Cyprus Cyprus Cyprus Cyprus

Previously in ClimateChangePost

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Experts may judge that Cyprus stays a good beach destination in the future, but beaches in the north of Europe will become better destinations as well.

The global area of dryland is increasing rapidly. This was shown from data over the period 1948–2005, and seems to proceed towards the end of this century.

Studies have shown that in the eastern Mediterranean, the intensity, length and number of heat waves have increased by a factor of six to eight since the 1960s. Not all studies confirm

The Mediterranean Sea is warming in both shallow and deep waters. This warming is part of global climate trends and not a regional phenomenon.

Across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly.

The likely effects of climate change on the water resources of Cyprus have been investigated for 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 compared with 1961–1990 ...

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I recommend

National plans/strategies for Cyprus

  • Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Cyprus under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2014). Download.

Reports/papers that focus on important Cypriot topics

  • Climate change in Cyprus - Impacts and adaptation policies. Download
  • Fresh water resources: Collins (2009). Water scarcity and drought in the Mediterranean. Download.

Reports/papers that present a sound overview for Europe

  • Eisenreich (2005). Climate change and the European water dimension. A report to the European water directors.
  • European Environment Agency (2005). Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe. Download.
  • European Environment Agency, JRC and WHO (2008). Impact of Europe’s changing climate – 2008 indicator-based assessment. Download.

Reports/papers that focus on specific topics, relevant for all of Europe

  • Agriculture: Rounsevell et al. (2005). Future scenarios of European agricultural land use II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Download.
  • Agriculture: Fischer et al. (2005). Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Download.
  • Biodiversity: Thuiller et al. (2005). Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Download.
  • Coastal erosion: Salman et al. (2004). Living with coastal erosion in Europe: sediment and space for sustainability. Download.
  • Droughts: Blenkinsop and Fowler (2007). Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Download.
  • Droughts: European Environment Agency (2009). Water resources across Europe – confronting water scarcity and drought. Download.
  • Forestry: Seppälä et al. (2009). Adaptation of forests and people to climate change. A global assessment report. Download.
  • Health: Kosatsky (2005). The 2003 European heat waves. Download.
  • Health: WHO (2008). Protecting health in Europe from climate change. Download.
  • Insurance and Business: Mills et al. (2005). Availability and affordability of insurance under climate change. A growing challenge for the U.S. Download.
  • Security and Crisis management: German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007). World in transition: Climate change as a security risk. Summary for policy-makers. Download.
  • Storms: Gardiner et al. (2010). Destructive storms in European forests: Past and forthcoming impacts. Download.
  • Storms: Pinto et al. (2007). Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Download.
  • Tourism: Deutsche Bank Research (2008). Climate change and tourism: Where will the journey lead? Download.

EU funded Research Projects

Energy Cyprus

Energy in Cyprus in numbers

Wind power

Wind share of total electricity consumption in Cyprus was 3.4% by the end of 2010. Overall in the EU, in a normal wind year, installed wind capacity at the end of 2010 meets 5.3% of the EU’s electricity needs (10).

Vulnerabilities Cyprus

Demand

Energy demand for heating is projected to decrease during spring and winter in the near future (2050) in Cyprus. On the other hand, for the ‘warm’ period of the year (May–October), an increasing trend in energy consumption is evident as warmer conditions dominate by 2050 (15). 

For the period 2021‐2050 it has been estimated that the growth of desalination capacity may result in an increase of electricity consumption that corresponds to 8% of the total electricity consumption for 2008 (12). In addition, the number of cooling days in this period will grow by 25 days. The additional energy needed for these two energy intensive sectors combined may correspond to 15.4% of the total electricity consumption in 2005. If other sectors of the economy are taken into consideration as well, the increase in energy demand could reach 20% or even 30% of the total electricity consumption in Cyprus for the period 2021‐2050 relative to the 1961‐1990 reference period (12).

Supply

Climate change may increase the risk of failures in the electricity transmission system due to higher temperatures, higher humidity and deposition of dust on insulators, thus leading to a higher need for cleaning insulators, which results in more frequent outage of generating units or transmission lines and decreases of the available power. During heat waves, sea water (which is the cooling agent of power generating units in Cyprus) is warmer, resulting to insufficient cooling of the generating units leading to less efficient – and therefore more costly – power generation (13).

Vulnerabilities Europe

Supply

The current key renewable energy sources in Europe are hydropower (19.8% of electricity generated) and wind. By the 2070s, hydropower potential for the whole of Europe is expected to decline by 6%, translated into a 20 to 50% decrease around the Mediterranean, a 15 to 30% increase in northern and eastern Europe and a stable hydropower pattern for western and central Europe (1,3,4). In areas with increased precipitation and runoff, dam safety may become a problem due to more frequent and intensive flooding events (5).


It has become apparent during recent heat waves and drought periods that electricity generation in thermal power plants may be affected by increases in water temperature and water scarcity. In the case of higher water temperatures the discharge of warm cooling water into the river may be restricted if limit values for temperature are exceeded. Electricity production has already had to be reduced in various locations in Europe during very warm summers (e.g. 2003, 2005 and 2006) (5,8).

Extreme heat waves can pose a serious threat to uninterrupted electricity supplies, mainly because cooling air may be too warm and cooling water may be both scarce and too warm (9).

Climate change will impact thermoelectric power production in Europe through a combination of increased water temperatures and reduced river flow, especially during summer. In particular, thermoelectric power plants in southern and south-eastern Europe will be affected by climate change. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3–19% in Europe was shown for 2031–2060 compared with 1971-2000, depending on cooling system type and climate scenario (SRES B1 and A2) (14).

Overall, a decrease in low flows (10th percentile of daily distribution) for Europe (except Scandinavia) is projected with an average decrease of 13-15% for 2031–2060 and 16-23% for 2071-2100,compared with 1971-2000. Increases in mean summer (21 June - 20 September) water temperatures are projected of 0.8-1.0°C for 2031–2060 and 1.4-2.3°C for 2071-2100, compared with 1971-2000. Projected water temperature increases are highest in the south-western and south-eastern parts of Europe (14).

By the 22nd century, land area devoted to biofuels may increase by a factor of two to three in all parts of Europe (2).

Demand

It may become more challenging to meet energy demands during peak times due to more frequent heat waves and drought conditions (1). Strong distributional patterns are expected across Europe — with rising cooling (electricity) demand in summer in southern Europe, compared with reduced heating (energy) demand in winter in northern Europe (7).

Adaptation strategies - Cyprus

The following adaptation measures have been recommended (13):

  • Energy conservation and efficiency must be promoted. Implementation of proper carbon pricing of all energy forms and raising of public awareness, play a key role in order to encourage energy conservation;
  • Long-term electricity generation plans have to be adjusted in order to account for additional capacity needed due to climate change, giving priority to renewable electricity generation.

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Cyprus.

  1. Lehner et al. (2005), in: Alcamo et al. (2007)
  2. Metzger et al. (2004), in: Alcamo et al. (2007)
  3. Kirkinen et al. (2005), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
  4. Veijalainen and Vehviläinen (2006); Andréasson et al. (2006), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
  5. Anderson (ed.) (2007)
  6. Rothstein et al. (2006), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
  7. Alcamo et al., 2007
  8. EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
  9. Behrens et al. (2010)
  10. European Wind Energy Association (2011)
  11. Zachariadis, 2010), in: Shoukri and Zachariadis (2012)
  12. Lange (2011), in: Shoukri and Zachariadis (2012)
  13. Shoukri and Zachariadis (2012)
  14. Van Vliet et al. (2012)
  15. Giannakopoulos et al. (2016)
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