Health

Twenty years after the deadly heat of 2003, Europe’s heat response is still ineffective

Since 2003, when heat caused 70,000 deaths, heat-related mortality has been a major concern in Europe. Over 60,000 heat-related deaths in 2022 illustrate that heat response is still ineffective.

Clear footprint of global warming on death toll in European summer of 2022

The summer of 2022 was Europe’s hottest since 2003. A study for Switzerland shows that 60% of the people that died from heat that summer would not have died in the absence of global warming.

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From Paris Agreement to current policies: a 5-fold increase in global hot exposure

Hot exposure, the population exposed to unprecedented heat worldwide, increases 5-fold under 2.7 °C – the projected result of current policies – compared with the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement.

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70 years from now, nearly half of the urban population could be exposed to high heat stress

By 2100, over 3 billion people worldwide may live in urban areas with high humid heat stress, more than three times the current situation. Planting trees may not be effective in mitigating this.

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Health at the mercy of fossil fuels

Each year the Lancet, one of the world’s leading medical journals, publishes a report on the global status on health and climate change. Health is still at the mercy of fossil fuels, they conclude.

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Heat-related mortality is on the rise in Europe, while cold-related mortality is falling

The increase in the number of people in Europe dying from high temperatures will start to exceed the reduction of the number of people dying from cold spells in the second half of this century.

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More and more people die from heat, fewer and fewer from cold spells

Globally, in the last two decades, the decrease of the annual number of cold-related deaths exceeded the increased of heat-related deaths, leading to a net reduction in the overall death ratio.

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Climate change is already increasing health risks globally

It is likely that climate change has already increased the health risks of heat stress, air quality and a number of diseases, globally, a recent literature survey and expert judgment has shown.

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The ‘invisible risk’ of heatwaves in the United Kingdom

Heatwaves affect far more sectors than just public health. In the United Kingdom, these risks are ‘invisible’ to policy and research, scientists conclude.

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Ocean acidification affects our health in many ways

The oceans acidify and this affects our health in many ways. Changes include the quantity and quality of seafood, pollutants accumulating in human tissue, and natural toxins released in the air.

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Health adaptation to climate change: a global assessment

Global health adaptation to climate change is moving in a positive direction, but at a relatively slow pace. Countries are spending more on health adaptation, though.

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Urbanization increases heat stress urban dwellers, on top of global warming

The extra warming in 2050 due to urban expansion will be as significant as, or even stronger than, that caused by global warming, increasing extreme heat risk for billions of urban dwellers.

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Heat stress risk in Southern Europe is increasing

The time per year that the inhabitants of Athens are exposed to conditions of extreme heat stress has increased since 1960. Extreme heat stress now occurs both earlier and later in the year.

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Heat will be a much larger health threat in Europe’s near future

Both heat stress and ozone increase mortality, and both are affected by climate change. While the total health burden of ozone will decrease by 2050, heat-related mortality will strongly increase.

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Heat-related mortality in Polish cities: Up to three times more fatalities on hot summer days

In Poland, mortality is generally highest in winter and lowest in summer. However, heat waves may increase the number of fatalities such that summer mortality equals or exceeds winter mortality.

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Reduced heat exposure and mortality by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

The number of people in Europe exposed to temperatures above the historical record in any summer would increase to 11% of the population in a 1.5 °C warmer world and to 20% in a 2 °C warmer world.

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Heat-related mortality: warmer regions benefit the most from limiting global warming

If we succeed in limiting global warming to well below 2 °C, we may prevent large increases in heat-related mortality across the globe.

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Is global warming increasing heat-related mortality? Not in Sweden, so far!

Will more intense heat waves increase mortality in Europe? Not necessarily. Data on temperature-related mortality in Stockholm, Sweden, show a decline of heat-related mortality over the last 100 years

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Warmest night in The Netherlands so far. Extreme summer temperatures are rising - an update

On Friday 27 July 2018, night temperature in the Netherlands did not drop below 23.6 °C. The hottest night ever measured. An update of climate change and hot cities.

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Heat waves: the number one natural hazard – an update

In the midst of summer in Europe, we present an update of an overview posted on the ClimateChangePost in 2016. We included the results of scientific studies published in the last two years.

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More people exposed to heat waves: global warming versus population growth

More people will be exposed to heat-related extremes, due to both global warming and population growth. The impact of climate change dominates over population growth, a recent study has shown.

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The combination of hot and humid weather may threaten the lives of many people by 2080

Exposure to extreme hot and humid conditions will rapidly increase throughout the 21st century. Especially in the tropics and mid-latitudes, containing half of the world’s future population.

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Heat waves and their effect on human mortality in Europe

On average 28,000 people die every year in 27 European countries due to heat waves. 0.61% of all mortality in the examined 27 countries is excess mortality caused by heat waves.

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50 times more weather-related deaths in 2100, unless we take action

The number of deaths as a result of weather-related disasters is expected to increase by roughly 50 times between now and 2100, if we do not take appropriate measures. Heat waves are the most lethal.

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Cities are vulnerable hotspots of climate change - Longread

The impact of climate change will be felt especially in the cities during hot summers, due to the urban heat island effect. Several measures can be taken though to ‘beat the heat’.

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Vulnerability European cities to extreme events is increasing

Already in the next decades highly populated urban areas in Central Europe will experience significantly more hot days, tropical nights, and extreme precipitation events.

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Amsterdam is hot, in many ways

On a hot day, the city of Amsterdam in the Netherlands can be up to 5 °C warmer than the surrounding rural areas. Both climate change and urbanization will increase this urban heat island effect.

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Hottest summers of the past will be the ‘new normal’ within 20 years

Very hot summers will become the ‘new normal’ much faster than most people expect. A recent study describes a grim picture for the world’s population regarding high summer temperatures.

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More precipitation may increase pollution of inland and coastal waters

Pollution of inland streams, rivers and coastal waters may change. More intense precipitation in the future may lead to more pollutants being transported to water bodies.

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Little impact climate change on water-borne diseases

Green water under a blue sky. Water in the canals of Delft (the Netherlands) turned green this summer, due to warm water and high nutrients input.

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Worldwide, heat stress is increasing

Heat stress has increased since 1973 over many land regions. A further increase of heat stress during this century is projected.

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Malaria will not spread across Europe under climate change

The changing climate may turn large parts of Europe into a suitable home for malarial mosquitoes. But a large-scale malaria epidemic is highly unlikely. The health infrastructure is too good for that.

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More tick-borne diseases, but not necessarily due to climate change - Longread

Disease-transmitting ticks are expanding over Europe, consistent with observed warming trends. There is no evidence, however, of any associated changes in the distribution of tick-borne diseases.

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Longread - Dying from cold in a warmer world

More heat-related deaths in summer may not balance less cold-related deaths in winter. In fact, higher winter temperature volatility and an ageing population may increase the number of winter deaths.

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Longread - Heat waves: the number one natural hazard

The increase in intensity of heat waves in combination with high tropospheric ozone concentrations represents the greatest direct risk that climate change poses to people’s health in Europe.

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Ozone and fine particulate matter: major killers

50% of the deaths as a result of the European summer heat wave of 2003 may be associated with ozone exposure rather than the heat itself, research has shown.

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Climate change caused 70% of heat-related casualties in Paris during hot summer of 2003

As a result of the extreme hot summer of 2003, 44,000 people died in Western Europe. How rare was this extreme event, and what is the effect of climate change?

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First human influence on heat extremes several decades ago

The effect of climate change on extreme events extends back several decades. An example is the record- breaking hot summer of 1997/1998 in Australia.

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Can we relate climate change to specific extreme events?

A new field of science called “extreme event attribution” allows for answering the question: did climate change play a role in
this specific extreme event?

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Climate change impact on Europe’s air quality is hard to quantify

Air pollution is a serious health concern in many parts of the world. Projections of air quality changes over Europe under climate change are highly uncertain, however.

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There are things we cannot fix! The reality of health impacts of climate change.

Presented by Kristie Ebi (University of Washington, USA) and Hilary Bambrick (Western Sydney University, Australia) at the Adaptation Futures Conference in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, May 2016

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Hotter summers versus warmer winters: health implications of global warming

An interesting ‘trade-off’ is the effect of global warming on the number of heat-related and cold-related deaths. What will be the net effect of hotter summers and warmer winters?

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Hours of heat stress will double for the Dutch between now and 2050

Thermal discomfort will substantially increase in The Netherlands. This was concluded from an analysis of 4 climate change scenarios for 2050 compared to 1976 - 2005.

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Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on ragweed pollen loads in Europe

Allergenic diseases caused by pollen may appear earlier in the year and may also increase. An example of the latter is the invasion of common ragweed (a native in North America) into Europe since the

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Increased risk of heat stress to human health in Romania since the mid-1980s

Both an index for winter wind chill and an index for summer thermal stress showed a significant upward trend over the entire country for the period 1962−2010

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Mitigating urban heat island effects in cities

For Canadian cities, four major categories of mitigation strategies and measures have been identified: Greening measures: all measures that can increase

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Climate change and foodborne transmission of parasites

The impact of climate change on foodborne parasites is complicated and provides no easy answers.

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Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heat wave

According to a recent study, the chance of extremely hot summers would have increased dramatically since the 2003 European heat wave.

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Evolution of heat wave occurrence over the Paris basin (France) in the 21st century

For the period 1960−1989 on average one heat wave in 10 years was calculated, for 2020−2049 1 heat wave every 2 years was projected, rising to at least

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More frequent heat waves in South-East Europe since the 1960s

The summer of 2012 was very hot and dry in South-East Europe. From model simulations and observations it was concluded that the magnitude and frequency of heat waves have increased

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Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature varies across England and Wales

The effects of warm temperature on mortality from cardiorespiratory causes may not be the same from one part of the country to another. This was concluded from a study where

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Climate warming will not decrease winter mortality

Absolute number of excess winter deaths may increase in the coming decades due to an increase in future winter temperature volatility and because of a growing and ageing population

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Mortality from extreme temperatures under climate change in Stockholm

The number of deaths due to cold and hot extreme temperatures attributable to climate change was estimated for Stockholm

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Urban heat island effect European cities

The urban heat island effect has been quantified for all cities in 38 European countries. It was shown that this effect varies over the seasons.

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Global air pollution-related premature mortality

21st century climate change increases global all-cause premature mortalities associated with PM2.5 by approximately 100,000 deaths and respiratory disease mortality

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Heat-related mortality in Moldova: the summer of 2007

2007 was one of the warmest in the history of instrumental observations in Greece, Romania and Moldova. The enumerated heat events caused 146 excess deaths in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova

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