scale preparedness and prevention, involving several sectors of the national economy, need substantial financial resources, which are much exceeding that available in the agricultural sector. For this reason it is expectable that the whole insurance system must be restructured, involving new multi-partner type nonprofit insurance companies to take the risks and cover expenditures (8).

According to the available assessments on climate change and risk for agriculture management from the point of view of the insurance sector, the weather risk will be amplified in the near future, unfavourably affecting the crop yield and its security, and also the environmental security in a broader sense (8).

Insured losses - Globally

Globally, insured and total property losses are rising faster than premiums, population, or economic growth; inflation adjusted economic losses from catastrophic events rose by 8-fold between the 1960s and 1990s and insured losses by 17-fold. Large catastrophic events cause less damage in an average year than the aggregated impacts of relatively small events (a 40/60 ratio globally) (7).


In the United States, averaged over the past 55 years, weather-related events have been responsible for 93% of all catastrophe events, 83% of the economic damages of natural disasters, and 87% of the insured losses. ... The observed upward trend in losses is consistent with what would be expected under climate change and with demographic factors (7).

Flood risk insurance in Europe

Insurance can be considered an adaptation strategy since it reduces the follow-on economic impacts of extreme events and thus stabilizes the income and consumption stream of the affected, and thus clearly reduces vulnerability and impacts (15).

Different insurance and compensation systems

Insurance and compensation systems for flood risk in Europe have been divided into three categories (9):

  1. Traditional (private) insurance systems. This system is in place in most European countries (in 15 out of 19 studied countries). Systems are set up and managed by private companies, where the cover is financed from premiums that are paid before the event (ex ante). Some of these systems may have support from the government, for instance through state-guaranteed reinsurance. Countries where at least half the population has taken out flood insurance are: Portugal, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Hungary, Norway and Sweden. Countries where less than half of the population has taken out flood insurance are: Italy, Greece, Austria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic Germany, Poland, Finland;
  2. Insurance or pooling systems in which the government has a considerable role, through setting up and managing the pool. Cover is provided through ex ante premiums or ex ante taxes on insurance policies. This is the case in Belgium, Denmark and Switzerland. In Belgium, however, a compulsory insurance system has been put in place since late 2005;
  3. Systems administered by the government, consisting of ex post compensation of flood losses. These systems are not considered to be insurance, as the basic property of ex ante premium or tax collection is not present. Rather, loss compensation is paid from tax money, either ad hoc or through budget reservations. Out of 19 studied European countries this system is only in place in the Netherlands.

Insurance markets are rather imperfect and are unlikely to generate adequate adaptation responses to climate risk due to uncertainty and imperfect information, missing and misaligned markets and financial constraints. Government support is therefore necessary and widespread in the EU and elsewhere. Governments of EU member states regulate, subsidize or even offer insurance for flood or drought risks; yet, in many instances markets and public-private partnership offer only limited coverage or are extremely restricted, such as for flood risk in the Netherlands, which leads to substantial government liabilities for member states, which to some extent are buffered by the EU solidarity fund government compensation scheme (10).

The table below summarizes the key properties of insurance and compensation systems for covering losses incurred by households and business in a selection of EU member states (11). Private insurance systems (“bundle system” or the “option system”) are distinguished from government solutions (ex post compensation by the government, paid from tax revenues). The fifth column indicates whether private insurance is compulsory. Finally, the level of market penetration of the insurance system has been estimated.

Member state Insurance/compensation system Insurance compulsory Market penetration
  Private, ex ante, premium bundled Private, ex ante, premium optional Government, ex post compensation    
Austria   X     10-25%
Belgium X     X >75%
Czech Republic   X     25-75%
Finland   X X   10-25%
France X     X >75%
Germany   X X   10-25%
Greece X   X   <10%
Hungary X   X   40-60%
Italy   X     <10%
Netherlands   X X   <5%
Poland   X X   25-75%
Portugal X       25-75%
Spain X   X X 25-75%
Sweden X   X   >75%
UK X       >75%

EU Solidarity Fund (EUSF)

Recognising that floods and other disasters may lead to overburdening national governments and necessitate international assistance even in Europe, the EU Solidarity Fund (EUSF) was created after the floods in central Europe in summer 2002 and entered into force on November 15th of that year (12,16). Member states, and countries applying for accession, can request aid in the event of a major natural or technological disaster (13). The fund provides financial aid for emergency measures in the event of a natural disaster causing direct damages above 3 billion Euros (at 2002 prices) or 0.6% of the GNI (14). Fund support can be mobilized even if the threshold is not met, e.g. for a neighbouring country that is affected by the same major natural disaster or for extraordinary regional disasters which affect the majority of the population of a region and have serious effects on its economic stability and living conditions. There is no equivalent to addressing drought and water scarcity, however (10).

The current EU extreme event interventions are not sufficient to cope with future extreme events projected to increase in size and intensity as a result of climate change (10).

Vulnerabilities - Overview

The insurability of natural disasters and extreme weather events may be affected by increases in the frequency, severity, or unpredictability of these events. ... Climate change presents various challenges to insurability. These include technical and market-based risks (7):


Technical Risks

  • Shortening times between loss events, such as more hurricanes per season,
  • Changing absolute and relative variability of losses,
  • Changing structure of types of events,
  • Shifting spatial distribution of events,
  • Damages that increase exponentially or nonlinearly with weather intensity,
  • Widespread geographical simultaneity of losses (e.g. from tidal surges arising from a broad die-off of protective coral reefs or disease outbreaks on multiple continents),
  • Increased difficulty in anticipating "hot spots" (geographic and demographic) for particular hazards,
  • More single events with multiple, correlated consequences. This was well evidenced in the pan-European heat catastrophe of 2003. Immediate or delayed impacts included extensive human morbidity and mortality, wildfire, massive crop losses, and the curtailment of electric power plants due to the temperature or lack of cooling water, and
  • More hybrid events with multiple consequences (e.g. El Nino-related rain, ice storms, floods, mudslides, droughts, and wildfires).

Market-based Risks

  • Historically-based premiums that lag behind actual losses,
  • Failing to foresee and keep up with changing customer needs arising from the consequences of climate change,
  • Unanticipated changes in patterns of claims, and associated difficulty in adjusting pricing and reserve practices to maintain profitability,
  • Responses of insurance regulators,
  • Reputation risks falling on insurers who do not, in the eyes of consumers, do enough to prevent losses arising from climate change, and
  • Stresses unrelated to weather but conspiring with climate change impacts to amplify the net adverse impact. These include draw-downs of capital and surplus due to earthquakes or terrorist attacks and increased competition from self-insurance or other competing methods of risk-spreading.

Pressure on insurance affordability & availability under climate change

Extreme weather events have already precipitated contraction of insurance coverage in some markets, and the process can be expected to continue if the losses from such events increase in the future. Impacts vary, of course, depending on the specific circumstances, and can be relatively minor (gradual price increases) to more significant. For the United States, the following outlook has been presented for different types of issues (7):

  • Flood - currently a mix of public/private insurance and risk sharing. Under climate change, insurability problems may extend from the present personal and small commercial lines into larger commercial lines.
  • Windstorm—a largely insured risk at present. There are already considerable insurability problems and associated changes in terms and pricing, non-renewals, market withdrawl, etc. This could increase dramatically under climate change, resulting in shifting of losses to governments and consumers.
  • Agriculture and livestock—currently a public/private insurance partnership. Climate change will stress this sector considerably, with potential for impacts due to drought, flood, pests, or other events on a scale with the Great Dust Bowl of the 1930s.
  • Wildfire—currently largely privately insured. More retention of risk by purchasers of insurance and more involvement by state governments is anticipated, while insurers raise deductibles and reduce limits of liability and scope of coverage.
  • Mold and moisture damage—largely commercially insured until the crisis emerged a few years ago. Now, many states have exclusions.
  • Earth movement and coastal erosion—primarily insured by government, if at all. With permafrost melt, subsidence of dry soils, sinkholes will become more prevalent, as will mudslides and property losses from coastal erosion. Government programs covering storm-surge-driven losses on eroded property could be overwhelmed with losses under climate change, with the result of more retention by property owners.
  • Health impacts—currently largely privately insured. An insurability crisis under climate change is not anticipated. Impacts will manifest in the form of elevated health insurance prices.

Vulnerabilities - Europe

It is estimated that losses from weather events are doubling globally every 12 years. Even though the observed increase in losses is dominated by socio-economic factors (such as population growth, increased number of habitations in vulnerable areas, increased wealth, increased amount and value of vulnerable infrastructure), there is evidence that changing patterns of natural disasters are also drivers (1). It is however not known how much of this increase in losses can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change (2). After accounting for changes in population and wealth, it has been shown that changes in extreme weather events may be responsible for a growth in losses by about 2% a year since the 1970s (6).


In Europe, 64% of all loss events since 1980 are directly attributable to weather and climate events (storms, floods and heat-waves) and 25% to wild fires, cold spells, landslides and avalanches, which are also linked to weather and climate. 95% of the overall losses and 78% of all deaths caused by disastrous events result from such weather and climate-related events. The annual average number of these weather- and climate-related events in Europe increased during the period 1998–2007 by about 65% compared with the 1980s (3).

Swiss Re has estimated that in Europe the costs of a 100-year storm event could double by the 2080s with climate change (to EUR 40 billion compared with EUR 20 billion today), while average storm losses are estimated to increase by 16–68% over the same period (3). Analyses of long-term records of flood losses indicate that societal and economic factors have played an important role in the observed upward trends (4).

According to an estimate by the Reinsurance Association of America (RAA), 50% of insured losses in the world within the last 40 years have been the consequence of natural catastrophes in the 1990s. Insurance experts have warned that large regions of the world may be recategorised as ineligible for insurance, because changes in weather caused by climate change (such as heat waves and hurricanes) continue at an accelerating pace (4).

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in compensable damage, which will contribute to increased insurance premiums. This means that extreme events will result in an increased level of risk in the insurance sector. Climate change may lead to increased costs and maybe even the bankruptcy of insurance companies (5).

Adaptation strategies Hungary

Agriculture

A better level of “insurance coverage” of the country's agriculture can be reached by, a.o. (8):

  • Development of new insurance strategies for including floodplain, flood basin and sloping land areas, that are presently excluded from insurance, and thus providing better security for the harvest;
  • Provision of a fund (catastrophe fund) from the state budget for insuring harvests and establishing environmental security in the endangered regions (e.g. for drought damage);
  • In addition to export sensitive crops (cereals, oil-, protein-, filament- containing plants) it would be expedient to broaden the product-security of special cultivated fields. If insurance companies see too high risk in the insurances of such special agricultural fields and activities, then non-profit farmer’s organisations could be established also in such regions. Examples include historic wine-grape regions, orchards and market-gardening regions. The insurance coverage of such special fields is less than 10% in national scale.
  • Investments into preventive strategies should be acknowledged in the form of bonus-malus type insurances, which are effective means of reducing damages.

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Hungary.

  1. UNEP FI (2006), in: EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
  2. Höppe et al.(2006), in: EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
  3. EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
  4. Pielke Jr and Downton (2000); Mills (2005); Barredo (2007), in: EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
  5. Marttila et al. (2005)
  6. Muir-Wood et al. (2006), in: Ward et al. (2008)
  7. Mills et al. (2005)
  8. Farago et al. (2010)
  9. Bouwer et al. (2007)
  10. Aakre et al. (2010)
  11. Bouwer et al. (2007); CEA (2009); Swiss Re (1998); ISDR (2005); OECD (2005); Paklina (2003), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  12. EUFR (2004), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  13. EUFR (2002), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  14. Council Regulation (2002), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  15. Linnerooth-Bayer and Mechler (2007), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  16. Hochrainer et al. (2010)
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