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Americans, brace yourself for this year’s …

Americans, brace yourself for this year’s hurricane season

The Atlantic Ocean is extremely warm for this time of year. This warmth provides the energy for hurricanes, the number of which could double this summer compared to a normal year, experts warn.

Winemaking in Southern Europe is under …

Winemaking in Southern Europe is under serious pressure

The geography of wine production is changing. Due to excessive drought and more frequent heatwaves, most traditional wine regions in Spain, Italy and Greece are at risk of disappearing by 2100.

Heatwaves in northern Europe are increasingly …

Heatwaves in northern Europe are increasingly similar to those in the south

All over Europe, since 1950, the frequency, duration and intensity of heatwaves have increased. In the last two decades, these changes were most dramatic for northwest and central Europe.

Yes, climate change can also change …

Yes, climate change can also change the intensity of hailstorms

In August 2022, the largest hailstones ever documented in Spain injured 67 people and killed one. For the first time, a giant‐hail event has been attributed to human‐induced climate change.

The adaptation challenge of US coastal …

The adaptation challenge of US coastal cities

In US coastal cities, many more people and their homes will be at risk of coastal flooding in the coming decades than is often thought. Land subsidence is often neglected in urban planning.

No, we are not living in …

No, we are not living in the Anthropocene, scientists conclude

A scientific panel responsible for delineating the past 2.6 million years of geologic history decided that the “Age of Humans” should not be defined as a new geological epoch.

Floods have become less deadly worldwide

Floods have become less deadly worldwide

Over the last five decades, floods have become less deadly. The global number of flood events has increased over time, but the average number of people killed and affected per event has decreased.

How the Swiss continue winter sport …

How the Swiss continue winter sport in times of climate change

The retreat of the Aletsch Glacier is destabilising the slopes of its valley flanks, causing subsidence of a mountain ridge. But the innovative Swiss have found a way to continue skiing safely here.

Global trends in groundwater levels: good …

Global trends in groundwater levels: good news and bad news

Rapid groundwater decline has accelerated over the past four decades in 30% of the world’s aquifers. Fortunately, part of the aquifers is showing recovery thanks to effective measures.

Extreme salt intrusion into European estuaries …

Extreme salt intrusion into European estuaries will become increasingly common this century

As a result of much lower river discharge in the summer, salt water will intrude further inland into the estuaries, adversely affecting those who depend on fresh water.

Twenty years after the deadly heat …

Twenty years after the deadly heat of 2003, Europe’s heat response is still ineffective

Since 2003, when heat caused 70,000 deaths, heat-related mortality has been a major concern in Europe. Over 60,000 heat-related deaths in 2022 illustrate that heat response is still ineffective.

Room for the river, the exception …

Room for the river, the exception rather than the rule

We are losing more natural floodplain area each year, globally, than half a century ago. Relative land use change was largest in Europe, almost 10% of all floodplain areas since the early 1990s.

Drought magnitude and frequency in Ireland …

Drought magnitude and frequency in Ireland will increase in the summer

Ireland will experience more frequent and extreme droughts. The summer of 2018 illustrates its vulnerability to drought impacts: losses in cereal yields and water tankers to meet demand.

Storm surges in the near future: …

Storm surges in the near future: good news for some, bad news for others

Storm surges contribute to extreme sea levels and, therefore, to the risk of coastal flooding. In Europe, storm surge is projected to decrease in the Mediterranean and increase along the North Sea.

Services European forests provide to society …

Services European forests provide to society will decline, no matter what

Climate change outpaces the abilities of tree species to migrate north. Forest ecosystem services, including recreation and providing food, medicine and wood for construction, will decline.

Clear footprint of global warming on …

Clear footprint of global warming on death toll in European summer of 2022

The summer of 2022 was Europe’s hottest since 2003. A study for Switzerland shows that 60% of the people that died from heat that summer would not have died in the absence of global warming.

Facing the Climate Emergency

Facing the Climate Emergency

A book that changes the way you look at the daily rollercoaster of alarming news of the impacts of climate change, and makes you want to act yourself.

70 years from now, nearly half …

70 years from now, nearly half of the urban population could be exposed to high heat stress

By 2100, over 3 billion people worldwide may live in urban areas with high humid heat stress, more than three times the current situation. Planting trees may not be effective in mitigating this.

More routes for trans-Arctic shipping will …

More routes for trans-Arctic shipping will open in the next 50 years

Trans-Arctic shipping will be relatively risky until about 2045, because of fast ice formation and sea ice ridging. But new routes across the Arctic will open in due course, perhaps as early as 2070.

The best way to combat increasing …

The best way to combat increasing river flood risk in Europe? Water storage!

Water storage areas that reduce river flood peaks are economically the most attractive option to adapt the river system to the changing climate, scientists conclude.

How climate change is affecting global …

How climate change is affecting global migration patterns

Migration in response to climate change is not an option for an increasing number of poor people. They lack the financial means to move and are the ‘trapped population’.

Economic damage of wildfires in Southern …

Economic damage of wildfires in Southern Europe is up to €21 billion per season, on average

There is a clear, negative effect of wildfires in Southern Europe on regional economy, an analysis of data over the period 2010-2018 shows. The impact on employment seems to be small, though.

Flood hazard of ice-dammed lakes at …

Flood hazard of ice-dammed lakes at melting glaciers is decreasing

At melting glaciers, lakes are being formed where meltwater gets trapped behind debris or ice dams. Floods caused by outbursts of ice-dammed lakes have become less extreme over the past 120 years.

What is driving future fluvial flood …

What is driving future fluvial flood risk in Europe?

Mainly exposure and to a lesser extent climate change are increasing flood risk by hundreds of percent this century. Measures reducing vulnerability can counterbalance this risk by only 15%.

New: The Geography of Future Water …

New: The Geography of Future Water Challenges

The ‘Geography of Future Water Challenges’, a new book on the many water challenges around the globe, to be launched at the UN Water Conference, is now available online.

Unprecedented fire activity in the Arctic …

Unprecedented fire activity in the Arctic in recent years due to global warming

The summer of 2020 was the warmest in four decades. According to satellite data, burned area was sevenfold larger in 2020 than the 1982–2020 average. The link to climate change is clear.

Mixing signals of different catchments blurs …

Mixing signals of different catchments blurs climate-related trends in river floods

Increased extreme precipitation in recent decades has increased river floods globally. Previous studies failed to detect this because mixing catchments with different flood types blurred the results.

Longer growing seasons will not offset …

Longer growing seasons will not offset the global drop in crop yields

The combination of global changes in crop yields, cropping frequency and cropland area determines the impact of climate change on global agricultural production, and all of them will decrease.

At least half of all glaciers …

At least half of all glaciers will be gone by 2100

Even if global temperatures rise by no more than 1.5°C, around 104,000 glaciers will disappear by 2100. At least half of those will vanish by 2050.

Subsidence coastal cities contributes more to …

Subsidence coastal cities contributes more to relative sea level rise than previously thought

In several coastal cities, land subsidence is much faster than the IPCC reported in its latest assessment, data for 48 coastal cities, representing 20% of the global urban population, shows.

What is causing increased disaster losses, …

What is causing increased disaster losses, societal change or climate change?

Past economic losses by extreme weather events are not due to climate change. But ‘the times they are a changing‘. Today, many events do show a climate change fingerprint in loss and damage.

Coastal flood risk increases much faster …

Coastal flood risk increases much faster than previously thought

The global land area that is below mean sea level increases much faster in the earlier stages of sea level rise than previously thought. This is bad news for poor coastal communities in particular.

Dryer summers and heavier rainfall: a …

Dryer summers and heavier rainfall: a bad combination

Over the last 100 years, the severity of droughts has increased in Europe. Not due to less precipitation, but to higher temperatures that lead to more evaporation by plants and from the soil.

More lightning in the north, less …

More lightning in the north, less in the south

Weather regimes with thunderstorms and lightning shift to the north, increasing lightning frequency at higher latitudes in the summer. More thunderstorms are also expected over the Alps.

The costs of damage of permafrost …

The costs of damage of permafrost thawing in the Arctic will be about $200 billion by mid-century

The thawing of the permafrost in the Arctic is causing damage to the infrastructure and buildings of the Arctic states. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs.

When sea level rise accelerates, so …

When sea level rise accelerates, so will the erosion of rock coast cliffs

Over 50% of global coastlines are rock coasts. Retreat rates of rock coast cliffs will likely accelerate this century, by at least 3–7 times present-day rates at a UK coast, scientists show.

What high-end sea level rise should …

What high-end sea level rise should we plan for? 1.55 m by 2100, scientists conclude

Experts studied all the available information on sea level rise projections and concluded that 1.55 m sea level rise by 2100 is the plausible high-end estimate we should use for adaptation planning.

Health at the mercy of fossil …

Health at the mercy of fossil fuels

Each year the Lancet, one of the world’s leading medical journals, publishes a report on the global status on health and climate change. Health is still at the mercy of fossil fuels, they conclude.

Rewetting our peatlands not only serves …

Rewetting our peatlands not only serves the climate

Drained peatlands make up only 3% of the agricultural land in the European Union but emit 25% of the total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. The advantages of rewetting them are manifold.

Vast majority of people exposed to …

Vast majority of people exposed to flooding are too poor to protect themselves

Without adequate flood protection, nearly one in four of the world’s population has at least 1% chance of getting wet feet, or worse, every year. Most of them live in low-income countries.

Human interventions in rivers outpace threats …

Human interventions in rivers outpace threats from climate change

The impacts of dam building and land-use change on sediment fluxes in rivers outpace the growing threats from climate change, with dramatic consequences for densely populated river deltas.

Insect biodiversity is changing because of …

Insect biodiversity is changing because of agriculture and climate change

Where land is used for high-intensity agriculture, the joint impact of agriculture and climate warming has reduced insect abundance and species richness by 49% and 27%, global observations show.

A flaw in classic approach to …

A flaw in classic approach to flooding: the floods of 2021

The 2021 floods in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands were more than just ‘heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water’, experts conclude. We must adapt a ‘landscape perspective’ to flooding.

Each summer will last about half …

Each summer will last about half a day longer than the previous one

By 2100, compared with 2014, average summer in the Northern Hemisphere will last 20% longer under a moderate, and 50% longer under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Latest projections of future temperatures over …

Latest projections of future temperatures over Europe

Warming will be largest both in northern and southern Europe. In northern Europe, in particular the coldest winters will be less cold. In southern Europe, the hottest summers will be much hotter.

More heat stress for cattle, less …

More heat stress for cattle, less milk and meat for us

Climate change will increase heat stress for cattle. By the end of the century, heat stress could reduce global milk and meat production by between 3.7% and 9.8% of production value in 2005.

Tourism and energy of southern European …

Tourism and energy of southern European islands are vulnerable for climate change

For 2050, economic impacts in terms of GDP losses may be up to 3.8 per cent under a low-end, and up to 7.3 per cent under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Climate extremes have already changed over …

Climate extremes have already changed over Europe

Half of European territory is now experiencing unusually warm temperatures in the summer compared to 50 years ago. Winter precipitation has increased in the North, drought intensity in the South.

Heat exposure outdoor workers already leads …

Heat exposure outdoor workers already leads to productivity loss of 1.7 per cent of GDP

Estimates so far have underestimated global labor loss due to humid heat exposure for outdoor workers. This loss amounts to a global productivity loss of 2.1 trillion USD, 1.7% of global GDP.

Multi-century sea level rise may lead …

Multi-century sea level rise may lead to unprecedented threats to coastal cities

Even the 2 °C limit of the Paris Agreement would lead to a median 4.7 m of global mean sea level rise on the long run and threaten land now home to roughly 10% of the global population.

Frequency of extreme sea levels will …

Frequency of extreme sea levels will increase dramatically in many parts of the world’s coasts

Even if global warming does not exceed the 2 °C limit of the Paris Agreement, the present-day once-a-century extreme sea level will become an annual event along many coastlines by 2100

Future increase of heat stress productivity …

Future increase of heat stress productivity losses relatively low in Europe

The average productivity loss in Europe in a high-end climate change scenario is likely to be less than 1% by 2100, and could be much less as societies adapt.

Trees can cool European cities up …

Trees can cool European cities up to 12 °C on a hot day

The cooling effect of trees is high in cities in Central and Eastern Europe, and on the British Isles, and much less in Southern Europe, where limited soil moisture availability limits transpiration.

Wildfire smoke particles can be deadly, …

Wildfire smoke particles can be deadly, and climate change will increase health risk

Fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometre is a serious health threat because it can enter the lungs. Particles from wildfire smoke are more lethal than other - urban – particles.

Wine quality and global warming: When …

Wine quality and global warming: When will winners become losers?

So far, substantial warming in two of the world’s top red wine regions has increased average wine quality, but a tipping point in the effect of climate change on wine quality may be nearby.

Loss of sea ice in the …

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic: Sad testimony of climate change, good news for the economy

Ship navigation routes are opening across the Arctic. Summer sea ice extent has been declining for half a century. Opportunities for the economy, maybe not so much for local communities.

Intense rainstorms are moving more slowly, …

Intense rainstorms are moving more slowly, causing more floods

Slowly moving rainstorms causing flash floods like those in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands in the summer of 2021, may become up to 14 times more frequent in Europe by 2100.

Adaptation may strongly limit Europe’s economic …

Adaptation may strongly limit Europe’s economic drought impacts with global warming

Annual damage of droughts in Europe is now €9 billion per year. Without adaptation, a 3,5 times increase at 2°C global warming is projected in 2100. With adaptation, the impact is much less.

Sandy coastlines worldwide under threat of …

Sandy coastlines worldwide under threat of erosion

Almost half of the world’s sandy beaches could be gone by the end of the century. A substantial proportion of the threatened sandy shorelines are in densely populated areas.

Is Europe’s infrastructure resilient enough for …

Is Europe’s infrastructure resilient enough for future rainstorms?

Climate change impact on extreme precipitation in Europe calls into question the resilience of the existing infrastructure under more frequent and intense rainstorms in the future.

19% of the world’s population lives …

19% of the world’s population lives on sinking land

Land subsidence is a major contributor to flood risk, threatening 15 of the 20 major coastal cities ranked with the highest flood risk worldwide.

Fingerprint of climate change in recent …

Fingerprint of climate change in recent European floods

Scientists conclude that climate change has increased the likelihood and intensity of flash flooding in Western Europe and will continue to do so in a warming climate.

Weather conditions for wildfires have changed …

Weather conditions for wildfires have changed in Southern Europe

The number of days with adverse fire weather conditions has increased over the last 30 years over the Iberian Peninsula and eastern Balkans. A decrease was observed for Greece, Cyprus, and Turkey.

A European perspective on recent floods …

A European perspective on recent floods – Opinion

Catastrophic flood events may seem highly unlikely but are less unique when you look beyond national borders. In a European perspective, extreme flood events do happen every now and then.

Sea-level rise determines the future of …

Sea-level rise determines the future of our deltas

Global delta land area will decrease if relative sea-level rise exceeds about 5.5 mm per year. 5% of total global delta area may be gone in 2100 under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Drought and heatwave crop losses in …

Drought and heatwave crop losses in Europe tripled over the last five decades

The frequency of extreme weather events in Europe has increased over time. As a result, drought and heatwave crop production losses increased from 2.2% in 1964-1990 to 7.3% in 1991-2015.

In a changing climate, the 100-year …

In a changing climate, the 100-year flood event is a misleading concept

In a changing climate, concepts like the ‘100-year flood event’ are misleading. Return periods of floods are changing. Whether they increase or decrease, depends on climate zones.

Extreme drought threatens the lives of …

Extreme drought threatens the lives of millions of Afghans

Afghanistan faces the lowest level of rainfall in years. Since 2018, drought has displaced a quarter of a million people, and the numbers are rising.

Climate change already increases the number …

Climate change already increases the number of rockfalls in the Alps

Small- to medium-sized rockfalls now occur up to 300 m higher in the Alps than 70 years ago. The number of rockfalls has increased since the 2000s, data since 1945 show.

The benefits and price tag of …

The benefits and price tag of greening European cities

Greening 35% of European urban surfaces would cool these surfaces by between 2.5°C and 6°C, reduce urban runoff by about 17.5%, and save up to 55.8 Mtons carbon dioxide emissions per year.

Heat-related mortality is on the rise …

Heat-related mortality is on the rise in Europe, while cold-related mortality is falling

The increase in the number of people in Europe dying from high temperatures will start to exceed the reduction of the number of people dying from cold spells in the second half of this century.

More and more people die from …

More and more people die from heat, fewer and fewer from cold spells

Globally, in the last two decades, the decrease of the annual number of cold-related deaths exceeded the increased of heat-related deaths, leading to a net reduction in the overall death ratio.

Climate change is already increasing health …

Climate change is already increasing health risks globally

It is likely that climate change has already increased the health risks of heat stress, air quality and a number of diseases, globally, a recent literature survey and expert judgment has shown.

The ‘invisible risk’ of heatwaves in …

The ‘invisible risk’ of heatwaves in the United Kingdom

Heatwaves affect far more sectors than just public health. In the United Kingdom, these risks are ‘invisible’ to policy and research, scientists conclude.

River flood risk of Europe’s road …

River flood risk of Europe’s road network highest in Germany, France and Italy

The current expected annual direct damage from large river floods to road infrastructure in Europe is about € 230 million per year. Risk hotspots are parts of Germany, France, Italy, and Scandinavia.

What may happen to forestry and …

What may happen to forestry and timber markets beyond 2100?

Global forest area is likely to increase this century, but shrink back towards its present level by 2200. Forest productivity and timber supply will continue to increase through 2200, however.

Update 'Navigating rivers and deltas towards …

Update 'Navigating rivers and deltas towards a sustainable future'

An update of the ‘River Basin Delta Tool’ is now online. The tool, first launched on the Climate Adaptation Summit 2021, shows effects of interventions on rivers and deltas and how to bend the trend.

The future of landslides in the …

The future of landslides in the Pyrenees

A study on landslides in the French Central Pyrenees shows that these hazards may occur up to 4 times as often by the end of the century, under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Extreme European heatwaves of 2019 now …

Extreme European heatwaves of 2019 now several times more likely due to climate change

Without climate change, the heatwave of July 2019 in France and the Netherlands, with temperatures over 40 °C, would have been more than 10 times less likely, scientists conclude.

The future of food from the …

The future of food from the sea may look good

The sea can contribute much more to sustainable food production than is currently the case: 12-25 per cent of the increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050.

Escalating summer heat exposure will increase …

Escalating summer heat exposure will increase loss in labour productivity

By 2100, many European workers will very likely be affected by heat stress. In Southern Europe, 15-60 per cent of the working hours may be lost under a high-end scenario of climate change.

Investment into research must double to …

Investment into research must double to halt climate and food crises by 2030, warns CGIAR

World’s largest agricultural research partnership seeks to increase funding to $2 billion annually to support global innovation in the pandemic recovery.

Scandinavian winters are getting shorter at …

Scandinavian winters are getting shorter at a rapid pace

Northern Europe is warming much faster than the global mean. By mid-century, summers will last about a month longer here, and winters will become one to two months shorter, model projections show.

The number of rivers that may …

The number of rivers that may flood at the same time is changing

The probability of multiple rivers flooding at the same time in Europe is changing. This often disregarded aspect is highly relevant for the capacities of disaster recovery and insurance companies.

Climate change already affects airplane take-offs, …

Climate change already affects airplane take-offs, study for Greek airports shows

Higher air temperature means lower air pressure and a longer distance to take off. At Greek airports this distance has increased over the last decades by a few metres per year.

Climate change affects all economies, through …

Climate change affects all economies, through foreign trade

Climate change negatively affects the global economy, both directly in world regions and transnationally through foreign trade channels. Germany is relatively well off.

Developed countries require larger climate anomalies …

Developed countries require larger climate anomalies for a disaster to unfold

Climate anomalies, in terms of extreme weather events, may lead to disasters. A country’s vulnerability and exposure determines how large these anomalies have to be for a disaster to unfold.

USA and EU responsible for 69 …

USA and EU responsible for 69 per cent of climate breakdown, new study shows

The consequences of economic development of high-income countries are passed on to low-income countries. The climate debts the first ones owe to the latter ones have been quantified.

Ocean acidification affects our health in …

Ocean acidification affects our health in many ways

The oceans acidify and this affects our health in many ways. Changes include the quantity and quality of seafood, pollutants accumulating in human tissue, and natural toxins released in the air.

How much will Europe’s sandy beaches …

How much will Europe’s sandy beaches erode when sea level rises?

As a result of sea level rise, the shorelines of sandy beaches in Europe may ‘potentially’ retreat by tens to a few hundred metres between now and 2100, scientists conclude.

For Europe’s high value coastal conurbations …

For Europe’s high value coastal conurbations extra flood protection pays off

The consequences for Europe of doing nothing to the increase of extreme sea levels are hundreds of billions of Euros damage per year by 2100. Extra cost-effective protection reduces this risk by 95%.

Compound flooding in northwestern Europe: river …

Compound flooding in northwestern Europe: river and coastal floods are sometimes linked

Compound floods, simultaneous high water levels at the coast and in nearby rivers, have been relatively strong and frequent at times in parts of northwestern Europe. It’s not clear why.

Multiyear droughts on the rise in …

Multiyear droughts on the rise in European river catchments

For a number of rivers, discharge regime is shifting from snowmelt to rainfall-dominated. The number of European regions affected by multiyear drought is expected to increase as a result.

Risk of food production failures in …

Risk of food production failures in different global breadbaskets at the same time has increased

Global breadbaskets are the main regions for food production. The probability of multiple breadbasket failures at the same time has increased substantially for wheat, maize, and soybean.

Climate change is not always the …

Climate change is not always the main driver of river discharge changes

Annual discharge of many European rivers has changed, but not necessarily due to climate change. In Spain, for instance, increases in irrigated areas and afforestation have played a major role.

Ten per cent of global mean …

Ten per cent of global mean sea level rise is water lost from land

It's not just ice melt from mountain glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica, and ocean warming that leads to sea level rise. A large contribution is water that fresh water reserves on land have lost.

Global sea level rise is accelerating …

Global sea level rise is accelerating by an extra mm per decade

Between 1991 and 2019 sea level rise has accelerated. The rate of sea level rise is now 1 mm per decade faster than 10 years ago.

Health adaptation to climate change: a …

Health adaptation to climate change: a global assessment

Global health adaptation to climate change is moving in a positive direction, but at a relatively slow pace. Countries are spending more on health adaptation, though.

Climate-driven shocks to agriculture spur emigration …

Climate-driven shocks to agriculture spur emigration from poor countries

In poor countries, over the period 1960 to 2010, climate-driven reduction in agricultural productivity of 1% from its decennial trend has induced an increase in the emigration rate of about 4.5%.

Urbanization increases heat stress urban dwellers, …

Urbanization increases heat stress urban dwellers, on top of global warming

The extra warming in 2050 due to urban expansion will be as significant as, or even stronger than, that caused by global warming, increasing extreme heat risk for billions of urban dwellers.

Experts call for different approach to …

Experts call for different approach to wildfire management in Mediterranean-type regions

According to a group of experts from all continents it is a political mistake to keep on increasing fire suppression expenditure, while disregarding mitigation and adaptation.

Primary production plants and trees increases …

Primary production plants and trees increases despite negative impacts more extreme droughts

For future global primary production, the positive impacts of higher CO2 concentrations and higher temperature at high latitudes dominate over the negative impacts of more extreme droughts.

Phytoplankton blooms on lakes are increasing …

Phytoplankton blooms on lakes are increasing since the 1980s

A widespread global increase in intense lake phytoplankton blooms since the 1980s suggests that lake warming may counteract management efforts to reduce blooms by reducing nutrient loads.

Europe’s heat waves of 2018 highly …

Europe’s heat waves of 2018 highly unlikely without human-caused warming

Recent publications show that Europe’s summer of 2018 was exceptionally warm, with all-time temperature records set across the continent, including Scandinavia, central Europe, and the British Isles.

The loss of glaciers creates opportunities …

The loss of glaciers creates opportunities for water storage and hydropower

When glaciers shrink or disappear, the emerging ice-free basins provide opportunities for building dams to store water and generate electricity through hydropower.

The ‘perfect storm’ of climate change …

The ‘perfect storm’ of climate change impacts on both agriculture and marine fisheries

Simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries will affect tropical countries the most. They are most dependent on these food sectors but have the lowest capacity to adapt.

Thawing Arctic permafrost may have unexpected …

Thawing Arctic permafrost may have unexpected and far-reaching impacts

When permafrost thaws deeper into the soil, soil moisture can change rapidly. The wide range of effects includes less stable infrastructure, changing flood risk, and higher wildfire risk.

Peatlands, a growing net source of …

Peatlands, a growing net source of greenhouse gasses since 1960

Drainage of peatlands has transformed large areas from former sinks into net sources of greenhouse gasses. Most of these peatlands need to be rehabilitated to stop global warming at +2 °C.

Annual maximum river flow is changing …

Annual maximum river flow is changing across Europe, probably due to climate change

River discharge observations across Europe for the period 1960-2010 show that annual maximum peak flow has increased in northwestern Europe, and decreased in southern and eastern Europe.

Global vulnerability to sea-level rise and …

Global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding strongly underestimated

The elevation of densely populated coastal zones appears to be much lower than has been assumed so far. The global impacts of sea-level rise will likely be far greater than studies so far have shown.

Heat stress risk in Southern Europe …

Heat stress risk in Southern Europe is increasing

The time per year that the inhabitants of Athens are exposed to conditions of extreme heat stress has increased since 1960. Extreme heat stress now occurs both earlier and later in the year.

Businesses on their journey to sustainability: …

Businesses on their journey to sustainability: Notes from Transform 2019

How can businesses transform to a circular economy, reduce their carbon footprints, and adapt to climate change? A summary of valuable experiences of the speakers at this summit on sustainability.

Climate change doesn’t have to result …

Climate change doesn’t have to result in wheat yield losses in southern Europe

Negative effects of climate change on wheat yields can be avoided by using earlier flowering cultivars. Advanced grain filling reduces the risk of exposure to enhanced drought and heat stresses.

Good news: Global vulnerability to climate-related …

Good news: Global vulnerability to climate-related hazards is decreasing, so far.

Even though the number of hazards and the number of people exposed to them has increased, hazard vulnerability has dropped strongly. Clearly, investing in protection and resilience pays off.

The pace of smashing extreme temperature …

The pace of smashing extreme temperature records is increasing

By the end of this century, far more temperature records will be set under a high-end than under a low-end scenario of climate change, and far more of these records will be ‘smashing’.

So far, intertidal flats in the …

So far, intertidal flats in the Wadden Sea can easily keep up with sea-level rise

In the period 1998 to 2016, the intertidal flats in the German Wadden Sea have accreted with rates ranging from 4 to 22 mm/year, strongly exceeding the observed recent mean sea-level rise.

Observed loss of carbon in thawing …

Observed loss of carbon in thawing Alaskan permafrost faster than previously thought

Measurements of thawing permafrost in Alaska showed a loss of soil carbon in the upper 55 cm of 5.4% per year, indicating much faster release of carbon dioxide and methane than previously thought.

Does climate change already affect armed …

Does climate change already affect armed conflicts?

According to experienced climate and conflict experts, the role of climate in conflicts to date is small compared to other drivers of conflict. Climate change will amplify conflict risk, however.

Temperature and precipitation changes seem to …

Temperature and precipitation changes seem to trigger slope destabilization in the Alps

A high occurrence of positive temperature anomalies in the lead-up of slope failures in the Italian Alps supports the hypothesis that climate warming is destabilizing slopes at high-elevation sites.

Across Europe, cold extremes are warming …

Across Europe, cold extremes are warming more rapidly than hot extremes

Where hot extremes have increased by 0.33 °C per decade from 1950 to 2018, the trend for cold extremes is 0.49 °C per decade. A 50% difference!

The Hottest August London Premiere

The Hottest August London Premiere

Screening on the 6th September in London: This film discusses concerns of New York citizens about the future with the hot August weather as a starting point.

Damage and fatalities extreme weather events …

Damage and fatalities extreme weather events in Europe on the rise

Weather disasters have increased in number and intensity in recent decades. Damage caused by extreme weather events has been on the rise. In terms of casualties the 2003 and 2010 heat waves stand out.

Marine heat waves in the Mediterranean …

Marine heat waves in the Mediterranean Sea: still an exception, but the “new normal” in a few decades

Unprecedented mass mortality events, reported in previous summers and resulting from prolonged periods of high sea surface temperatures, seem to become the new standard already by 2050.

Climate change will affect biodiversity, regardless …

Climate change will affect biodiversity, regardless of the Paris Agreement

Biodiversity of plants and animals on earth will change. At 2 °C global warming, terrestrial ecosystems could lose on average 14% of their current local species, and 22% at 4 °C.

Heat will be a much larger …

Heat will be a much larger health threat in Europe’s near future

Both heat stress and ozone increase mortality, and both are affected by climate change. While the total health burden of ozone will decrease by 2050, heat-related mortality will strongly increase.

Global warming will increase damage of …

Global warming will increase damage of river flooding to European railways

River flood risk to European railways, €581 million per year in recent decades, could increase substantially: by up to 310% under a 3 °C warming scenario, according to recent estimates.

Global warming may increase destructive potential …

Global warming may increase destructive potential of hurricanes in the Mediterranean

When the Mediterranean Sea warms up, hurricanes in the area are likely to become more vigorous. Their winds will be stronger, and they will lead to more intense precipitation, increasing flood risk.

Key role of human factors in …

Key role of human factors in Mediterranean fire regimes

Trends in burnt area in Portugal and Spain illustrate the complicated relationship between population and fire incidence. Rural abandonment means fewer fires but more fuel for extreme events.

Climate extremes have a strong impact …

Climate extremes have a strong impact on global agricultural yields

Almost half of the variability in global maize and spring wheat yields can be explained by climate variability and climate extremes during the growing season.

Extreme coastal water levels much higher …

Extreme coastal water levels much higher due to combination of storm
 surge and waves

The probability of facing a 1 in 100‐year event is more than doubled in 30% of the global coastlines when accounting for the dependence between storm surges and waves.

Projections indicate: Ocean biomass declines 5 …

Projections indicate: Ocean biomass declines 5 to 17 per cent by 2100 due to global warming

Global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change from the year 1970 to 2100, on average with 5% for every 1 °C of global warming. Declines are largest at the tropics.

Man-made climate change has increased droughts …

Man-made climate change has increased droughts for already 100 years

Human activities affect the worldwide risk of droughts since the beginning of the twentieth century, according to an analysis of observations, climate reconstructions and tree ring data.

Sea level rise in 2100 could …

Sea level rise in 2100 could exceed 2 m, experts conclude

The experts find it plausible that sea level rise could exceed 2 m by 2100 under the business as usual scenario, more than twice the upper value put forward by the IPCC in 2014.

Marine heat waves threaten global biodiversity …

Marine heat waves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services

The global ocean has warmed substantially over the past century. But that’s not all. Discrete periods of extreme regional warming, called ‘marine heat waves’, have increased in frequency.

Droughts in the soil increase much …

Droughts in the soil increase much less than droughts at the earth surface

Meteorological droughts will occur more often and last longer. The increase of frequency and duration of droughts in the soil root zone will be much less, a global study shows.

Currently, melting glaciers contribute almost 30 …

Currently, melting glaciers contribute almost 30 per cent to observed sea level rise

Total ice volume of the world’s glaciers equals 0.4 metres of potential sea level rise. Glacier ice loss over the period 1961 to 2016 contributed about 27 millimetres to global mean sea level rise.

Climate change doesn’t have to increase …

Climate change doesn’t have to increase the challenge of feeding the planet

Global food insecurity doesn’t have to increase as a result of climate change. Crop yield losses can be small up to the 2050s, provided the right adaptation measures are implemented.

European capitals ranked by exposure to …

European capitals ranked by exposure to heat waves: Valletta at the top, Amsterdam at the bottom

In 2050, very severe heat waves are most likely in Valletta (Malta), Madrid, Rome and Sofia. By then, the probability of an extreme heat wave to occur is relatively low only in Amsterdam.

Are the world’s sandy shorelines eroding? …

Are the world’s sandy shorelines eroding? Not according to the latest data!

In 1985, it was estimated that 70% of the world’s sandy shorelines were eroding. A new assessment, based on 33 years of satellite images, paints quite a different picture.

It may take several decades for …

It may take several decades for rewetted agricultural peat soils to show climatic benefits

Rewetting peat soils increases both the accumulation of CO2 and the emission of CH4, a much stronger but short-lived greenhouse gas. It takes time for CO2 storage to dominate over the CH4 effect.

When will wildfires show the fingerprint …

When will wildfires show the fingerprint of global warming?

Wildfires will occur more frequent and will become more severe as a result of global warming. How do we detect the impact of global warming, knowing that many other factors play a role as well?

Strong impact of warming permafrost on …

Strong impact of warming permafrost on Russia’s buildings and infrastructure

By mid-century, little over 100 billion USD of buildings, structures and infrastructure in Russia’s permafrost regions will be negatively affected by permafrost changes, a recent assessment shows.

Alpine rivers may run dry in …

Alpine rivers may run dry in future summers because less snow was stored in the winter

With global warming more precipitation in the mountains will fall as rain. Snow storage in the winter will decrease, reducing low river flow and fresh water availability in the summer.

New: The geography of future water …

New: The geography of future water challenges online in infographics!

Last year, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency published an assessment of the world’s water challenges. A web-based storyboard of this assessment is now available online.

Floods in China will affect the …

Floods in China will affect the United States far more than the European Union

In the next two decades, river flood risk will increase particularly in China. Losses in China affect other countries as well, through supply chains and trade. The EU is well adjusted for this.

When the soil dries out, Europe’s …

When the soil dries out, Europe’s heat waves will become more extreme than previously thought

Evaporation cools the earth surface and hence soil moisture is a constraint on heat wave temperatures. Depletion of soil moisture may strongly amplify future heat waves, like the one of 2010.

Will drought events become more frequent …

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

Current drought trends will grow stronger this century. Drought hotspots in future decades are the Mediterranean, northern and northeastern Scandinavia, southern England, and western Europe.

From 1.5°C to 2°C global warming …

From 1.5°C to 2°C global warming nearly doubles the impact of river floods on human lives and economy

Most future projections of river flooding focus on vulnerability or exposure, and in direct economic damage. A recent study also presents estimates on numbers of casualties and welfare loss.

Reduced heat exposure and mortality by …

Reduced heat exposure and mortality by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

The number of people in Europe exposed to temperatures above the historical record in any summer would increase to 11% of the population in a 1.5 °C warmer world and to 20% in a 2 °C warmer world.

Advertisement – Conference ICE Coastal Management …

Advertisement – Conference ICE Coastal Management 2019

Institution of Civil Engineers’ ninth Coastal Management conference will be held in La Rochelle (France) on 24 - 26 September 2019

Extreme sea levels, not socioeconomic changes, …

Extreme sea levels, not socioeconomic changes, are the main driver of Europe’s future coastal flood risk

If we do not upgrade our flood protection standards, Europe’s coastal flood risk may increase up to 75 - 770 times the current risk. Mainly because extreme sea levels are changing.

For ice-free summers in the Arctic …

For ice-free summers in the Arctic 1.5 or 2 °C global warming makes a huge difference

The likelihood of any September to be completely ice-free by the end of this century at 2 °C global warming is 35%, a recent study shows. If warming is limited to 1.5 °C, this is only a few percent.

The future of our coastal wetlands …

The future of our coastal wetlands may not be that dramatic

Global-scale projections suggest that between 20% and 90% of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost by 2100. Too dramatic, scientists argue in a recent publication in Nature.

Winter snow depths in Europe are …

Winter snow depths in Europe are decreasing, except for the coldest regions

Mean and maximum winter snow depths are decreasing over Europe except for the coldest regions. Over the period 1951-2017 this decrease was little over 10% per decade.

New perspectives on the global distribution …

New perspectives on the global distribution of climate risk. The Netherlands stands out!

Due to transnational impacts, countries are far more vulnerable than direct impacts suggest. Exposure to climate change impacts in a globalised world turns out bad for The Netherlands.

Is 1.5°C better or worse than …

Is 1.5°C better or worse than 2°C warming in terms of agricultural impacts? We don’t know!

Scientists are unable to distinguish agricultural impacts occurring with 1.5°C warming from those with 2°C warming. The uncertainties in the impacts of climate, CO2 and trade are simply too large.

Do green roofs mitigate stormwater runoff …

Do green roofs mitigate stormwater runoff in urban areas?

Green roofs can be a good option to reduce stormwater runoff to the urban drainage networks. They may not be that effective for long-lasting, extreme rainfall events, however.

After 2100, decomposition of peatlands will …

After 2100, decomposition of peatlands will strengthen climate change

Good news: until 2100, more carbon will be stored in peatlands globally. Bad news: this will not persist in time. After 2100, carbon loss from peatlands will strengthen climate change.

Without global warming, current crop yields …

Without global warming, current crop yields would have been higher

Technological improvements have increased crop yields. Climate change, however, has slowed down the increasing yield trends compared to the yields we would have had without global warming.

What are the climate change impacts …

What are the climate change impacts European Road Authorities have to adapt to?

All over Europe, climate change will increase extreme weather impacts on the roads. This increase will accelerate towards the end of this century. As a result, maintenance needs to be adapted.

Expansion of biofuel crops may be …

Expansion of biofuel crops may be more disruptive to food production than climate change itself

+1.5° to +2°C global warming, the Paris targets, will impact crop yields and food prices. The impact of a mitigation policy where croplands are being used for bioenergy crops may be stronger, however.

Sustainable water consumption for irrigation can …

Sustainable water consumption for irrigation can feed an additional 2.8 billion people

Food security and environmental goals can be achieved in tandem. A major increase of global food production is possible by expanding irrigation sustainably into currently cultivated areas.

Heat-related mortality: warmer regions benefit the …

Heat-related mortality: warmer regions benefit the most from limiting global warming

If we succeed in limiting global warming to well below 2 °C, we may prevent large increases in heat-related mortality across the globe.

Global implications of 1.5 °C and …

Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows

If we succeed in stabilizing global warming at 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C, the frequency of the current 1-in-100 year flow shifts to once in 70-90 years or once in 50 years, respectively, in most of the world.

Barriers and opportunities in adapting our …

Barriers and opportunities in adapting our cultural heritage to climate change risks

Proactive adaptation is an opportunity to effectively adapt our cultural heritage to climate change risks. One of the barriers, however, is how to deal with the uncertainties of things to come.

If global warming exceeds 1.5°C, the …

If global warming exceeds 1.5°C, the impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity will be substantial

We can learn from the past to see what lies ahead. Vegetation changes since the last ice age show that vegetation composition and structure is at substantial risk of major changes in the near future.

Global warming will increase wheat, rice …

Global warming will increase wheat, rice and maize crop losses to insect pests

Crop yield losses to insect pests will increase globally with rising temperatures. Compared with the past, these losses increase by tens of percent for wheat, rice and maize crop at 2°C global warming

Main challenge for Mediterranean region: to …

Main challenge for Mediterranean region: to increase food production without depleting freshwater resources

Integrated strategies are needed to increase food production, focusing on both higher irrigation efficiency and higher crop yields of rain-fed cropland, whilst preserving valuable water resources.

On a global scale, landslide hazard …

On a global scale, landslide hazard doesn't seem to be increasing due to climate change

Landslides are responsible for ca. 14% of all casualties from natural hazards, on a global scale. Human activities may be more detrimental to future landslide incidence than climate change.

Tenfold reduction of global flood risk: …

Tenfold reduction of global flood risk: it pays of to raise the dikes when sea level rises

What will be the impact of global warming on coastal flood risk if we do succeed in restricting warming at 2°C, following the Paris Agreement? Still high, unless we keep on raising the dikes.

Ranking the world on climate security: …

Ranking the world on climate security: European countries at the top

A country’s national security may be negatively affected by climate change. This impact was expressed quantitatively. It turns out that climate security is highest in Europe, with Finland as number 1.

Wind power output increases in northern …

Wind power output increases in northern Europe and decreases in the South

Expected changes in wind energy potential show a north-south division in Europe. In the next 30 years, wind power output will increase by 4%-8% in the North, and decrease up to 6%-12% in the South.

What will our summers look like …

What will our summers look like if we do reach the targets of the Paris Agreement?

The 10% most extreme summer maximum temperatures in a 2°C warmer world cannot be reached when global warming is restricted at 1.5°C. This corresponds to the most extreme and severe heat waves.

The early onset of Europe’s mega …

The early onset of Europe’s mega heat wave of 2017, a sign of things to come?

Europe’s summer season starts earlier, by 4 days per decade. As a result, mega heat waves may occur unusually early in the year when compared to the historical record. This was the case in 2017.

Warmest night in The Netherlands so …

Warmest night in The Netherlands so far. Extreme summer temperatures are rising - an update

On Friday 27 July 2018, night temperature in the Netherlands did not drop below 23.6 °C. The hottest night ever measured. An update of climate change and hot cities.

Even if we reach the Paris …

Even if we reach the Paris Agreement targets, droughts will still strongly increase

At 1.5 to 2°C global warming, long-term droughts will happen 5 to 10 times more frequent in large parts of the world. This will affect two thirds of the world population.

“North Sea Power Hub” plan to …

“North Sea Power Hub” plan to create an artificial island for large scale wind power production

What sounds like a project from the future, the upcoming North Sea Wind Power Hub is an ambitious plan that has the goal of building a wind farm on an island right in the middle of the North Sea.

Heat waves: the number one natural …

Heat waves: the number one natural hazard – an update

In the midst of summer in Europe, we present an update of an overview posted on the ClimateChangePost in 2016. We included the results of scientific studies published in the last two years.

Dry, hot and windy weather over …

Dry, hot and windy weather over northern Europe: beware of wildfires!

Current weather conditions over northern Europe are typically the conditions for wildfires to occur. Our longread articles of 2016 on Europe’s wildfire risk are as current as they were two years ago.

Changing drought conditions are linked to …

Changing drought conditions are linked to extreme wildfire events in the northern Mediterranean

Drought conditions in the northern Mediterranean are changing, leading to fire weather conditions that have not been explored before. As a result, the frequency of extreme wildfires is increasing.

Changing late spring frost impacts will …

Changing late spring frost impacts will reshape the distribution of grapevine varieties in Europe

Grapes are vulnerable for frost events at bud break. Frost risk will decrease in western regions and increase in central Europe. This will reshape the distribution of grapevine varieties in Europe.

Reduction European power generation under 1.5°C, …

Reduction European power generation under 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C warming

Climate change will negatively affect power generation in European countries regardless of the level of global warming. The impacts will be stronger for southern than for northern Europe.

Increasing heat stress will strongly reduce …

Increasing heat stress will strongly reduce labour productivity worldwide

Increasing heat levels as a result of climate change will substantially reduce labour productivity. Tropical and sub-tropical areas will be particularly affected.

Paris Agreement may have a strong …

Paris Agreement may have a strong impact on future extreme heat waves

An increase from 1.5 °C to 2 °C global warming already doubles the frequency of extreme heat waves over most of the globe and strongly increases the number of people affected.

Europe’s road and rail transport more …

Europe’s road and rail transport more often exposed to landslides this century

The number of heavy precipitation events that can trigger landslides in central Europe will increase this century, up to 14 additional events per year in 2100

New: The geography of future water …

New: The geography of future water challenges

The geography of future water challenges shows the global water-related challenges of tomorrow, illustrated by a large number of well-designed maps and infographics. Free download.

Mitigating global warming can reduce strong …

Mitigating global warming can reduce strong increase record-breaking summer temperatures by 50%

On a global basis, moderate climate mitigation can reduce the probability that a summer in 2070 exceeds the historical record temperature of the past 100 years from 80% to 41%.

Different ways to reach the Paris …

Different ways to reach the Paris Agreement goals, different impacts for coastal management

The goals of the Paris Agreement can be reached along various trajectories of global warming, each leading to different rates of sea level rise and different impacts for coastal management.

Future heat waves, droughts and floods …

Future heat waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities

More frequent and hotter heat waves in cities in southern and central Europe, more droughts in the south and more river flooding in the cities of north-western Europe, a recent assessment shows.

Press release: The geography of future …

Press release: The geography of future water challenges

The geography of future water challenges, a global hotspot analysis of water and climate challenges carried out by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, will be presented on 19 April 2018

More people exposed to heat waves: …

More people exposed to heat waves: global warming versus population growth

More people will be exposed to heat-related extremes, due to both global warming and population growth. The impact of climate change dominates over population growth, a recent study has shown.

Shift in boreal forest tree species …

Shift in boreal forest tree species urgently needed due to climate change

A new strategy is urgently needed for boreal forests focused on the replacement of needle-leaved tree species by broad-leaved species. This would reduce fire risk and cool the boreal zone.

Future affordability and coverage climate-risk insurance …

Future affordability and coverage climate-risk insurance calls for more resilience

Rising climate-related risks such as from floods and windstorms threaten affordability and coverage availability for society at large. Continuous efforts are needed to address underlying risks.

Annual damage to Europe’s critical infrastructure …

Annual damage to Europe’s critical infrastructure may increase 10-fold this century

Infrastructure that ensures Europeans’ health, wealth and security will be affected by climate change. Annual damage may increase 10-fold this century, especially due to droughts and heat waves.

In the near future twice as …

In the near future twice as many heat waves over Central Europe

In Central Europe heat waves will probably occur twice as often in the coming decades compared with previous decades. For the end of this century 2-4 heat waves are expected per summer.

Lower future river flood peaks in …

Lower future river flood peaks in Northern and Southern Europe, for different reasons

Both in Southern and in Northern Europe river flood peaks will decrease. In the South as a result of a decrease in total annual precipitation, in the North due to less snowmelt.

The number of people dying from …

The number of people dying from storm surge floods is decreasing

Efforts to reduce coastal flood risk have been successful: since 1900 the occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single coastal flood events has decreased over time.

The combination of hot and humid …

The combination of hot and humid weather may threaten the lives of many people by 2080

Exposure to extreme hot and humid conditions will rapidly increase throughout the 21st century. Especially in the tropics and mid-latitudes, containing half of the world’s future population.

Rate of sea level rise is …

Rate of sea level rise is accelerating, as predicted

The rate of global mean sea level rise is accelerating: from 1.1 mm/year in the period 1901-1990 to more than 3 mm/year in the last decade. For a large part due to thermal expansion of the oceans.

Europe will use more energy for …

Europe will use more energy for cooling than can be saved with heating

In Europe, areas with less heating will outweigh areas that need more cooling. Energy demand will increase, however, due to the variation across Europe of future population growth and decline.

More often, flights will be bumpy …

More often, flights will be bumpy due to turbulence increase under climate 
change

Clear-air turbulence accounts for 24% of weather-related accidents. The volume of this turbulence may double in 50 years over North America, the North Pacific, and Europe under climate change.

Sea level rise and storm surges, …

Sea level rise and storm surges, a complicated relationship

Future coastal flood risk depends on the combined effect of sea level rise and storm surges, along with the effects of tides, waves and land subsidence. How this turns out is a complicated story.

No evidence so far of more …

No evidence so far of more major river floods due to climate change

Compelling evidence that the number of major river floods is increasing at a global scale is lacking. Generalizations about climate-driven changes in floods based upon previous studies are ungrounded.

Climate change is amplifying Europe’s contrast …

Climate change is amplifying Europe’s contrast of drying south and wetting north

State-of-the-art climate models suggest anthropogenic climate change is amplifying Europe’s north-south contrast of available fresh water resources. Water scarcity will increase in Mediterranean.

A future on fire

A future on fire

Large and uncontrolled wildfires seem to have become the ‘new normal’ as some politicians call it. Climate change is one of the drivers, science has shown, but it’s not the only one.

Ambitious climate policies are needed to …

Ambitious climate policies are needed to avoid fast sea level rise

If we do not succeed in mitigating global warming, sea level may rise up to 2 m in 2100. Ambitious climate policies are needed to avoid the most severe impacts from rising sea levels around the globe.

Europe’s wine production will move north …

Europe’s wine production will move north this century, but not to Scotland

Wine grape production in Scotland under high-end climate change remains implausible on a commercial scale at the end of this century. It simply rains too much.

Cultivated peat soils lead to land …

Cultivated peat soils lead to land subsidence and emit greenhouse gases. How can we avoid this?

Peat soils are responsible for a significant portion of the anthropogenic CO2 and N2O emissions. Besides, drained organic soils subside due to compaction, shrinkage, erosion and oxidation.

Technology may counterbalance negative impacts of …

Technology may counterbalance negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields in Western Europe

Climate change will negatively affect cereal yields in Western Europe, a study for France has shown. Still, yields are projected to increase, thank to technological improvements in agriculture.

When sea level rise accelerates, inland …

When sea level rise accelerates, inland migration may not be that easy

Recently, scientists showed that sea level might rise much faster than projected by the IPCC in its latest assessment report. What if they are correct, and large-scale inland migration takes place?

What if the past is the …

What if the past is the key to the future? We may start losing coastal deltas 50 years from now

Sea level rise slow down 7500 years ago started delta formation globally. What if the past is a key to the future? Will accelerating sea level rise this century be a tipping point of delta collapse?

European heat waves like in the …

European heat waves like in the 1950s: what if climate hadn’t changed?

If Europe’s climate hadn’t changed since the 1950s, the number of hot days with maximum temperature over 35 °C would have been 25-50% less.

Warmer water due to climate change …

Warmer water due to climate change may lead to more algal blooms, or less

Lake warming due to climate change makes algae-poor lakes get poorer and algae-rich lakes get richer. Tailor-made management is needed to prevent negative consequences for ecology and society.

Ground settlement due to melting permafrost …

Ground settlement due to melting permafrost will affect a large part of the Northern Hemisphere

Under 2°C global warming the permafrost extent of the Northern Hemisphere will decrease by about 25%. Ground will settle owing to permafrost thaw, 4-15 cm on average, but up to several metres locally.

In 2013 Dutch scientists already saw …

In 2013 Dutch scientists already saw Ophelia as a realistic scenario due to global warming

More hurricanes to hit Western Europe. Ireland and the UK are hit by Ophelia, the worst cyclone to hit this part of Europe in 50 years. A scenario already projected by Dutch scientists in 2013.

Deadliest wildfires in California ever: lessons …

Deadliest wildfires in California ever: lessons to be learned from southern Europe

“Large wildfires, out of control according to the media, rage across California. Again!” No, this is not the start of a recent article; it’s the start of an article we’ve published last year.

The smaller the Mediterranean islands, the …

The smaller the Mediterranean islands, the more vulnerable their biodiversity for climate change

Plant species on Mediterranean islands can migrate into more favourable ecological niches when climate changes. Many islands may be too small, however, and certain species may not survive.

Mackerel migrating to the north: the …

Mackerel migrating to the north: the first climate change related conflict in European politics?

After 2007 mackerel became more abundant in northern Atlantic waters. This triggered a conflict over fishing quotas between the European Union (EU), Norway, Iceland, and the Faroe Islands.

How to protect office-workers from future …

How to protect office-workers from future heat stress?

In an urban office building without active cooling, the number of lost working hours may quadruple between now and 2100. Effective adaptation measures may reduce this up to 90%.

Changing climate shifts timing of European …

Changing climate shifts timing of European river floods

The seasonal timing of river floods across Europe has been changing since 1960. Floods now occur earlier in northeastern and western Europe, and later around the North Sea and Mediterranean coast.

Heat waves and their effect on …

Heat waves and their effect on human mortality in Europe

On average 28,000 people die every year in 27 European countries due to heat waves. 0.61% of all mortality in the examined 27 countries is excess mortality caused by heat waves.

Just a few cm of sea-level …

Just a few cm of sea-level rise may double the frequency of coastal flooding

Only 5-10 cm of sea-level rise may more than double the frequency of coastal flooding in the Tropics as early as 2030. Some of the largest cities in the world may face a dire future.

Plants start to flower much earlier …

Plants start to flower much earlier in spring thanks to global warming

Plants respond to global warming by advancing their onset of flowering in spring. This advancement is faster in the north of Europe and in the mountains than in the south.

Global warming will increase cost of …

Global warming will increase cost of avoiding heat-related illness outdoor workers

Heat-related illness and the economic cost of avoiding it is a serious issue that should be kept in mind when discussing the benefits and economic cost of climate change mitigation.

Drought risk increases substantially in large …

Drought risk increases substantially in large parts of the world, even if we do reach the goals of the Paris agreement

Even under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets of the Paris agreement, drought risk increases significantly in the Mediterranean, central Europe, the Amazon, and southern Africa.

The warmer Europe gets, the more …

The warmer Europe gets, the more precipitation, runoff and river discharge change

In a warmer world, hydrological impacts of climate change are more intense. Heavy rainfall and highest river flows further increase, lowest flows decrease. In addition, these changes affect wider area

Latest estimate of current rate of …

Latest estimate of current rate of global sea level rise: 3.5 mm per year

The rate of global mean sea level rise has increased over the last two decades, mainly due to increased land ice loss from Greenland. Over the period 2004-2015 sea level rose about 3.5 mm per year.

Europe’s infrastructure more often damaged by …

Europe’s infrastructure more often damaged by heavy precipitation

Heavy precipitation events are likely to become more frequent and intense, and will affect wider areas. Damage to Europe’s infrastructure will occur more often.

50 times more weather-related deaths in …

50 times more weather-related deaths in 2100, unless we take action

The number of deaths as a result of weather-related disasters is expected to increase by roughly 50 times between now and 2100, if we do not take appropriate measures. Heat waves are the most lethal.

Climate change and marine fisheries: European …

Climate change and marine fisheries: European countries least vulnerable on a global scale

Countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change on marine fisheries are primarily small island states in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean, and countries along the Western and Eastern coasts

What drives future changes in the …

What drives future changes in the world’s forest carbon?

Climate change stimulates global forest carbon due to the fertilization effect of CO2. Not necessarily due to global warming itself: that has negative effects, such as more wildfires and droughts.

No slowdown, no acceleration. Global warming …

No slowdown, no acceleration. Global warming trend has been steady since the 1970s

There is no statistical evidence for a ‘slowdown period’ with a significantly reduced rate of warming in the period 1998-2014 or an acceleration of global warming in recent years.

Extreme sea levels on the rise …

Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe’s coasts

Future extreme sea levels along Europe’s coasts are mainly driven by relative sea level rise. Averaged over Europe, changes in tides, storm surges and wave set up contribute less than 20%.

Cross-border impacts of climate change: a …

Cross-border impacts of climate change: a blind spot for the European Union

Presented by Richard Taylor of the Stockholm Environment Institute at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference in Glasgow in June 2017.

Abandoned farmlands lead to more forest …

Abandoned farmlands lead to more forest fires in mainland Portugal

June 18 2017. Large forest fires strike Portugal, northeast of Lisbon. Many people have been killed. This article has been published before on the ClimateChangePost.

High-end sea level rise estimates when …

High-end sea level rise estimates when Antarctic ice shelves break up

A new high-end projection for global sea level rise, based on a recent study on the impact of Antarctic ice mass loss, shows sea level rise in 2100 may be much higher than the recent IPCC estimate.

Cities are vulnerable hotspots of climate …

Cities are vulnerable hotspots of climate change - Longread

The impact of climate change will be felt especially in the cities during hot summers, due to the urban heat island effect. Several measures can be taken though to ‘beat the heat’.

Exposure of global metal mining industry …

Exposure of global metal mining industry to climate change

Copper, lead, zinc, and nickel are vital metals for modern infrastructure. The sites where they are mined are exposed to the consequences of climate change. Most exposed are copper resources.

Climate change, water and security in …

Climate change, water and security in the Middle East

Even when droughts lead to conflict, they are not the major driver. Their impact depends on the geopolitical setting and adaptive capacity of societies, as Syria’s civil war outbreak illustrates.

Business supply chain networks are vulnerable …

Business supply chain networks are vulnerable for climate change in many ways

In our globalized world an extreme event in one part of the world can have a major impact on business continuity on the other side of the planet.

Is our cultural heritage threatened by …

Is our cultural heritage threatened by climate change?

More research is needed on sustainable adaptation planning to preserve cultural heritage under climate change, according to the first global literature review of cultural heritage and climate change.

Species on the move: Impacts on …

Species on the move: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Climate change leads to a redistribution of species on land and in the oceans. This affects our well-being because our capacity to respond to species shifting across borders is limited.

Seasonality high and low flows of …

Seasonality high and low flows of the world’s largest rivers hardly shifts under climate change

Climate change doesn’t seem to shift the timing of high- and low-flow periods of large rivers between now and the end of the century. Current stream flow seasonality, however, seems to be amplified.

Strong increase global river flood risk …

Strong increase global river flood risk may trigger large-scale crises

Even under the most optimistic scenario of global warming, global river flood risk more than doubles, stressing the need for timely and effective adaptation to control river flood risk.

Vulnerabilities of Europe’s economy to global …

Vulnerabilities of Europe’s economy to global water scarcity and drought

Vienna, 26th April 2017 – Press Release. New report on the impacts of increasing water scarcity and drought globally on the European Union’s (EU) economy.

Extreme weather impacts on critical infrastructure

Extreme weather impacts on critical infrastructure

A conference on the impact of extreme weather on critical infrastructure was organized at Deltares (the Netherlands) on March 23 2017. Final results were presented of the European INTACT project.

Changing wildfire regimes in Mediterranean Europe: …

Changing wildfire regimes in Mediterranean Europe: human activities versus climate change

Higher temperatures and more droughts not necessarily increase the number and intensity of wildfires. The combination of climate and human effects makes predictions of future fires highly challenging.

Vulnerability European cities to extreme events …

Vulnerability European cities to extreme events is increasing

Already in the next decades highly populated urban areas in Central Europe will experience significantly more hot days, tropical nights, and extreme precipitation events.

How high will the seas rise?

How high will the seas rise?

Previous sea level rise projections may have underestimated the contribution of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Recent studies lead to upward adjustment of estimated sea level rise in 2100.

Stronger weather fronts over Europe induce …

Stronger weather fronts over Europe induce more extreme weather

Extreme weather events are frequently associated with the passage of large-scale fronts. The number of extremely strong fronts is increasing, and so are precipitation extremes.

Climate impacts on European agriculture are …

Climate impacts on European agriculture are not necessarily negative

Climate impacts in Europe are not necessarily all negative. They could be beneficial for many crops and areas of production.

Green versus engineering: climate-proofing urban storm …

Green versus engineering: climate-proofing urban storm water networks calls for tailor-made solutions

More vegetation may be effective as an integral component of storm water adaptation measures to mitigate climate change-induced flooding. The extent varies from one urban area to another, however.

A dollar of flood damage hits …

A dollar of flood damage hits poor and vulnerable people hardest

Poor and vulnerable people are insufficiently protected against floods. Investments in flood risk management are based on inadequate cost-benefit analyses with a too narrow focus on financial losses.

Climate change impacts on biodiversity, an …

Climate change impacts on biodiversity, an overview

In November 2016 Science published an overview of climate change impacts on biodiversity: "The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people". This article presents a summary.

Migratory birds under threat

Migratory birds under threat

Organisms do not respond to climate change at the same pace. This has led to a mismatch between European migratory bird species and their insect food peak, and a decline in their population sizes.

Trucks, could they cease to be …

Trucks, could they cease to be an environmental concern?

Pollutant emissions spew from all corners of the planet and transport within the commercial and industrial sector especially bears no small degree of guilt.

Archaeological sites under climate change: what …

Archaeological sites under climate change: what can be preserved, and how?

Climate change will unavoidably affect the archaeological heritage, through temperature increases, changes in humidity cycles, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events.

We have made Europe’s warmest year …

We have made Europe’s warmest year of 2014 at least 500 times more likely

So far, 2014 is Europe’s hottest year on record. Research shows that anthropogenic climate change has made Europe’s warm year of 2014 at least 500 times more likely.

Storm surge levels increase along Northern …

Storm surge levels increase along Northern Europe’s coastline

Future trends in storm surge level changes along the European coastline show an increase for Northern Europe and small or no changes for Southern Europe.

Hottest summers of the past will …

Hottest summers of the past will be the ‘new normal’ within 20 years

Very hot summers will become the ‘new normal’ much faster than most people expect. A recent study describes a grim picture for the world’s population regarding high summer temperatures.

Free download: New book on Disaster …

Free download: New book on Disaster Risk Management natural catastrophes in Europe

Novel ways to enhance society’s resilience to natural disasters such as floods, heat waves or wildfires, in a newly published book of the EU-funded research project ENHANCE.

70% of Europe’s flood casualties are …

70% of Europe’s flood casualties are due to flash floods, and the number of flash floods increases

Trends of increasing numbers of flash floods in, for instance, Spain agree with the IPCC hypothesis about the increase in both torrential events and people’s vulnerability and exposure to floods.

Flood peaks of Europe’s rivers will …

Flood peaks of Europe’s rivers will increase, unless driven by snowmelt

Whether a river’s catchment in winter is dominated by rainfall or snow determines the impact of climate change on its peak flows. The impact depends on how the ratio between rainfall and snow changes.

Arctic sea ice decline reduces sailing …

Arctic sea ice decline reduces sailing time from Europe to Asia by almost half

One of the benefits of climate change is the use of Arctic sea for trans-Arctic shipping routes. Less ice in summer creates a shortcut between Pacific and Atlantic ports.

Farmers in Eastern Europe will suffer …

Farmers in Eastern Europe will suffer more from climate change than their colleagues in the West

There is no such thing as a European response to climate change. Regions with the same increase in temperature and precipitation will have different impacts of climate change.

Little impact climate change on water-borne …

Little impact climate change on water-borne diseases

Green water under a blue sky. Water in the canals of Delft (the Netherlands) turned green this summer, due to warm water and high nutrients input.

Adaptation for the sake of peace …

Adaptation for the sake of peace and security

Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in combination make societies more resilient to climate-fragility risks. Yet, a link between them has been more or less absent over the last years

Climate change and refugee flows

Climate change and refugee flows

Adverse environmental impacts associated with climate change can trigger displacement of an increased number of people. If people do migrate, this will mostly be internally within individual countries

Relationship climate change and violence is …

Relationship climate change and violence is not that simple!

Climate change may act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. But there is no evidence of a strong relationship between warming and armed conflict.

Europe’s security risks under climate change

Europe’s security risks under climate change

Europe is surrounded by some of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Migratory pressure at the European Union's borders and political instability and conflicts could increase in the future.

Malaria will not spread across Europe …

Malaria will not spread across Europe under climate change

The changing climate may turn large parts of Europe into a suitable home for malarial mosquitoes. But a large-scale malaria epidemic is highly unlikely. The health infrastructure is too good for that.

More tick-borne diseases, but not necessarily …

More tick-borne diseases, but not necessarily due to climate change - Longread

Disease-transmitting ticks are expanding over Europe, consistent with observed warming trends. There is no evidence, however, of any associated changes in the distribution of tick-borne diseases.

Urban adaptation to climate change in …

Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe

Based on a presentation by Birgit Georgi (European Environment Agency) at the 4th Nordic Conference on Climate Change Adaptation in Bergen, Norway, August 2016.

What do climate service users need …

What do climate service users need and what can they get?

Presented by Erik Kolstad (Uni Research Climate & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research) at the 4th Nordic Conference on Climate Change Adaptation in Bergen, Norway, August 2016.

Lucky Norway. Hydropower and the benefits …

Lucky Norway. Hydropower and the benefits of climate change

Based on a presentation by Per Sanderud and a discussion with Hege Hisdal and Christina Beisland of NVE at the 4th Nordic Conference on Climate Change Adaptation in Bergen, Norway, August 2016.

Longread - Dying from cold in …

Longread - Dying from cold in a warmer world

More heat-related deaths in summer may not balance less cold-related deaths in winter. In fact, higher winter temperature volatility and an ageing population may increase the number of winter deaths.

Wildfire risk is increasing, how to …

Wildfire risk is increasing, how to adapt?

Current wildfire risk calls for more than well-equipped fire fighting units. Investments are needed in plane and satellite monitoring of forests, early warning, and more resilience to fires.

Hydropower and cooling water under climate …

Hydropower and cooling water under climate change: most of the world’s potential still not being used

The world relies on the available surface water resources for electricity generation. How will global warming affect the potential for hydropower and cooling water?

Wildfires increase in Europe from north …

Wildfires increase in Europe from north to south by a factor 10!

Wildfire risk in northern Europe is much less than in the south. In northern Europe, wildfires are rare: the percentage of forestland burnt annually is less than 0.05%, compared with 0.55% for Spain.

What is driving future water scarcity: …

What is driving future water scarcity: climate change or population growth?

The frequency of droughts will increase in the next several decades. In addition, population will grow. Both impacts have been assessed. The conclusion: climate change plays the primary role.

Wildfires and climate change, a connection …

Wildfires and climate change, a connection that’s hard to deny

The impacts of climate change on natural hazards cast their shadows in the increasing numbers of wildfires. The causal connection is hard to deny.

Longread - Heat waves: the number …

Longread - Heat waves: the number one natural hazard

The increase in intensity of heat waves in combination with high tropospheric ozone concentrations represents the greatest direct risk that climate change poses to people’s health in Europe.

Ozone and fine particulate matter: major …

Ozone and fine particulate matter: major killers

50% of the deaths as a result of the European summer heat wave of 2003 may be associated with ozone exposure rather than the heat itself, research has shown.

Northern Europe’s agriculture will benefit from …

Northern Europe’s agriculture will benefit from longer and warmer growing season, southern countries will suffer

The prolongation and intensification of the thermal growing season offers several benefits for northern European forestry and agriculture. In southern Europe, negative impacts dominate.

How to adapt to higher river …

How to adapt to higher river flood peaks? Not (necessarily) by raising the dikes

Increasing the level of flood protection may be cost-effective, but is not sustainable in the long term. A higher level of flood protection results in the loss of flood memory.

How hazards will change in Europe …

How hazards will change in Europe under climate change

Looking at the combination of extreme events, entire Europe could face a progressive increase in overall climate exposure, with a prominent spatial gradient towards southwestern regions

Climate-related disaster risk increases, but not …

Climate-related disaster risk increases, but not necessarily due to climate change

Increasing exposure to flooding is the main cause of the steeply rising trend in global river flood losses over the past decades.

Forest management can mitigate climate change …

Forest management can mitigate climate change effects on streamflow

Forest management can mitigate the effects of climate change. Climate and forest management interact and affect streamflow differentially.

First human influence on heat extremes …

First human influence on heat extremes several decades ago

The effect of climate change on extreme events extends back several decades. An example is the record- breaking hot summer of 1997/1998 in Australia.

Can we relate climate change to …

Can we relate climate change to specific extreme events?

A new field of science called “extreme event attribution” allows for answering the question: did climate change play a role in
this specific extreme event?

The Battle of Engineers against Climate …

The Battle of Engineers against Climate Change

The battle against climate change will be a race against the clock. Engineers will have to fight on two fronts: towards a sustainable energy system and against projected impacts.

Less or more severe storms on …

Less or more severe storms on the Atlantic due to climate change?

It is yet unclear how climate change may affect the number of severe storms on the Atlantic Ocean and in the European coastal zone.

Climate change impact on Europe’s air …

Climate change impact on Europe’s air quality is hard to quantify

Air pollution is a serious health concern in many parts of the world. Projections of air quality changes over Europe under climate change are highly uncertain, however.

Water scarcity increases worldwide due to …

Water scarcity increases worldwide due to climate change

Under a moderate scenario of climate change, by 2050 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity solely due to climate change.

Europe’s extreme heat wave of 2010: …

Europe’s extreme heat wave of 2010: not just due to climate change

The heat wave in 2010 was likely the hottest summer in the last 500 years in eastern Europe. It was both due to natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

Hotter summers versus warmer winters: health …

Hotter summers versus warmer winters: health implications of global warming

An interesting ‘trade-off’ is the effect of global warming on the number of heat-related and cold-related deaths. What will be the net effect of hotter summers and warmer winters?

More water stored on land slowed …

More water stored on land slowed down sea level rise in last decade

Over the last years, climate-driven changes such as large-scale floods have increased the volume of water on land. This increase slowed down sea level rise.

What do we really know about …

What do we really know about our future flood risk?

Climate change will have an impact on river flood risk, but to what extent? One thing is clear: the impact is highly uncertain.

Future floods and hydrological droughts in …

Future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

The impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts have been assessed for Europe for 1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events.

Global warming will reduce global yields …

Global warming will reduce global yields of maize and soybean

Maize and soybean are among the most important food crops worldwide. Global warming reduces growing season length and yields for both crops.

Spring advancement in Europe due to …

Spring advancement in Europe due to global warming may amplify the effect of climate change

The earlier green-up of vegetation in Europe amplifies spring warming, especially the frequency and intensity of spring heat waves, according to a recent study.

How to turn flash floods into …

How to turn flash floods into a resource

At many places climate change both increases droughts and heavy rainfall. Too little and too much water are part of the same problem. They may be part of the same solution too

The world’s poorest cities can’t cope …

The world’s poorest cities can’t cope with climate change

Urban centers worldwide are racing to bolster themselves and their residents against rising sea levels

Salt marshes will survive sea level …

Salt marshes will survive sea level rise

Sea level rise over the next decades is not an immediate, catastrophic threat to many marshes: marshes will survive in place under relatively fast rates of sea level rise

Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change

Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change

The global area of dryland is increasing rapidly. This was shown from data over the period 1948–2005, and seems to proceed towards the end of this century.

Future changes of wind energy potential …

Future changes of wind energy potential over Europe

Wind energy potential more likely than not will increase over Northern and Central Europe. For Southern Europe, a likely decrease of mean annual wind energy potential is projected.

Rapid and highly variable warming of …

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

Lake summer surface water temperatures are warming significantly, with a mean trend of 0.34°C per decade, across 235 globally distributed lakes.

Forest fires and adaptation options in …

Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe

Estimates of potential increase in annual burned areas in Europe under a high-end scenario of climate change show an increase of about 200% by 2090

Desertification in Mediterranean will extend northwards …

Desertification in Mediterranean will extend northwards to areas currently not at risk

The larger Mediterranean Basin will have warmer and dryer climate conditions at the end of this century. Desertification in the Mediterranean region

Forest management cannot keep pace with …

Forest management cannot keep pace with climate change impact on European forest

The results of a European-wide study show that forest management cannot keep pace with the projected change in species suitability under climate change.

River flood risk in Europe under …

River flood risk in Europe under high-end climate scenarios

Estimates based on a combination of climate and flooding models indicate that river floods affect some 216,000 people every year in Europe. The estimated annual damage for Europe is 5.3 B€.

Tourism demand changes in Europe due …

Tourism demand changes in Europe due to climate change

Climatic conditions might become more favorable for tourism in the north of Europe and less so in the south. Climate model projections for 2100

Flood risk insurance in the European …

Flood risk insurance in the European Union.

Flood insurance differs widely in scope and form across Europe. There seems to be little appetite for harmonization of flood insurance arrangements across the EU

Widespread forest mortality under climate warming

Widespread forest mortality under climate warming

Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history.

Explaining extreme events of 2014 from …

Explaining extreme events of 2014 from a climate perspective

Recently, the American Meteorological Society published a large number of studies on extreme events in 2014, focused on the question whether these can be (partly) attributed to climate change.

Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge …

Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents

Bumblebee species seem to fail to move to the north of Europe and North America in response to global warming whereas they lose habitats at the southern range

How cities can beat the heat

How cities can beat the heat

What measures may be effective in reducing the urban heat island effect and cool down cities during heat waves? A comparison of recent insights from scientific studies

Effects of climate change and seed …

Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on ragweed pollen loads in Europe

Allergenic diseases caused by pollen may appear earlier in the year and may also increase. An example of the latter is the invasion of common ragweed (a native in North America) into Europe since the

Global mountain topography and the fate …

Global mountain topography and the fate of montane species under climate change

Climate change is considered a large threat to especially montane species. These species often inhabit narrow elevational ranges

Europe’s flood regions

Europe’s flood regions

Five large-scale homogeneous regions in Europe have been identified in terms of flood regimes, based on the longest available flow series from across Europe

Range minimum - maximum temperatures changes …

Range minimum - maximum temperatures changes differently across Europe

Many impact studies assume that climate change results in changing daily minimum and maximum temperatures by the same amount and in the same direction. However, on local scales

Changes of future western European heat …

Changes of future western European heat wave characteristics

Extreme heat waves have an impact on western European electricity supply due to the increased electricity demand for cooling and the power limitation of thermoelectric plants

Severe Autumn storms in future Western …

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

In a warmer future climate, Western Europe will see larger impacts from severe Autumn storms. Not only their frequency will increase, but also their intensity and the area they affect.

Sea level rise projections for northern …

Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under upper limit emissions scenarios

How much sea level rise is to be expected at the upper limit of current IPCC scenarios? This question has been dealt with for northern Europe

Climate change and the permafrost carbon …

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

In high-latitude regions of the Earth, temperatures have risen 0.6 °C per decade, twice as fast as the global average. The resulting thaw of frozen ground

Global mean sea-level rise: latest results

Global mean sea-level rise: latest results

According to satellite altimetry-based data anthropogenic global warming has resulted in global mean sea-level rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/year over the period 1994-2011

Global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature …

Global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes due to global warming

Specific individual extreme weather events cannot be attributed to climate change. It has been shown, however, that the overall probability of climate change having an effect on extreme events can be

Changing global patterns of urban exposure …

Changing global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards

With respect to high-frequency flood zones, including exposure to both coastal and river floods, in 2000 about 30% of the global urban land was located in these zones; by 2030, this will reach 40%.

Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of …

Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the World

There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature

Mitigating urban heat island effects in …

Mitigating urban heat island effects in cities

For Canadian cities, four major categories of mitigation strategies and measures have been identified: Greening measures: all measures that can increase

Human and climate impacts on the …

Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought

Human influence can account for almost 100% of the changes in future hydrological drought in areas such as Asia, Middle East and North-Africa (Mediterranean).

Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

Climate change threatens one in six species (16%) globally if we follow our current, business-as-usual trajectory

Climate potential for beach-based tourism in …

Climate potential for beach-based tourism in the Mediterranean in the 21st century

The overall enhancement on summery tourist comfort in north-western European countries and the overall degradation in the Mediterranean could lead to

Climate change and foodborne transmission of …

Climate change and foodborne transmission of parasites

The impact of climate change on foodborne parasites is complicated and provides no easy answers.

Changing geography of high-quality wine production …

Changing geography of high-quality wine production in Europe

European wine farms show considerable potential to improve their economic performance, and thereby ease their situation in a global change scenario.

Climate change impacts on European wind …

Climate change impacts on European wind energy

future changes in wind power potential are weak or non-significant over a large part of Europe: changes in wind power potential will remain within ±15% and ±20% by mid and late century respectively.

Global warming and 21st century drying

Global warming and 21st century drying

Projected climate changes suggest increased drying, driven primarily by increases in evapotranspiration. This will likely have significant ramifications for globally important regions

New high-resolution climate change projections for …

New high-resolution climate change projections for Europe

The latest high-resolution future climate simulations for Europe (from the EURO-CORDEX program) refer to a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. The first results address changes

Climate change impacts on groundwater and …

Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems

Future climate change will affect recharge rates and, in turn, the depth of groundwater levels and the amount of available groundwater.

Adaptation potential of European agriculture in …

Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change

The adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change has been assessed for a number of crops. It was shown that adaptation potential is high for maize

Threat to future global food security …

Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution

Global demand for food is expected to increase by at least 50% from 2010 to 2050 mainly as a result of population growth and a shift towards a more `westernized' diet

More frequent adverse weather conditions for …

More frequent adverse weather conditions for European wheat production

With 25% of the global wheat area and 29% of global wheat production, Europe is the largest producer of wheat. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events

Loss of cultural world heritage to …

Loss of cultural world heritage to sea-level rise

The impact of global warming on the cultural world heritage through sea level rise has been estimated for the next 2000 years.

Adapting rail and road networks to …

Adapting rail and road networks to weather extremes: case studies for southern Germany and Austria

In the past decade, winter consequences and flood events accounted for 96% of the total rail and road networks costs in the Alps, 92% in mid-Europe and 91% across EUR29.

Costs estimates of weather extremes on …

Costs estimates of weather extremes on transport now and in 40 years

Railways are the losers of climate change thanks to their expensive—and therefore vulnerable—infrastructure and their complex vehicle routing system and high safety standards.

Climate outsider finds missing global warming

Climate outsider finds missing global warming

A recent analysis indicates that the planet has warmed most where scientists are watching least. The recent slowdown in warming seems to be half as big as previously thought.

Crop yield under climate change and …

Crop yield under climate change and adaptation

Global yield impacts of climate change and adaptation have been evaluated by analysing a data set of more than 1,700 published simulations for three crops: wheat, rice and maize.

Extreme weather and climate change impacts …

Extreme weather and climate change impacts on inland waterway transport

On the Rhine–Main–Danube corridor no decrease in the performance of inland waterway transport due to extreme weather events is expected till 2050.

Twenty-first century glacier mass changes

Twenty-first century glacier mass changes

Current global glacier volume is projected to reduce by 29 - 41% over the period 2006–2100. Scandinavia may lose more than 75% of its current volume

Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security

Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security

Water scarcity and climate change are overall not found to have an important association with armed conflict, especially if compared to poverty and dysfunctional institutions.

Integrating climate change into peacebuilding

Integrating climate change into peacebuilding

Opportunities for integrating climate change into peacebuilding refer to socio-economic recovery, politics and governance, security and rule of law, and human rights.

Climate change impacts on marine fisheries

Climate change impacts on marine fisheries

Projected impacts indicate increased fish productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes

Streamflow and thermal habitats of freshwater …

Streamflow and thermal habitats of freshwater fishes under climate change

Climate change will affect future flow and thermal regimes of rivers. This will directly affect freshwater habitats and ecosystem health.

Agricultural risk management policies under climate …

Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty

Risk management instruments in agriculture, such as crop insurance and disaster assistance programme, and especially how they are designed, will affect incentives to adapt.

Costs and benefits of adaptation to …

Costs and benefits of adaptation to river flood risk

Assuming protection against a 100-year flood event, EU annual river flood damage is estimated to increase from €5.5 billion now to €98 billion in 2100.

Future reduction of snowfall in western …

Future reduction of snowfall in western and central Europe

Precipitation on future days, where average daily temperature is below freezing, decreases in large parts of Europe in a future warmer climate.

Future yield estimates under climate change

Future yield estimates under climate change

The yield decreasing effect of climate change in Europe is projected to be compensated and partially superseded by higher atmospheric CO2 concentration and technology development.

Irrigation water demand under climate change

Irrigation water demand under climate change

For Europe, by the end of the century, irrigation water demand is projected to decrease for Eastern Europe under scenarios for moderate climate change.

Trends in European precipitation extremes over …

Trends in European precipitation extremes over 1951–2010

In Europe, 1-day and 5-day precipitation events that occurred on average once in 5, 10 and 20 years in the 1950s and 1960s generally became more common during the period 1951–2010.

Poleward shifts crop pests and pathogens

Poleward shifts crop pests and pathogens

The average poleward shift in recorded incidences of crop pests and pathogens since 1960 is 2.2 ± 0.8 km/year for the Northern Hemisphere and 1.7 ± 1.7 km/year for the Southern Hemisphere.

Managing forests and fire in changing …

Managing forests and fire in changing climates

Fire policy that focuses on suppression only delays the inevitable, promising more dangerous and destructive future forest fires.

Vulnerability hotspots for wheat and maize

Vulnerability hotspots for wheat and maize

There are perhaps five wheat and three maize growing regions likely to be both exposed to worse droughts and a reduced capacity to adapt.

Urban heat island effect European cities

Urban heat island effect European cities

The urban heat island effect has been quantified for all cities in 38 European countries. It was shown that this effect varies over the seasons.

Global air pollution-related premature mortality

Global air pollution-related premature mortality

21st century climate change increases global all-cause premature mortalities associated with PM2.5 by approximately 100,000 deaths and respiratory disease mortality

Climate change impacts on thermal power …

Climate change impacts on thermal power plants

The effects and the relevance of gradual climate change on the probability of power outages and blackouts are difficult to quantify. It has been stated that by 2040 capacity reductions of 13–19 %

Vulnerability of oil and gas sector

Vulnerability of oil and gas sector

Climate change and extreme weather events represent a real physical threat to the oil and gas sector, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and areas exposed to extreme weather events.

Global flood risk under climate change

Global flood risk under climate change

Flood frequency increases in West and Northwest Europe, including the UK, Ireland, the Low Countries and most of France. In contrast, flood frequency decreases in many regions of

Multi-hazard impact assessment for Europe

Multi-hazard impact assessment for Europe

At the regional level, the impact of climate change was assessed for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change ...

Economic value loss of European forest …

Economic value loss of European forest land due to climate change.

The expected value of European forest land is expected to decrease owing to the decline of economically valuable species in the absence of effective countermeasures ...

Is climate change a driver of …

Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?

From the available scientific literature the impact of climate change on security is yet unclear ...

Adaptation to climate change impacts on …

Adaptation to climate change impacts on urban storm water

Problems with efficient dewatering following heavy rainfall events are not uncommon already today, e.g. because of urbanization beyond the system capacity ...

Loss potentials for European windstorms under …

Loss potentials for European windstorms under future climate conditions

Windstorm losses are expected to reach unseen magnitudes, which for some countries (e.g. Germany) may exceed 200% of the strongest event in present day climate simulations ...

Ground water and climate change

Ground water and climate change

Substantial reductions in potential groundwater recharge are projected for the 21st century in southern Europe and increases in northern Europe ...

Impacts and adaptation to climate change …

Impacts and adaptation to climate change in European economies

The economic impacts of climate change have been estimated for a global mean temperature rise of +2°C and +4°C for 27 European countries ...

The future of dry and wet …

The future of dry and wet spells in Europe

Changes in dry and wet spell characteristics in Europe have been projected for 2021–2050 compared with 1961–1990 ...

Mega heat waves in Europe

Mega heat waves in Europe

During the 2001–2010 decade, 500-year-long records of highest air temperature were likely broken over 65% of Europe, including ...

Economic impacts of sea level rise …

Economic impacts of sea level rise in Europe

The direct and indirect costs of sea level rise for Europe have been modelled for a range of sea level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s. The results show ...

Vulnerability of European electricity supply to …

Vulnerability of European electricity supply to climate change

Climate change will impact thermoelectric power production in Europe through a combination of increased water temperatures and ...

River flood risk in Europe

River flood risk in Europe

From an assessment of the implications of climate change for future flood damage and people exposed by floods in Europe it was concluded ...

Tourism: winners and loosers

Tourism: winners and loosers

Climate change may have a net positive effect on the overall European potential for tourism ...

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Additional information

European Environment Agency

Database on disasters worldwide

Guides on disaster preparation and planning

EU funded Research Projects: Horizon 2020

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